Apple.. a rising firework?

[simonmaelzer]

The World is loving Apple products and for good reason, they do pretty neat things. Wall street is also loving Apple, but is this thing starting to look like a bubble? Be very wary of trying to stop a firework in full flight, but be equally wary of strapping more money to that firework when it is fairly high up!

for the chart:

simon-maelzer.com -   ?                     Current Market Analysis

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Apple has peaked as a company. It's down from here.

I prefer their competitors product's anyways. In fact, I've never bought anything from Apple other than some downloadable songs.

 

[Pferd]

It is really difficult to say, I am not a big Apple fan myself, in fact I really don't like their products in despite of being now in my 3rd iPhone.

But we have to recognize they seem to find out very quickly what the market wants and that gives them an edge.

Their next bet will be selling the Apple TV. If it is successful as the iPhone or the iPad I see the share price getting to 1000 US$ in the next 24 months.

If for whatever reason they fail, yes, there is only one way now for them and it is down.

Let´s see. But for the inmediate future the outlook is positive. Share price should get to 600 US$ without too much trouble.

 

[Combo]

Needless to say, right now they are dominating and have an absurd amount of cash in bank. No clear signs that they are losing favour among consumers.

Hard to predict how long they can keep it up. Personally, I would rather stay away and play with more predictable companies which don't need a crystal ball to valuate.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Apple TV is gonna be massive. Anyone who is shorting apple in the midst of the ongoing apple mania is a lunatic. Buy.

Fo rteh record I don't like iPads and stuff. I phone isn't bad but I find the whoel smartphoen thing a bit meh if I'm honest

 

[ratmpower]

Just look at the last three month's chart and you will know. AAPL has broke all resistance level and risen higher. Its fundamentals look very strong. I do not think you can go wrong with AAPL

 

[Pferd]

Isn't a bit strange that the starter of this thread is member since 2004 and has only one post?

Furthermore he put a link on it. I have not clicked on it, so can not say what is on it. But just want to make other people aware of this. It is difficult for me to understand.

Maybe is just my imagination.....

 

[Kevaan]

My professor said that it would be risky to long on them, but even riskier to short on them. The stock itself is irrational, stay away from it.

Well that said, I am riding this gravy train.

 

[simonmaelzer]

One day doesn't change months and months of splendid up movement. But yesterday saw a bearish engulfing pattern on good volume. Price reaching an intraday high of $526 and then closing below $500. Maybe $500 will be Apple's big Psychological price level?

chart Untitled Album | Facebook

 

[scose-no-doubt]

My professor said that it would be risky to long on them, but even riskier to short on them. The stock itself is irrational, stay away from it.

Well that said, I am riding this gravy train.

What's he after? Risk free share trading? lol.

Next time you see him please ask him for a list of rational shares so that I can start trading them.

 

[Combo]

If forced to choose a long-term position I would short Apple.

This is because of its P/E ratio of 14.3. That's not particularly high, but it means it would take 14.3 years of earnings at the current level for Apple to repay you the price you paid for a share. That's a long time for a competitor to kill the iPhone and/or iPad and along with it app store revenue.

People are not tied in with Apple products like they have been with Microsoft products over the last couple of decades. It's mostly a matter of personal preference if someone wants to pick up a HTC or Galaxy instead of an iPhone or iPad; the same can't be said of MS Windows or MS Office (although Ubuntu and open-source have started to change that more recently).

So yes, I think 14 years is plenty of time for Apple to lose market share to competitors. They can't bully their competitors with patent infringement lawsuits forever. Today they sued Samsung for using a swiping button to unlock the phone -- that's pretty desperate and shows Apple's edge is constantly being challenged. If they lose half the market share to a competitor's product -- totally feasible given the pace of its competitors -- it could half its earnings and double its P/E ratio. That would make the company look very expensive very quickly.

 

[data_editors]

My professor said that it would be risky to long on them, but even riskier to short on them. The stock itself is irrational, stay away from it.

Well that said, I am riding this gravy train.

Hi Kevaan, "Gravy train" is right. Right now Apple has a lot of things going in its favor fundamentally, such as the following. A cash pile of $100 billion. Huge burgeoning demand for its products in China - in fact the latest Mac OS, released to developers yesterday, has specific features for Chinese users! The Apple stores have been a hugely successful retail foray in driving demand for the company's products - Apple is now expanding its retail thrust by implementing the 'store-within-a-store' concept at top retailers. Global litigation with Samsung seems slowly but surely turning out in favor of Apple. The iCloud offering and its use seamlessly with all of a consumer's Apple devices could be a game-changer in Apple's delivery of content. The company's stupendous Q4 results pulled the plug on any uncertainty regarding the company's future after the demise of Steve Jobs. The launches of iPad3, iPhone5 and the fabled AppleTV during 2012 could take the stock into the stratosphere from even these, all time high levels. Even with these blockbuster products, the company is not sitting on its haunches - instead its cost control is getting even better if some ratios recently discussed on the net are to believed [more on this in a separate post]. As if all this were not enough, its Mac computers have started selling much better compared to rivals who recently reported flat to muted PC sales. Further, corporate America is waiting with open arms to use Apple's products - the iPad and iPhone have already made the initial inroads - if Apple makes a determined push [and it may, judging from recent recruitment ads on the site] into corporate territory, it may repeat its consumer success.
Last but not least, the controversy over the working conditions at its Chinese plants has been handled by Apple well - a full scale audit by the FLA started at Foxconn City on 14 Feb.

I think more is in store for the stock, to put it mildly!

 

[YouAreNotFree]

iBubble: Apple's Market Cap Is Now The Same As The Entire Retail Sector, Bigger Than All The Semis | ZeroHedge

 

[scose-no-doubt]

If forced to choose a long-term position I would short Apple.

This is because of its P/E ratio of 14.3. That's not particularly high, but it means it would take 14.3 years of earnings at the current level for Apple to repay you the price you paid for a share. That's a long time for a competitor to kill the iPhone and/or iPad and along with it app store revenue.

People are not tied in with Apple products like they have been with Microsoft products over the last couple of decades. It's mostly a matter of personal preference if someone wants to pick up a HTC or Galaxy instead of an iPhone or iPad; the same can't be said of MS Windows or MS Office (although Ubuntu and open-source have started to change that more recently).

So yes, I think 14 years is plenty of time for Apple to lose market share to competitors. They can't bully their competitors with patent infringement lawsuits forever. Today they sued Samsung for using a swiping button to unlock the phone -- that's pretty desperate and shows Apple's edge is constantly being challenged. If they lose half the market share to a competitor's product -- totally feasible given the pace of its competitors -- it could half its earnings and double its P/E ratio. That would make the company look very expensive very quickly.

and...

if the share price continues to rise with inflation/dollar debasement/market you'll still lose your shirt with an outright short.

Now if you're talking some kind of long-short over the longer term that's a different story

 

[hwsteele]

Sorry for the interruption but I thought I would give my 2cents worth just for kicks.

Looking at a daily chart of AAPL it does to me look like a bit of a bubble.
I don't follow apple so I took just a couple of minutes to look over the charts and it seems to me that this fast move up will come to an end around March 14th or 15th at a price of right around $567.00.
If I have things measured right then the bottom (of sorts) should be around May 4th-7th. The two price targets that show up in the calculations are $518.00 but also a more realistic $383.50.

This was just a quick look at the charts with some fast math so as always only time will tell.

 

[wackypete2]

People have been saying apple has peaked for 15 years.

Peter

 

[amit1986]

I remembered reading another thread on T2W where the OP said he was long put options on AAPL stock and he was wondering whether or not he should "start panicking".

Why try to play around with something you have no control over? Sure, you may end up winning and do very well for yourself, but as I see it, you'll simply be reinforcing bad trading behavior. Have a trading plan and trade it.

 

[VielGeld]

Apple's going to keep rising as far as the eye can see until things fundamentally change for the company.

So far these changes have yet to materialize, and if anything they've become stronger in Apple's favour. I would not be short Apple anytime soon for the simple reason it is too strongly entrenched at the top.

If looking to short, why not go for a fundamentally weak business out there? That would do much more good than trying to "take down the juggernaut" so to speak.

 

[advfntrader]

but why has the price behaved differently now from ANY time in AAPLs history. we are 37% up year to date...in 7 weeks. its too far too fast. its never behaved like this before.

should we just throw TA, average true range, Pivots, fibs out of the window and BUY BUY BUY ????

 

[Pferd]

but why has the price behaved differently now from ANY time in AAPLs history. we are 37% up year to date...in 7 weeks. its too far too fast. its never behaved like this before.

should we just throw TA, average true range, Pivots, fibs out of the window and BUY BUY BUY ????

I think it is just reflecting expectations. If the Apple TV rumours are true and this product is really coming to the market, it is going to be the most revolutionary product in consumer electronics since the introduction of the smartphones. Being alone in the market and managing a lot of content through iTunes this could be really explosive. If the market likes it there will be no limit for the price share. And we know by experience that at the moment the market loves every piece of garbage the sell. I think that's all it is.