Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

My recent Crude Oil trade & Call at ET (will post thread link when given permission) April 29



Also shorted Crude Oil today. .... Short 63.52 stop 66.17 & closed Longs Friday.

Trade doing nicely. Today $57.87.


-------------------------------

Here's the test of fibo_trader - is he worth a shite? Can he take a beating in the bend in the trend, survive it, almost get killed by wrong entry into SPY, but but but still stay on his horse and ride the Crude Oil trend to its natural decay and death and then dig this, catch the bend in the trend again and ride it north bound to $500/barrel? We shall see. That is what the fibrous one wants to do. this is what he is about.

A trend surfer at heart there is no greater pleasure in this stupid existence/life of the fibrous one. Everything else bores the crap out of me. When the correcting wave starts eating up my profits, that there is no better test of my kahunas as I hold on and wait for the dominant trend to reassert itself. I could bail like all traders do and then reenter. Nah! Not for me. Stress? You don't know nothing. It kills and kills quickly. Abusing my system is what causes the drawdown.

The bend in the trend disappoints and frustrates the fibrous one because he is a quick mover but these friggin markets move soooooo damn slow in the bend in the trend its downright irritating and debilitating. And then you might find out that the bend was just that only a bend and the northbound trip continues. This then is what the fibrous one wants to conquer. Its LIFE or DEATH - I'm here for either one.



More from Land of smiles, a place where the load lifts right off my shoulders ......................................

 

[fibo_trader]

Here are my other trades as of April 29th posted at ET.

Will post the thread link as soon as I know its not breaking any rule. Lots of drama at ET, never a dull day, attacks are a way of life. The entire site was Sooo. unabashedly bullish, it was waaaayy beyond Euphoria.

I pointed this out, called it classic Herd behavior at major turns, but they were having none of it. I estimated that the Daily Sentiment Index for ET was 99% bulls. Statements that usually warn of a Top were commonplace, like Dow will rise forever, this market will never turn, FED will keep it going, NEW ERA, etc., etc.,

What got me banned in addition to engaging in fights & wall street language was my statement, "if it turns out I am correct in my call, what does that say about the so-called experts aka Elite Traders?

Public enemy #1. 😀😎



EEM short 43.97 stop 44.86

AXP short 116.68

QQQ short 191.2

SPY Short 294.38

Alll goood. Today's prices. EEM = 39.91, QQQ = 178.25, AXP = 118.43 (small loss thus far), SPY = 282.14 (this one has many short entries but as posted all are closed for a nice profit. Game begins now anew with this one as I will try to hammer it again for my orginal trend surf to the 2009 low if my analysis is still correct)


Thailand more ....................
Thailand Police compared to the commandos stateside - never give the fibrous one a ticket for speeding, instead offer me a business card with instructions to call them personally for any help I need as a foreigner. The fibrous one can do a "wai" with perfect precision - and? doors fly open . respect begets love from the thai people.

 

[fibo_trader]

The Thread PLAN revisited in a new unit of time.




BEAR market call still in effect. If TOP is taken out, CALL becomes both wrong and invalid.

So let's get to it BEFORE market action, and not in hindsight

See 1H chart below. Waves are numbered. We have a clear 5 waves down. Note that the 3rd wave subdivided into 5 itself and as usual wave 4 is a 3-legger, i.e. an a-b-c. So we have wave (1) down.

Then observe that the upwave marked as A is a 3-legger and so is the next wave of today down, a 3-legger.

This causes me to believe that we need a wave C up to complete the pattern of A-B-C, i.e. Wave (2)

If this scenario is correct, expect humongous effluvium, effluent, travail and torture during Wave (3) down. Banks are going to shudder. Some walls at Bank of America will collapse, Wells Fargo will become an out and out criminal bank (already there quite a bit). Keep eye on Chase Bank and Goldman Sachs. The talk of bail-ins will become a reality.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the above scenario is wrong, the top will be taken out and the BULL continues. Laffffter will be the best medicine for me. I don't mind. Its an occupational hazard.


Make no mistake about my CALL. Its 100% BEAR as per the thread. No iffs ands or buts. There are no excuses. No bs about going this way but being also right if it goes that way. None of this hocus pocus. BEAR 100% is my CALL.



Note: some astute cats will notice where SPY found support today. Why of course its at Fibo's house, the 23.6% Fibo level AGAIN. By the way this level also happens to be the 2800 SPX classical TA's support level that CNBC gurus keeep mentioning. What these classical chaps do not get is that the true support is actually at the AXIS of the congestion pattern correctly shown by FIBO level at 38.2% (daily chart)






Hourly SPY here

 

[fibo_trader]

sorry, just noticed something ...... its even more bearish than the alternative outlined in previous post.

SPY one-hour chart .... the drop since May 16 could just continue down without giving the rally first. The big gap down is throwing me off a bit. Gaps are usually a sign of a 3rd wave but sometimes a "b" can do this sort of stuff too. So if the market continue on down without giving the "C" wave I spoke of in prev. post, that's OK too. However its far more bearish which is in line with my BEAR CALL so no worries in that regard.

 

[new_trader]

How much did you lose? Btw, just keep in mind - Fed gradually downgrades inflation outlook so Fed-driven market bubble will continue to live for some time. Project S&P 500 at 3K in 3Q

Yes . The tape isn't showing any signs of a major top either, but it is giving very subtle signs that it is approaching. I'd give it at least another 12 - 18 months. It will be interesting to see if the FED caves in to Trumps demands for lower rates and more QE. That might be the catalyst for a blow-off top.

 

[fibo_trader]

The Thread PLAN revisited in a new unit of time.




BEAR market call still in effect. If TOP is taken out, CALL becomes both wrong and invalid.

So let's get to it BEFORE market action, and not in hindsight

See 1H chart below. Waves are numbered. We have a clear 5 waves down. Note that the 3rd wave subdivided into 5 itself and as usual wave 4 is a 3-legger, i.e. an a-b-c. So we have wave (1) down.

Then observe that the upwave marked as A is a 3-legger and so is the next wave of today down, a 3-legger.

This causes me to believe that we need a wave C up to complete the pattern of A-B-C, i.e. Wave (2)

If this scenario is correct, expect humongous effluvium, effluent, travail and torture during Wave (3) down. Banks are going to shudder. Some walls at Bank of America will collapse, Wells Fargo will become an out and out criminal bank (already there quite a bit). Keep eye on Chase Bank and Goldman Sachs. The talk of bail-ins will become a reality.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the above scenario is wrong, the top will be taken out and the BULL continues. Laffffter will be the best medicine for me. I don't mind. Its an occupational hazard.


Make no mistake about my CALL. Its 100% BEAR as per the thread. No iffs ands or buts. There are no excuses. No bs about going this way but being also right if it goes that way. None of this hocus pocus. BEAR 100% is my CALL.



Note: some astute cats will notice where SPY found support today. Why of course its at Fibo's house, the 23.6% Fibo level AGAIN. By the way this level also happens to be the 2800 SPX classical TA's support level that CNBC gurus keeep mentioning. What these classical chaps do not get is that the true support is actually at the AXIS of the congestion pattern correctly shown by FIBO level at 38.2% (daily chart)






Hourly SPY here


View attachment 263064

Done!
Yep, the called "C" wave is on - so we are completing the pattern in above chart. Note that SPY gapped up to where? why of course to the 38.2% Fibo projection of my said waves A-B. This is the minimum level for a Wave C. Therefore the minimum requirement is fulfilled. SPY could technically reverse right here and blast south to keep fibo_trader happy. But there are other lengths of wave C that are possible.

So, as per this premise of a Wave C, what are the other possible lengths of a C-wave in such a pattern which looks to me like a FLAT? Answer: C = 61.8% x A ....... and the most common, C = 100% x A (i.e. C=A).

So which of the 3 wave C possibilities will SPY hit? The answer to this particular question can only reliably be given in hindsight, hahahahahaha, so wait and see.



updated chart: see extreme right edge for the C wave in yellow. Marked are the 3 targets, 38.2%, 61.8% & 100%.

 

[fibo_trader]

Jambalaya son of a gun we'll have big fun on the bayou .........................

how magnificentissimo to observe in real time 1H and lower how SPY is interacting with the Fibo 38.2% at which it opened today with gap up. That is what resistance is and it is dead center of the gap, namely THE AXIS. Dig it baby!

 

[fibo_trader]

Next, gots to examine SPX on the monthly and in particular the obvious Expanding Triangle pattern on Daily at right edge (=now). I thought we might get a Diamond pattern but that is now dead as the higher high eliminates this. so Expanding Triangle it is. But what else might it be? How many waves are done since 2009?

 

[fibo_trader]

Alll goood. Today's prices. EEM = 39.91, QQQ = 178.25, AXP = 118.43 (small loss thus far), SPY = 282.14 (this one has many short entries but as posted all are closed for a nice profit. Game begins now anew with this one as I will try to hammer it again for my orginal trend surf to the 2009 low if my analysis is still correct)


Thailand more ....................
Thailand Police compared to the commandos stateside - never give the fibrous one a ticket for speeding, instead offer me a business card with instructions to call them personally for any help I need as a foreigner. The fibrous one can do a "wai" with perfect precision - and? doors fly open . respect begets love from the thai people.


View attachment 263056 View attachment 263057




View attachment 263058

Done: closed out shorts today on

EEM at 39.9

QQQ at 178.58

 

[fibo_trader]

Here are my other trades as of April 29th posted at ET.





EEM short 43.97 stop 44.86

AXP short 116.68

QQQ short 191.2

SPY Short 294.38

Remaining open trade is AXP (118.89) = small loss. Still open. All I need is just one more red bar to be in the green. Could have a red bar to put me in the green next week. Trendline is creaking. I've put a 1H trendline in the top subwave (purple). that one is broken, now I need a decisive move down.

 

[fibo_trader]

My next move in my trading is to take it to a vastly superior level. this will take some work and time. I need to really dig in and discover some new Fibo secrets. Wavecount is where there can be a whole lotta improvement but its a minefield and I know I'm totally on my own in this regard. I'll get there, that's just the way it is. The monk on Mount Gurushekar told me something that has worked for me in business especially in Sales closing. He said, "the Physical Universe that is made up of matter energy space and time has one major weakness/flaw when a live one (being) comes into it - it can run all sorts of stuff to trick/thwart/stymie the being but one thing it cannot do is defeat the persistent being who can take severe shots to the stomach, rise and attack again because DEATH is accepted as an outcome"

 

[fibo_trader]

Axiom #1 in fibo_trader's life: (needs work in consistent application)

Those who mind, don't matter - those who matter, don't mind.

 

[fibo_trader]

CALL: on interest rates

Nobody expecting it, all fast asleep at the wheel locked in the tight embrace of complacency. Boom! Interest Rates are ready to rocket north in a 3rd wave of epic degree when fibo-trader's trendline breaks out topside. Fasten seatbelts, hide and watch. Its going to get mean.

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contrary to popular belief that FED will/can keep Interest rates low and going to zero will be shattered. The Market commands the FED what to do. But the Pubic always has this backwards.

Suuuuuuuuuch a powerful country our USA, sooooooo much firepower but needs soooooooo much babysitting from the FED to keep interest rates low so the market and economy don't get spooked. That's power? What a crock! Wimp!



10-yr Yield chart:

 

[fibo_trader]

Wave count on Interest Rate downwave. I'm generally wrong by one sub-wave, hahahahaha. Let's see if I've improved? Haha, I doubt it, its too soon but I took the plunge, left all the gurus and books in the dust. I ride alone with just my bedroll and coffee pot.

 

[fibo_trader]

CALL on INDIA

Stock Market is on the verge of completing a massive 5-wave move from the 1970s up. The ramifications are huge. Market shot up 1500 points when PM won again. all that will be reversed and more. When 5 monthly timeframe waves are complete, all Hell breaks loose.

State Bank will offer gringos 8-22% return on USD deposits. And all the while the local currency, the rupee will be continuing its crash against the dollar (this is a long-term view) - Dollar/Rupee correction has brought Rupee to 68 from 75. When the dominant trend reasserts itself, this will head to 80-100.

Goa will be incredibly cheap for gringos who are thesssselves broke stateside and want to escape.

Modi will pull some more heavy stuff like he did in 2016 ......................

good news is that The Ideal Cafe in flora Fountain will still be serving Custard Pudding regardless the Economy.

 

[fibo_trader]

TRADING wins as THE GAME OF THE UNIVERSE. Sublime game. There is no second place contender. And like Astrophysics & other such subjects it has depth and verve that stretches to infinity. Add to that, which the others don't have, it can kill you and your family easily. And there is no denying that first moment when it was broached to you and your first thought was, "this is eternal freedom with almost zero investment in office space, staff, et., etc., ). Most play it like its a Famine. Me? I know the risks. I know I can die in a heartbeat. Since when is FEAR going to stop an Alpha?


When I started it was not long before I said to the "hers" I dig/love ............. "soon you will be able to cut the bread slices as big as a door if you want to"


At 3:06

 

[fibo_trader]

Metro Bank is the starter of the waterfall?

What a beautiful thing it is to be a technical financial market player. No need to bother with Earnings, Balance Sheets, who's doing whom, who ripped who off, bad news, good news, zip, you need nothing. Only the Open, High, Low, Close, Volume. Nobody has yet decided to fudge these numbers because they know all technicians are deadbeats and lose consistently. So we are left with the ONLY TRUE facts in the entire financial world, i.e. O, H, L, C

So we can add yet one more free gift from God to Air & Water. So the gifts in total are: Air, Water, OHLC, TLs

So let's have a look at Metro chart. First-est glance, boom I see the triangle marked ABCDE. This is a Wave 4 aka the penultimate wave. So next wave up is the terminal wave. CLEAR OUT on wave 4 or stay till wave 5, but if you do stay, make sure you skedaddle as soon as the trendline gets hammered. A trendline of consequence is the one that passes thru' the low or "E" of a Wave 4.. Personally I time the internals of the 5th wave and get out on the violation of the 4th of the 5th. But you already know how careless I am.

 

[fibo_trader]

Metro Bank:


see the wave numbers? Now notice the 3rd of 3 marked as 3/3. That is the part of wave 3 where even the hardcore bullmarket callers will drop to their knees and recognize, "we're screwed" Been happening for eons in the History. Will never change. So specifically for Metro Bank, this is how long it takes for depositors to recognize the gig has been long over and they are the last to find out.

Only Fibo can save these cats

There were no dollars in 'em biblical days but sobs, yeah

 

[fibo_trader]

Metro Bank:


Now dig the slope(s) of the blue downtrendlines. Not not only the huge jump in slope of the recognition wave but also how perfect all 3 lines are w.r.t. contact points.

Bank managers are saying there is nothing wrong and people are exaggerating, hahahahahahha. And dig this, financial analysts want you to buy buy buy on the last few days of rising prices. LOLITA!

 

[fibo_trader]

Keep 20k USD in cash in your house, not in any safety box or place you have no control over. Keep small denominations for food etc. When ATMs close for days YOU will be OK. Do not get cott with no cash on hand. The digital game is a killer. Banks have already adopted the bail-in worldwide so your money is theirs in a crisis.

The whole outhouse is going up in flames.