Big Ben on the FTSE100

[Splitlink]

Short. Nearly made target, the went halfway from entry towards stop, now dithering about like a politician at the door of an adult cinema. Looks like it might go all the way to the US close.

Yours is a trend following system. Like mine, it will work when the direction is up or down. Until then, it's best to stand aside.

 

[tomorton]

Yours is a trend following system. Like mine, it will work when the direction is up or down. Until then, it's best to stand aside.

Split, I don't think trend-following is the full picture. That wouild suggest it would be more reliable taking longs in an uptrend or taking shorts in a downtrend. Whereas I think so far that trade direction within the mid-day period is not the key.

The system though does seem to be trend-sensitive, and for 2 obvious reasons.
1. Range. When the market is trending strongly we tend to get wide daily ranges, high to low. Big Ben needs a wide daily range to have sufficient 'headroom' to establish a range, break out of it, then travel on for the same distance in that direction. Entry for Big Ben is comparatively late and could be a third of the way across what turns out to be the daily range.
2. Force. A Big Ben trade would tend not to be stopped out on a day that started at the extreme of the daily range and travelled perpendicularly away from it, closing at the opposite end of the range. Such sessions occur often in strongly trending markets. Usually they would follow the direction of the trend but counter-trend reactions across a single session can be equally strong, but a Big Ben would work equally well on either.

I'm not convinced it's worth ignoring counter-trend Big Bens that present themselves. However, a trendless market might turn out to be very dangerous water but that just leads back to the old problem of how do we know a trend is ending? Soldiering on until I can think of a plan.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

so today we have a ss at 5535.8 which coincides with yesterday's low. bs at 5566 plus or minus what people add on for the spread etc

 

[Splitlink]

There's a slight tendency to weakness, I think. The hourly 24 av is falling slightly and if the price went above it, at present 5557, I might short. But I don't think that Big Ben is going to strike today, do you?.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

i think a dip below 36 or rally above 66 is fairly likely. interesting the range seems to have been around 30 points of late, i've not been checking but that's what it seems to me from what i remember

 

[barjon]

There's a slight tendency to weakness, I think. The hourly 24 av is falling slightly and if the price went above it, at present 5557, I might short. But I don't think that Big Ben is going to strike today, do you?.

Ah! The fireworks always start when you go off to work, Split

 

[Splitlink]

I'm afraid so!

 

[Mata Nui]

I have been away for a bit so not managed to keep up with the thread. What are your win/loss stats at the moment?

 

[tomorton]

No trade for me today, had to go off to a meeting. By my chart, if you had a 3pt buffer or less before the short order triggered between 1:30 and 2:00pm this would have been a wipe-out today for a 30pt loss. Lucky escape.

Over last 22 sessions it looks to me like 10 trades with profit target hit, 4 trades stopped out, 8 trades expired at US close (5 minor wins, 3 minor losses) and 2 sessions with no trade taken. Still well in profit, but disappointing to see the win rate decaying.

 

[tomorton]

I have high hopes for my Big Ben long today. Price has broken above the week's range, then fell back but found support at Tuesday's highs.

 

[Splitlink]

I have high hopes for my Big Ben long today. Price has broken above the week's range, then fell back but found support at Tuesday's highs.

There is an hourly pin there, though, that concerns me. The beauty of your system is that the breach of your range is your only concern. I do have a short order at 5595. Then it will be me with the worries.

 

[Splitlink]

I'm short has I write!

 

[Mr. G]

Will be volatile today with triple witching so could be a good time for a smaller position with wider stops....??

 

[Splitlink]

Will be volatile today with triple witching so could be a good time for a smaller position with wider stops....??

Well, Tom and I are in in different directions. My stop is well away but my stake is lower, today.

 

[Mr. G]

Going to be stopped out of the long. I wonder if it's worth shorting - a stop and reverse.

 

[Splitlink]

It hasn't happened yet. Haven't we all seen the damned thing bounce right on the level? Do you put your stop a little lower?

 

[Mr. G]

My stops are the low/high of the range +/- the IG spread which is a couple of points different to Tom but does make the RR slightly worse.

Stopped out.

 

[Mr. G]

There is an hourly pin there, though, that concerns me. The beauty of your system is that the breach of your range is your only concern. I do have a short order at 5595. Then it will be me with the worries.

You were right to be concerned about the pin, Split. It well and truly popped my BB trade.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

funny old day triple witching. 5500 close or 5600 close wouldn't surprise me. a good day for taking miles a way binary bets at £3 to win £97.

my short bias should pay me today. not saying it has paid over the last few months but hopefully will pay today

here is a visual of bb for anyone interested.

i still say on balance a entering bb with a stop is the right thing to do, you can always get long again if it crossed again and even if you lose 6 or 8 points twice a week getting stopped and re entering it's still cheaper than watching the whole range go against you.

as always, only through back testing will reveal if this gut ideas have any validity.

 

[pcrude]

Out for 25 ticks profit shorting Dec FTSE. Waited to put my orders in after Sep. expiry at 10.15. Sadly halved my position as downside trigger hadn't taken place before close 10-12 candlestick.