Asian Coronavirus Outbreak

[postman]

I suppose that if you include the deceased in the herd count then the immunity stats look increasingly better:

If your over 55 with a pre existing health condition then socially isolate, if not you are extremely unlikely to be affected by it. These figures from New York mirror those in the UK.

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

 

[timsk]

. . .What I mean is they should immediately notify their GP that they abandon their rights to NHS treatment against the virus. They should then reinforce this by drafting a living will rejecting medial intervention should they fall unconscious as a result.

Tom,
I think you're on a sticky wicket with this one. As n_t rightly points out in his subsequent post, there are many other people in lots of other categories who this principle must surely apply to. And when you've gone beyond the obvious (smokers, obese etc.) the next group are those who willingly engage in activities that have some inherent risk attached to them. Should rugby players abandon their rights to NHS treatment? As an angler that fishes our beautiful rugged (and dangerous) Devon coastline - should I abandon my right to NHS treatment? Continue down that road and, eventually, you'll arrive at the conclusion that anyone foolish enough to get out of bed in the morning should abandon their rights to NHS treatment!
Tim.

 

[new_trader]

I don't disagree, except on the question of urgency.

It's not urgent. I have been saying for years that I am being forced to pay for people who refuse to follow the advice of health professionals. I exercise, I don't smoke, I hardly ever drink alcohol and I also have private health insurance.

I would gladly opt out of NHS as long as the Government no longer has a right to tell me how to live my life, and I no longer pay any extra tax on things designed to reduce consumption of unhealthy foods, like the completely immoral sugar tax.

 

[tomorton]

Tom,
I think you're on a sticky wicket with this one. As n_t rightly points out in his subsequent post, there are many other people in lots of other categories who this principle must surely apply to. And when you've gone beyond the obvious (smokers, obese etc.) the next group are those who willingly engage in activities that have some inherent risk attached to them. Should rugby players abandon their rights to NHS treatment? As an angler that fishes our beautiful rugged (and dangerous) Devon coastline - should I abandon my right to NHS treatment? Continue down that road and, eventually, you'll arrive at the conclusion that anyone foolish enough to get out of bed in the morning should abandon their rights to NHS treatment!
Tim.

As I said, I don't disagree with extending the principle.

The NHS has already seriously skewed public spending / taxation. In principle, it has the capacity to bankrupt the country. So we need to do some serious things to ensure it remains available to everyone who needs it on health grounds.

The universal approach would be increase taxation - taxation is universal and so is healthcare entitlement.

But a supplementary approach might be via specific exemptions / insurance requirements.

e.g.
If, heaven forbid, Lewis Hamilton returns to Formula 1 and suffers serious injury in a crash during a race, should he get the last available ICU bed, or should it be the guy who just fell off his ladder while cleaning windows?

 

[tomorton]

It's not urgent. I have been saying for years that I am being forced to pay for people who refuse to follow the advice of health professionals. I exercise, I don't smoke, I hardly ever drink alcohol and I also have private health insurance.

I would gladly opt out of NHS as long as the Government no longer has a right to tell me how to live my life, and I no longer pay any extra tax on things designed to reduce consumption of unhealthy foods, like the completely immoral sugar tax.

What I mean is there is no outright justification for not adopting a new policy urgently because it would not apply to everybody immediately.

I don't disagree that our system of universally available healthcare is a financial minefield.

 

[Oscar Reed]

Long or Short.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers

We are managing the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia as a health emergency. We will update this page every day by 9 pm AEST with the current situation, latest case numbers and related information.

www.health.gov.au

 

[cantagril]

One of those "If you get it you die" memes...In other words. The difference between living and dying of Covid-19 is precisely 6.0000000000ft...I think I accidentally stood 5.99999999999ft away from someone while shopping....oh well, I suppose I'm going to die now...

Weeeell, it was nice knowing you NT😭

Quite obviously, 6 feet/2 metres is, as has been hammered home again and again, a minimum. Personally, unless there is really no option, I keep 4/5 metres away from people standing still or walking slowly and 10+ metres from f***ing stupid panting spraying joggers.

In my youth (not nearly as misspent as I would have liked) I did a stint in production engineering for an automotive component manufacturing company, where I learned far more than I wanted about airflow and carburation . This has perhaps given me an over-sensitivity to how sprays and vapour behave.

Needless to say, when I'm doing a run to the supermarket, I go in fully masked and gloved and do so when there are few people about. Once inside, I treat everyone as if they have Ebola, not CV19 and on my safe return home I burn all my clothes, spend a few minutes in the vapour degreasing chamber and follow that up with a 7 stage surface prep and cold phosphate regime. After that, I usually have a coffee.

 

[new_trader]

@cantagril There are a lot of people who take those precautions, then sit at the computer having a coffee and a cigarette while tweeting about a #covidiot they saw.

 

[cantagril]

It's not urgent. I have been saying for years that I am being forced to pay for people who refuse to follow the advice of health professionals. I exercise, I don't smoke, I hardly ever drink alcohol and I also have private health insurance.

I would gladly opt out of NHS as long as the Government no longer has a right to tell me how to live my life, and I no longer pay any extra tax on things designed to reduce consumption of unhealthy foods, like the completely immoral sugar tax.

Purely out of interest, as you obviously keep fit and treat your body as a temple then the various taxes on alcohol and tobacco don't apply to you. Do you consider those taxes to be any different to the sugar one, and if so, why?

From my own point of view, I have absolutely no problem with people killing themselves be it through drug overdoses, sugar induced diabetes, smoker's lung cancer etc etc and imo taxing the guilty products makes sense. I would happily legalise all presently illegal drugs provided their manufacture and distribution was controlled and regulated....perhaps that might help the economy a bit instead of assisting those fine gentlemen in South America.

 

[cantagril]

@cantagril There are a lot of people who take those precautions, then sit at the computer having a coffee and a cigarette while tweeting about a #covidiot they saw.

I'm sure there are...and whilst I do admit to being a caffeine junky - Arabica though, never Robusta - I don't smoke whilst I rant.

And as for the #covidiot, I truly hope that the Herd Immunity is going to be as popular as Herd Stupidity continues to be. By my reckoning, about a third of people I see mixing with others in close proximity ( 72 imperial inches, or less!!) are not taking their safety seriously and appear to be regarding the transmissivity thing to be a hoax. If it is a hoax then I've fallen for it.

I learned a few days ago that a few streets away from chez Cant', a rather irritating and unremittingly sociable neighbour cashed in her Covid chips. Over the last couple of months, I never once saw her wearing a mask or changing her in-yer-face chatting style ....but I dare say she's now learned her lesson.

 

[postman]

Weeeell, it was nice knowing you NT😭
...
Needless to say, when I'm doing a run to the supermarket, I go in fully masked and gloved and do so when there are few people about. Once inside, I treat everyone as if they have Ebola, not CV19 and on my safe return home I burn all my clothes, spend a few minutes in the vapour degreasing chamber and follow that up with a 7 stage surface prep and cold phosphate regime. After that, I usually have a coffee.

Thats just your normal routine from what I hear, have you made any changes during the coronavirus outbreak?

 

[postman]

Both stories on the front page of the BBC website.

Coronavirus: Social restrictions 'to remain for rest of year'

Heads say 1 June earliest realistic school opening

So social distancing for the next 8 months but kids go back to school in 5 weeks. And of course when you tell children to socially isolate they always do what they are told dont they. Lunacy!

 

[cantagril]

"..... on my safe return home I burn all my clothes, spend a few minutes in the vapour degreasing chamber and follow that up with a 7 stage surface prep and cold phosphate regime. After that, I usually have a coffee."

Thats just your normal routine from what I hear, have you made any changes during the coronavirus outbreak?

Shame on you Postie! I think you underestimate just who you're dealing with here!

I'll have you know that I now put sweetener in my coffee...and if I'm feeling particularly drained by my sortie, I'll have a chocolate digestive as well. I know I'll probably go to hell for it but I always liked living on the edge.

 

[Signalcalc]

Fingers crossed that in the next few weeks the data confirms the expectation regarding herd immunity in Stockholm. Hopefully, on the back of it, our government will take notice and relax restrictions accordingly. This would be in direct contrast to the dire forecast made yesterday by Prof. Chris Witty about the need for current social distancing measures to be in place until at least the end of the year. Noooooo!

Generally, I sense that the MSM are very gradually waking up and beginning to ask a few searching questions re. government policy - primarily around the economy and the financial crisis that will result from the lock down measures. A mere hint of dissent within the media ranks; so, some glimmer of hope that the current madness could be about to roll over?
Tim.

UKGov will do its own thing and will not follow the continental example, namely they need the time to Xmas in order to introduce immunity passports to allow us into public spaces and claim social credits and the infrastructure needed to track us ie. facial recognition, biometrics, AI, mobile tracking.

I can see this will be on the back of immunity testing and vaccine.

You won't be able to go to the pub without the immunity passport, which will track all your movements and will alert the immunity police if you step into a red zone.

The matrix has arrived. Covid19 is a Global governments dream come true, the UK empire leading the way once again.

Happy St. George's Day.

 

[postman]

Governments around the world are full of idiots, there are no entry qualifications to be an MP.
If Labour had won the election and Jeremy Corbyn had gotten Coronovirus Dianne Abbot would be leading the country right now!
We need less government restrictions not more!

Less government more progress.

Job Retention Scheme IT actually worked first time

 

[barjon]

Well who could have guessed that outcome...

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible when the coronavirus hit. Now, it says its strategy appears to be working.

www.cnbc.com

Yes, I mentioned way back that it would be interesting to see how Sweden panned out. The country hasn’t been shut down, but there’s still a lot of the precautionary distancing, isolation etc going on which is relying on the good sense of citizens and not government edict.

Whilst I am just as far from believing that this is any kind of hoax and continue to applaud the government for their safe rather than sorry approach (although they are making a right pig’s ear of some things) I do think that things are getting overdone, probably because of the London-centric nature of decision making. Maybe influenced by the fact that there’s no way I’m staying locked up ‘til Christmas nor face a life without hugs, kisses and handshakes.

 

[Atilla]

On a slightly financial tone, bordering on genius is there some mileage in thinking this Covid-19 may have some unintended consequence and some say the actual intended objective in knocking US of A influence in the ME and the dollar standard with it?

Basically, oil dropping to virtually zero and possibly negative $ollars, effectively means less demand for the $.

If the ME don't earn $ selling oil, a big chunk of demand for US weapons of mass destruction goes out the window.

Lord Brown the other day said demand for oil is falling by about 1.5% every year despite GDP growth.

The word out on the street is that we have 2 months global supply of oil just loitering in tankers off the coast of California or some place. Moreover, demand for oil will not reach pre-levels for at least another 6 months or so.

This is where I struggle a little but if we have cheap energy that should be considered positive for economic growth and lower price and thus inflation. However, that is in fact really bad because governments have soooo much debt they desperately need inflation to shrink their national debt as a % of their nominal growing GDP. They certainly aren't going to pay it back by applying fiscal responsibility that's for sure. On the other hand if GDPs shrink then well debt can balloon as much as it wants as long as we have our national banks and printing presses.

All in all this I'm beginning to think Covid-19 is likely to have a much bigger impact; intended or unintended than one might have imagined.

 

[cantagril]

Meanwhile, across the ditch the French Mister of Economy is talking about reopening businesses (except hostility) on May 11th:

Le Monde - Toute l’actualité en continu

International, Economie, Environnement … La référence, partout, tout le temps.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[timsk]

. . . Maybe influenced by the fact that there’s no way I’m staying locked up ‘til Christmas nor face a life without hugs, kisses and handshakes.

You can get all those from me Jon, any time you like, covid or no covid!
Suffice to say, I don't think cant's approach is the right one for the country and, even if it were, it's certainly not right for me, seeing as my glass is half empty, I'd get the virus anyway. So, I'll continue with my usual policy viz a viz supermarkets. Namely, full shower after going to lidl and a hand wash only after going to Tesco. Waitrose is different matter entirely. Upon exiting their stores, I touch as many trolley handles as possible and then lick my hands repeatedly like a dog licking a bone.

Re. Sweden, I think they've got it about right. Yes, they've slipped up on care homes (as have we) - which are typically very large. But, take them out of the equation and Sweden's stats look pretty good. As I see it, we can't wait for a vaccine or drugs to treat those infected - the economy will be dead. So, ultimately, herd immunity is the only viable approach - so long as the health system isn't overwhelmed. PPE aside, the NHS is clearly coping pretty well, so I say let's lift restrictions, get the kids back to school and fit and healthy adults without any comorbid conditions back to work asap. And open the builders and timber merchants now (said the man desperate for some sand, cement and wood)!
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

From a fwiend
On the nail it is too.

Why WTI Crude Oil traded at minus -$37

Imagine the following...you pay $500 today and commit to receiving an escort at your house in 15 days. Cos your wife is traveling. This is called a futures contract.

Unfortunately, lockdown came and your wife will be home for the next 60 days.

You do not want this woman to show up at your house at all and try to pass this futures contract to someone else.

Only you cannot sell this commitment because nobody can receive the escort at home anymore. Everyone is in full storage with the wife.

To make matters worse, not even the pimp (Chicago Mercantile exchange) has more room to receive girls because his house is crowded with girls.

So you will pay anyone just to take the girl off your hands.

Do you now understand why oil has a negative price when the contract is delivered?