Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Just comparing the markets you have posted above ; (BLUE LINE SPY TRACKING ON NYSE COMP CANDLES)

First observation, the first touch of the resistance have both occurred around the same time (May19)

Second observation - NASDAQ looks like it leads SPY ever so marginally.View attachment 264919

Yeah. And if you ever want to figure out whether you should be investing stateside as opposed to in UK from an index standpoint, just do a composite index calculation like London FTSE divided by SPX and draw the chart. Then decide where to invest. Dame technique for the entire world. These charts are to be done on monthly and weekly and done just once per lifetime - as they get updated they can be viewed every quarter to stay on top of WHERE TO INVEST?

 

[fibo_trader]

Post that other chart that I mentioned regarding your wavecount that I could not understand .................

 

[ssam]

Ausgezeichnet Sontag, Herr Sam,

"0" should be place on an intermediate wave low, not minor wave low. Like "2" for example

"3" and "4" are incorrect as the wave structure is telling you that a subdivision is occurring. this is a bit advanced so I will explain just as soon as you tell me the instrument

Ah sorry - Yes this is S&P500.

Will try the recounting - I will try this with both S&P again and another FX pair. But will tell you what they are this time....

 

[ssam]

Post that other chart that I mentioned regarding your wavecount that I could not understand .................

Salute Fibo - must be beer o'clock for you guys soon.

Here I have counted the main waves on S&P in purple, looks like currently we are in 4th main wave.

The black lines are for me counting the subwaves up, down, up, down. Swing high, swing low, to swing high etc...

Why only count to 5 waves?

 

[fibo_trader]

Ah sorry - Yes this is S&P500.

Will try the recounting - I will try this with both S&P again and another FX pair. But will tell you what they are this time....

OK good. And remember before you start .... always start from a significant LOW. such a LOW can be defined as the all time Low or an intermediate low, i.e, a low after a sifgnificant correction in an uptrend. The starting point is very important. OK then, give it a shot. Post chart with wavecount. Put in fibs, trendlines etc., if you wnt to.

 

[ssam]

Some nice developments on the CADNZD by the looks of things;

Price looks like it heading down to 50 EMA which it has respected very nicely previously.

RSI also supporting downward trend.

DAILY

STILL DAILY BUT SHOT OF CURRENT PRICE

As always - no trading advice in this. Just my thoughts.

 

[fibo_trader]

Salute Fibo - must be beer o'clock for you guys soon.

Here I have counted the main waves on S&P in purple, looks like currently we are in 4th main wave.

The black lines are for me counting the subwaves up, down, up, down. Swing high, swing low, to swing high etc...

Why only count to 5 waves? View attachment 264921

Excellent progress. Alll correct at face value except for one thing. You see where you marked the "1" at the December lows? And then marked 2,3,4 in the opp direction? The 5 waves must be in the same direction. I'll do the same chart for clarification purposes ..................

Hahahahahahaha, you sure as heck picked the most complicated Wave in History, the wave that is baffling the daylights out of robert Prechter and given me headaches too. But never mind its a start.

See how the drop into December low is 1-2-3? This means a 3-wave structure. Then see the rise from Dec to today? A-B-C, also a 3-wave move. Wave A is made up of a-b and then 5 internal waves.

This chart is actually out gradient for you, Sam. It is very complicated. but hey, its still worth it to mess with it.

 

[fibo_trader]

Some nice developments on the CADNZD by the looks of things;

Price looks like it heading down to 50 EMA which it has respected very nicely previously.

RSI also supporting downward trend.

DAILY

View attachment 264922


STILL DAILY BUT SHOT OF CURRENT PRICE
View attachment 264923


As always - no trading advice in this. Just my thoughts.

Very very very very important ........ see where you marked "2" ? Go back to your chart and see if "2" is below "0" ?

if it is, its a violation. Wave 2 cannot end below the origin of wave 1. Dig?

 

[fibo_trader]

Later amigo(s) ....................................

 

[fibo_trader]

 

[ssam]

Very very very very important ........ see where you marked "2" ? Go back to your chart and see if "2" is below "0" ?

if it is, its a violation. Wave 2 cannot end below the origin of wave 1. Dig?

Still short bias on the pair - have had another play around with the numbers.

You were right on the previous 2, you will see ive put a horizontal line showing this is below the now '0'.

Slowly getting these rules, S.L.O.W.L.Y.

 

[ssam]

More charts - Another - today has been wave counting day.

USD-EUR - bearish view to the touch of the lower trend line (green TP) but a strong bullish bounce off the lower trend line, (green) Put a paper trade on whilst I still try out this new stuff out.

slightly more detail on the 4hr, RSI also reducing.

0 at the low, 1 at swing high, 2, swing low above 0, 3 swing high above 1, 4 swing low below 3 but above 2 and 5 swing high.

DAILY BELOW- showing sub waves in read and main in purple.

 

[fibo_trader]

Since you mentioned GBPJPY so many times ................ the same chart I gave you is still in effect on both daily and 4H. NO ENTRY LONG YET

SHORT continues unabated since March 2019. Current daily chart green bar is visiting my trendline to say Hi

View attachment 264831

GBPJPY still hugging and respecting the Fibo trendline , I mean really kissing and hugging it won't let go, hahahahahha. Haven't changed a thing. SHORT since March continues unabated. Even RSI has not yet made it to the trendline

 

[fibo_trader]

More charts - Another - today has been wave counting day.

USD-EUR - bearish view to the touch of the lower trend line (green TP) but a strong bullish bounce off the lower trend line, (green) Put a paper trade on whilst I still try out this new stuff out.

slightly more detail on the 4hr, RSI also reducing.

0 at the low, 1 at swing high, 2, swing low above 0, 3 swing high above 1, 4 swing low below 3 but above 2 and 5 swing high.

View attachment 264929




DAILY BELOW- showing sub waves in read and main in purple.

View attachment 264927

Without trading consideration - very good wavecounting.

Your next step is to put in the A-B-C of the corrective wave after a 5-wave move has completed.

I would suggest that you take a much larger view here just for practice purposes by looking at the USD from 2008 low, just so you know the trend direction so you can also get the A-B-Cs

 

[fibo_trader]

View attachment 264926


Still short bias on the pair - have had another play around with the numbers.

You were right on the previous 2, you will see ive put a horizontal line showing this is below the now '0'.

Slowly getting these rules, S.L.O.W.L.Y.

good work

 

[ssam]

good work

Thanks Fibo - will see if I can get some time at the desk to have a go at the ABC's.

Blows my mind your about to get some shut eye and I am just about to cycle to the station.

 

[fibo_trader]

Thanks Fibo - will see if I can get some time at the desk to have a go at the ABC's.

Blows my mind your about to get some shut eye and I am just about to cycle to the station.

OK good. Remember that you've been doing the 5 wave up. So logical next step is the 3 wave down aka A-B-C. Then you have a complete sequence.

 

[ssam]

Excellent progress. Alll correct at face value except for one thing. You see where you marked the "1" at the December lows? And then marked 2,3,4 in the opp direction? The 5 waves must be in the same direction. I'll do the same chart for clarification purposes ..................

Hahahahahahaha, you sure as heck picked the most complicated Wave in History, the wave that is baffling the daylights out of robert Prechter and given me headaches too. But never mind its a start.

See how the drop into December low is 1-2-3? This means a 3-wave structure. Then see the rise from Dec to today? A-B-C, also a 3-wave move. Wave A is made up of a-b and then 5 internal waves.

This chart is actually out gradient for you, Sam. It is very complicated. but hey, its still worth it to mess with it.



View attachment 264925

This makes my brain hurt !

Maybe I should grasp the fundamentals of Elliot wave, also from the stuff I have watched/listened too at my desk... this ties in nicely with the Fibonacci.

Certainly more complete than the supply zones and bollinger bouncers I be been playing with for a wee while.

No luck drawing my ABC, but I get the 5 waves up, abc retrace down, 5 waves up, abc retrace down principle. Albeit extremely loosely.

 

[fibo_trader]

This makes my brain hurt !

Maybe I should grasp the fundamentals of Elliot wave, also from the stuff I have watched/listened too at my desk... this ties in nicely with the Fibonacci.

Certainly more complete than the supply zones and bollinger bouncers I be been playing with for a wee while.

No luck drawing my ABC, but I get the 5 waves up, abc retrace down, 5 waves up, abc retrace down principle. Albeit extremely loosely.

Not to worry. Ignore the name Elliott. The Universe does not give a rat's ass about what anybody names its natural waves. Let the waves just be waves. Just the basics of the 5-3 pattern, the complex corrective patterns and a few other concepts is all you need. One well created tutorial should solve this. I'll have a look see if I can dig up such a tutorial done by Jeffrey Kennedy a while back.

The great thing about Waves is that it is obvious the Market moves in waves as does Electromagnetism, Fluid dynamics, Ocean Waves, blood waves/pulses and so on. The waves of the HEART, the body's pump demonstrate this clearly. Its a given. Wave theory also takes the mystery out of, "how far will the stock go?" Heck, it will always go 5 waves and then do a big correction for which you want to get out of the way or go short to the 38.2% - 61.8% retracement level. then the Primary trend continues in yet another 5.

 

[fibo_trader]

Now don't go crazy and start subscribing to all sorts of stuff on the Internet. You don't need to. Just watch Jeffrey's videos when they come out - no charge and get a feel for it.

4 Critical Elements of High-Confidence Trading :: Elliott Wave International

In this intensive course, Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you about the 4 elements he analyzes on a chart before he makes a trade. He’ll teach you his method and show you real-market examples so you can use these elements each time you consider a trade.

www.elliottwave.com