Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Hey guys ....................... over the week end study up on one of the worst traders known to man - Winston Churchill. He had no clue about tops/bottoms and dig this, was a student and personal friend of my buddy Bernard Baruch, my teacher from day #1. Bernard was so wise, so aware of his surroundings, so aware of the sentiment of the crazy crowd, that he could have saved Winston. But Winston did not listen. He got hammered.

What must have surely killed Winston was the round-trip dizziness of prices shooting up then down. Like the dow doing a frightening 1500 p0int roundtrip in a heartbeat. Poor Winston.


Newweek.com has the article in full. Enjoy

Winston's checking account was already sooooo overdrawn he was a goddamn fool to enter the market without straightening this out first. But like so many giddy, greedy dumb investor/gamblers he plunged it. Got buggered bigtime.



Nevertheless, in a newspaper column he wrote a month later, Churchill showed that the Crash had not dislodged his abiding sense of America's strength and resilience. Within a decade this instinct would shape his wartime strategy and ultimately transform his finances.



Yeah baby, they be everywhere, losers, losers, losers, clueless cats with no idea about Finance like a flock of sheep.

Nod goes to Bernard Baruch who saved Winnie from further huge losses ...............

 

[fibo_trader]

Deflation, Deflation, Deflation .................. say what? but THEY (experts) are ALL saying and screaming and screeching, Inflation

But here's the thing: they do not see the humor of BEAR. He wants to send the United States to Japan Way ...... Deflation started in 1990, they've never recovered. We be the next japan

A nice, nice way to look at the thunderlips of Deflation is thru' Crude Oil

 

[fibo_trader]

Deflation, Deflation, Deflation .................. say what? but THEY (experts) are ALL saying and screaming and screeching, Inflation

But here's the thing: they do not see the humor of BEAR. He wants to send the United States to Japan Way ...... Deflation started in 1990, they've never recovered. We be the next japan

A nice, nice way to look at the thunderlips of Deflation is thru' Crude Oil

Crude Oil's thunderlips of Deflation as called by Fibo for years ............................


(1) posted Nov 29 when Crude was at $58 Big Joe said ............ target is DEFLATION which will take Crude Oil down to $10 and wipe these mofos out.
Post #311 .................. see middle paragraph

Islamaphobia

Define HATE? At 2:05 - 2:07 I like clint, but your perception is wrong. Off to the hottub.........laters.

www.trade2win.com

(3) posted March 15, 2020 post #1595, page 107 this thread itself ..... When Crude Oil was around $31.8 "Crude Oil next station for refreshments = $23.5 "




(4) see post# 1875 here in this thread itself ......... March 28 when Crude was at $21.65 ............ "Observe what's happening to Crude Oil. Can you dig it? Fibo called this years ago - the FireSale .................
But it will as it heads to oblivion"


(5) post #1914 this thread itself .............. see weekly chart shown where I gave my target a while back for $25 and $10


Can you dig it? Any questions? Raise your hand so I can have a good look at you'll

 

[fibo_trader]

Re: post #6063 (above)


Crude Oil's thunderlips of Deflation as called by Fibo for years ............................


a barrel of crude oil became at one point this year, a few months ago, effectively cheaper than it was in year 1870. But amigos, lllegue Inflacion a 3000% y stock market up up up by thousands of percent.

Raise your hand if you have a better example of Deflation. Come on, don't be shy!

 

[fibo_trader]

Hey guys ................. now dig this ...................... the Public is now in high consensus that the danger has passed. The deaths will stop. Peace will prevail. Things will get back to normal. Business will go back to pre-pandemic levels and then accelerate north to reven more book years of the everything bubble

Remember that in so many posts I mentioned that this level of complacency is what BEAR wants and needs before he unleashes the next ultra crash wave down.

Its been hard to time it by PRICE. But the cracks in the concrete are proven already by Fibo. But Price and only Price will be the sole determinant of when WAVE 3 has arrived. It could arrive Monday but thus far it has eluded me. But I stay vigilant and try not to expose my flanks.

There are many things I am watching .................. just one of them is the Corporate Bonds minus 10-yr Treasury Yield equation - why? because buyers of bonds will demand to be compensated heavily for RISK as it climbs exponentially, ie. seen in yield differential rising logarithmically. See wave count for this equation I created and then plotted in Metastock

 

[fibo_trader]

Hey guys ................. now dig this ...................... the Public is now in high consensus that the danger has passed. The deaths will stop. Peace will prevail. Things will get back to normal. Business will go back to pre-pandemic levels and then accelerate north to reven more book years of the everything bubble

Remember that in so many posts I mentioned that this level of complacency is what BEAR wants and needs before he unleashes the next ultra crash wave down.

Its been hard to time it by PRICE. But the cracks in the concrete are proven already by Fibo. But Price and only Price will be the sole determinant of when WAVE 3 has arrived. It could arrive Monday but thus far it has eluded me. But I stay vigilant and try not to expose my flanks.

There are many things I am watching .................. just one of them is the Corporate Bonds minus 10-yr Treasury Yield equation - why? because buyers of bonds will demand to be compensated heavily for RISK as it climbs exponentially, ie. seen in yield differential rising logarithmically. See wave count for this equation I created and then plotted in Metastock


View attachment 289131

Notice how nicely the corrective wave came down to the golden ration (61.8%) and the 200-month ema. Wave 2 looks complete. Note that this is a monthly chart so timing is blunt. The next leg up is Wave 3, aka the killer wave. Corporate bonds will perish en masse.

Hide and watch

 

[fibo_trader]

Layoffs, layoffs, layoffs are in a bull market ........................ Disney let go 28k workers and and airlines another 32k (check figures for accuracy) + others are piling it on real thick

 

[fibo_trader]

Hey guys ................. now dig this ...................... the Public is now in high consensus that the danger has passed. The deaths will stop. Peace will prevail. Things will get back to normal. Business will go back to pre-pandemic levels and then accelerate north to reven more book years of the everything bubble

Remember that in so many posts I mentioned that this level of complacency is what BEAR wants and needs before he unleashes the next ultra crash wave down.

Its been hard to time it by PRICE. But the cracks in the concrete are proven already by Fibo. But Price and only Price will be the sole determinant of when WAVE 3 has arrived. It could arrive Monday but thus far it has eluded me. But I stay vigilant and try not to expose my flanks.

There are many things I am watching .................. just one of them is the Corporate Bonds minus 10-yr Treasury Yield equation - why? because buyers of bonds will demand to be compensated heavily for RISK as it climbs exponentially, ie. seen in yield differential rising logarithmically. See wave count for this equation I created and then plotted in Metastock


View attachment 289131

For those interested in doing their own work their own work/interpretation, i.e. those who prefer to think for themselves instead of just blindly following the HERD ......................... the equation is available for download on FRED's webiste (St. Louis Federal Reserve) ................ there's other stuff there about the Economy. All good. Raw data is like food for Fibo. Once I have that, I got everything. All interpretation can be done SOLO. Thanks to FRED for the raw data. What a country!!!

 

[fibo_trader]

Fibo is waiting & waiting for PRICE aka The King to give me a sign that the Killer Wave has arrived. Heck yes, I knew it would not be easy but I sure as heck did not expect it to be so difficult to time its arrival. To time its arrival all we need to do is look at the recovery wave rally that started March 23rd. This is the recovery/rally wave. When its over, the killer wave has to begin. In most cases I get it right on the money with hardly too much difficulty. But this time its been difficult and long drawn out. Then things got even more complicated when the SPX & Nas took out the top. In a way that was good because it told me definitively that the crash was only wave 4 and therefore the current wave is the terminal one, a Wave 5.

 

[fibo_trader]

A sobering and froy-tening thought: If the Corona crash was an internal Wave 4, imagine what the crash will be and look like when it really gets underway. This brings it to 3 degrees of TREND whereas I had originally computed it to be 2 degrees of TREND.

So, wtf to do? Nada! Not a damn thing. Continue living while waiting and expecting the killer at any dawn. I'm ready. So, in the meantime, to not get bored, I review the Economics Professors and Nobel Prize winners' assessments of the cracks in the concrete in the real Economy (i.e. on the ground instead of PRICE) ............... The Economy cracks lag Price by months. THEY used to say the lag was 18 months. Hahahahaha, PRICE proved them all wrong when Corona fired only weeks after the Feb 12 Dow Jones Top. And dig this: the Asians had already started their bs in January but it did not show up in PRICE ................... except that Fibo know-ed that that last wave up to Feb 12 (Dow top) was the terminal upwave. Complicated? Yeah baby, dig it!

These are very special times. Don't deprive yourselves of the privilege of witnessing live the greatest event in 75 million years of EARTH. The only larger event than what's a-coming is the one that happened 68 million years ago (Dinosaur event) but I believe they got the date slightly wrong in that it should be 75 million not 68

 

[fibo_trader]

Dr. Richard Wolff is one such heavy Professor ............... good reasoning and thinking but he knows nothing about TA & Price. His approach is different as in there are many roads that lead to Rome

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky #1 ......................... try to get Trader333 not to ban me for Lifetime this time, because now, this time, your own Bank of England confirms my thread call of Jan 2018, but it took them 2.5 years to realize this.


see posts # 5,300, 5,301 for specific mention of the Bank of England.

Then see this: read fully, Sharky, Bank of England truly sees the whole picture and even compares with History. High marks by Fibo

news.bitcoin.com/bank-of-england-worst-economic-crash-300-years-uk/

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky #2 ............................................. in case it was too much to read, this chart from the article ought to suffice to get the point across, namely, Fibo's BEAR is the greatest BEAR in England's entire history confirmed and called by none other than the BANK OF ENGLAND. Jesus H Christ, Sharky, England has even taken out the year 1701 Low.

Then go back and search for how many times I warned in this thread that almost ALL members would miss it and conclude that the danger has passed and that there was never any BEAR market at all, at all, at all.

Here's what I wrote 18 times and counting ............................. Post # 5,651

When it comes ......................... remember this .....................
It came with a surrealistic slowness ... so gradually that on the one hand it was possible to live through a good part of it without realizing that it was happening and on the other hand, it was possible to believe one had experienced and survived it when in fact it had no more than just begun.

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky #3 ................................. when driving around in London and passing near any food banks, open eyes, be aware, knock down a cup of coffee and then look carefully at the cars waiting in line for their food supplies. Repeat the process every week.

Why?


You will notice a BEAR market stunner of a revelation ............................

the quality of the cars in line is ever increasing .................


weeks/months ago it was mostly worn out old cars, then it jumped to include nice cars, then it jumped to including Mercs, Lexus, Cadillacs, Lincolns ................... now a few Porsches etc., ...... the Porsches are a sign that the center line of the middleclass has now been eroded by BEAR. When Ferraris, Lambos, Bentleys show up, it will be a definitive sign that the upper notch middleclass has been penetrated.

Fasten seatbelts, hide and watch

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky #4 ............................. take a bow, Sharky

UK's leading DATA visualization Agency ............... furthr ............. keep Fibo in mind when you read this w.r.t. the unanimous "ban Fibo" syndrome ...............


If a decision is unanimous, it’s wrong, says new study

If a decision is unanimous, it’s probably wrong. The chances of everyone being correct is very small indeed, says a new study.

In a new paper to be published in The Proceedings of The Royal Society A, a team of researchers, Lachlan J. Gunn, et al., from Australia and France has investigated the “paradox of unanimity.”

Getting a large group of unanimous witnesses is so unlikely, according to the laws of probability, that it’s more likely that the system is unreliable.

 

[fibo_trader]

Jezz Fibo was only unemployment data.

You easy wound up bet you have high blood pressure.

Guess I won't be meeting you in Australia or NZ for a cup of tea.

Good evening, Oscar,


Tea/coffee/beer still on

Reminder: Trading is WAR. Those who show up with a knife for this gunfight are ........................... 97% traders

 

[fibo_trader]

A celebration is due for Fibo as even in the domain of Fundamental Analysis there is no quicker cat ......................

Center for Disease Control (CDC) said this (in Fibo jargon about Waves)

The 1918 influenza pandemic occurred in three waves and was the most severe pandemic in history.​

They said .................................. There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

So Fibo points this out: What they call 3 waves is just referring to the upwaves. They ignore the downwaves aka recovery waves. In Fibo's Wave parlance there are 5-wave moves (3 upwaves and 2 downwaves) with the 3rd wave being the strongest. As happened in the Pandemic above. Q.E.D.

Notice that the 5th wave was truncated.

Dig it, baby.


How will this particular Pandemic of 2020 play out? 5 waves or 3-3-5. The 2nd one refers to an A-B-C correction that goes in the 3-3-5 format. We wait to observe whether this latter one is what BEAR has n mind.

 

[fibo_trader]

Hey guys ....................... over the week end study up on one of the worst traders known to man - Winston Churchill. He had no clue about tops/bottoms and dig this, was a student and personal friend of my buddy Bernard Baruch, my teacher from day #1. Bernard was so wise, so aware of his surroundings, so aware of the sentiment of the crazy crowd, that he could have saved Winston. But Winston did not listen. He got hammered.

What must have surely killed Winston was the round-trip dizziness of prices shooting up then down. Like the dow doing a frightening 1500 p0int roundtrip in a heartbeat. Poor Winston.


Newweek.com has the article in full. Enjoy

Winston's checking account was already sooooo overdrawn he was a goddamn fool to enter the market without straightening this out first. But like so many giddy, greedy dumb investor/gamblers he plunged it. Got buggered bigtime.



Nevertheless, in a newspaper column he wrote a month later, Churchill showed that the Crash had not dislodged his abiding sense of America's strength and resilience. Within a decade this instinct would shape his wartime strategy and ultimately transform his finances.



Yeah baby, they be everywhere, losers, losers, losers, clueless cats with no idea about Finance like a flock of sheep.

Nod goes to Bernard Baruch who saved Winnie from further huge losses ...............

For Sharky .......................... Bernard Baruch, my teacher & Winston Churchill's best friend in America ................ lessons from Bernard Baruch ......................... Bernard advised Presidents and invited Winston to follow his lead and play the Great Depression era of trading and then had to bail Winston out in some part when the latter screwed up bigtime. Winston was a crowd follower like your army here but Bernard was anything but. Bernard was the one who said this in concept, "when the taxi drivers and waiters and low wage earners start telling me that the stock market only goes up and is the easiest money in the world, I call my broker instantly and get out 100% = SELL SELL SELL.


(1) Never follow the crowd

T2W: Trashing the forums; damaged reputation; losing newbies

If I were a newbie member, I would most likely read the latest "hot" threads, and possibly read the last couple of pages of a thread, before deciding if I should read a thread from the beginning. For example, I would read last couple of pages of NVPs thread, realise its quality, and start from...

www.trade2win.com

(2) Millions saw the apple fall but Newton (like Fibo) was the only one who asked, "why?"

(3) I made my money by selling too soon

(4) Nobody ever lost money taking a profit

(5) The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible

(6) Sharky, here is the creme de las creme that even Winston proclaimed that Bernard was godlike ...................... Winston worshipped Bernard, rightly so. Bernard said, "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind"


Sharky, read #6 .................... 5+ times and especially if Trader333 tells you its an insult as its anything but. Its the highest compliment one can give to another.

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky ......................... the only one here who can apply this concept successfully to his own trading and life ............ my compliments and best wishes



Bernard Baruch's Never follow the crowd lesson ..................... examples series ...................

(1) Remember the 2008 CRASH of the stock market and almost the entire world? Sure you do!! Who would forget such a disaster near death experience? Niemand

(2) Ben Bernanke was Federal Reserve Chairman and Hank Paulson was Treasury Secretary, 2 of the most powerful cats in the entre world of finance and both were Goldman Sachs gurus.

(3) Sharky, sit down and grasp this concept: Gurus are not worth the paper they are printed on: these 2 cats said this stuff before and during and all the way thru' the CRASH ....................


from post # 2,808

FED Chief = Ben Bernanke ............. Treasury Secretary = Hank Paulson
June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: The mortgage debacle “will not affect the economy overall.''
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us . . . . ”
May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."
July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: On Freddie and Fannie: “They will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"
Only two months later both were nationalized.
February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."





This is why the teaching of Bernard Baruch is so vital to our survival as traders. Fibo grasped this concept from Bernard from day #1 and threw all other books on Finance out the window or to Goodwill (thousands of dollars in books - I felt so light thereafter I was walking on clouds))

 

[fibo_trader]

For Sharky ......................... continuation ......................


when you see a Barron's newsletter cover or a Newsweek or Time magazine cover or Wall Street Journal headline or any such magazine or noted publication put out giddy stuff like ths, got out immediately and SELL SELL SELL. Why? Becasue such dumbphucks are always the last to get on a dying BULL.. Ditto for Central Banks worldwide. At major turns one gots to do the opposite of these dumbphucks or else death follows swiftly. Nobody at T2W knows this lesson. Nobody. But you do, instinctively. Cement it, Sharky, cultivate it, it will make you proud.

Global Officials: “Everything Is Under Control”​

Presidential Bragging​

How Fibo cott the March 23rd bottom of the crash right here at T2W

“Cash Is Trash”​

Most investors agree that Ray Dalio is a smart guy, but sometimes, even smart guys get it wrong. His hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, was overweight high-beta stocks during the crash, resulting in a 20% loss in February alone.

Weeks before at Davos 2020, Dalio said publicly that, “cash is trash,” but judging by the aftermath, it’s something that will haunt him for the rest of his investing career. This is a lesson for us all: When even the most intelligent investors fall for the fake optimism and believe stocks will rise indefinitely, you know the market is overdue for a correction.

Quotes from Federal Reserve Chairmen That Sound Like Famous Last Words​

Everyone remembers the famous quote from former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who, just before the subprime collapse, stated, “Subprime is contained,” and from Bernanke’s predecessor, Janet Yellen, who said, “We’ll never see another recession in my lifetime.”

This time, it was the turn of recently appointed head honcho, Jerome Powell, to provide us with a market-topper: “Short-term interest rates are under control.” Low and behold, a month later, repo market chaos leaked into the stock market and trillions of dollars of wealth disappeared in a matter of minutes during the sharpest stock market crash on record.

Jim Cramer Can’t Find Any Sellers​

When the biggest stock market bull in the game gets bearish vocally on Twitter, you know something serious is about to go down. After Cramer tweeted, the S&P500 proceeded to fall over 30%. Let that sink in.



Jim Cramer right at the Feb 19th Top (the day of the crash start) ...................... tweeted ................

what the hell is happening? Where are the sellers??