Apple.. a rising firework?

[YouAreNotFree]

Another new product release and another bunch of wanna-be trendies camping outside Apple stores.

The mind boggles.

It's possible the worm has turned given that Apple are playing catch-up with the mini release.

 

[Benj1981]

i think Apple's gonna play catch up with apples that have fallen off trees, and are mouldy on the ground.

 

[Vicorka]

It becomes more volatile. The bad thing for AAPL that we still do not see any panic on it, We see some increase in trading volume, but it is not panic yet. That could mean there are still more room for a slide

 

[malaguti]

It becomes more volatile. The bad thing for AAPL that we still do not see any panic on it, We see some increase in trading volume, but it is not panic yet. That could mean there are still more room for a slide

or its just retracing

 

[Vicorka]

or its just retracing

Do you still think it is retracing??? Actually, technically, every correction, decline, crash could be called "just retracing".

 

[Trader6868]

Do you still think it is retracing??? Actually, technically, every correction, decline, crash could be called "just retracing".

I am still keeping my short sell position of AAPL until now. Target 500

 

[Vicorka]

I am still keeping my short sell position of AAPL until now. Target 500

I'm not setting target. I'm waiting for a change in then money flow. Plus, it is low enough to set trailing stop.

 

[malaguti]

Apple will go up Monday/Tuesday latest. I'd be closing any shorts around 520 if it gets there

 

[sambazone]

It can go lower.. it doubled in price within a year.. can easily retrace to 450 especially with higher taxes next year many want lock in profit this year.

Also aapl is on the books of most large hedge funds.. imagine if those start getting out?

 

[Trader6868]

It can go lower.. it doubled in price within a year.. can easily retrace to 450 especially with higher taxes next year many want lock in profit this year.

Also aapl is on the books of most large hedge funds.. imagine if those start getting out?

I believe that DJ will continue it dropping until 12,250-12,500, while SP500 is equivalent to 1,300-1,320. So, if there is no surprisingly huge volume within 1-2 weeks, the market index will be going down at those targets

But it will have a fairy retracement after testing support at 500? Then will plunge to 460 in medium term?

Trader6868

 

[Vicorka]

If it goes to 500 it will be 22 points below May's support. Volume is increasing and it get to the level we saw during the decline in April which suggests that we starting to see some panic among Apple fans and "believers". I would say we may see some move up before 500 (around May's support). The next support line is around 360. Yet, if 500 is broken, it may go down for as long as market declines. After that, I would watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

 

[malaguti]

If it goes to 500 it will be 22 points below May's support. Volume is increasing and it get to the level we saw during the decline in April which suggests that we starting to see some panic among Apple fans and "believers". I would say we may see some move up before 500 (around May's support). The next support line is around 360. Yet, if 500 is broken, it may go down for as long as market declines. After that, I would watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

hence why im saying I would watch any shorts as its going up..very simply

 

[pennystockrumors]

i hate apple, the stock and the products.

but you can almost guarantee aapl will see 600 in its lifetime again, and that is something you can trade upon.

 

[Vasco da Banana]

i hate apple, the stock and the products.

but you can almost guarantee aapl will see 600 in its lifetime again, and that is something you can trade upon.

If Apple stuff stops being trendy, as seems to be happening, it could fall a lot further.

 

[malaguti]

hence why im saying I would watch any shorts as its going up..very simply

im a genius

 

[London Minnow]

We can look all day at the potential overvalue that a brand as big as apple could have, but they still simply have the best and most innovative products on the market. Apple is not trendy the same way it used to be--it's just plain functional, though. Albeit sales will not be the same as they were over the last 6 years, they will still be incredible, and Apple will retain the same fundamentals that put it over 600.

I'm looking at the potential for windows mobile os to eat away at android, and I think it will, even though its an utterly pathetic product. I think in this world (especially tablets), it's iOS vs. everything else, and that's why Apple will easily reach 600, and most likely sometime soon.

 

[London Minnow]

Because the OS game right now is Apple vs. everything else, tech will have greater correlation and move up if we see some decent Q4 retail sales.

For this reason, I think to short apple right now would be like holding REW at this moment... In my book, that's a bad bet.

 

[malaguti]

Because the OS game right now is Apple vs. everything else, tech will have greater correlation and move up if we see some decent Q4 retail sales.

For this reason, I think to short apple right now would be like holding REW at this moment... In my book, that's a bad bet.

Its about calling reversals, calling when things could potentially get messy. Everyone was shorting I said get out. Preservation of your trades. You talk about OS, like thats moving the markets right now.

 

[London Minnow]

Its about calling reversals, calling when things could potentially get messy. Everyone was shorting I said get out. Preservation of your trades. You talk about OS, like thats moving the markets right now.

It's no that OS is moving the markets--its limiting them. Apple is just simple a mid-term play at the moment. Unless there is some great technical analysis to suggest otherwise, it's really going to be for better or for worse, a steadier climb than most of us would prefer. I'd be looking on a 2 month play on this one.

As far as reversals go, I think its already happened. The short squeeze was gentle and its on its way back. Good retail numbers (they're coming) will make Apple pop.

 

[Pferd]

Today was a really bad day for Apple but let's try to put this into perspective:

Whether we like it or not, the company has a lot of cash in hand. So even if they close down tomorrow, just the cash they have in the bank will make the company very valuable.

Having said that, I can only think of one reason for the recent sharp deterioration in share price: Apple is probably the stock the people holds the longest these days. They were leading the way directly after the financial crisis and with the success of their products the share got to 700,- US$. Even at 500 US$, many people are making a killing on this share, we are speaking here about 100% plus profit in a relatively short period of time. With the fiscal cliff coming and the uncertainty about future tax rises, the people is taking the profits now to avoid a nasty tax surprise on January 1st.

When/if there is a resolution about the new taxes (if any) the stock price should stabilize and provides us with an opportunity to enter long. But in the meantime the deterioration of the price will continue. Today was the first sign of panic selling, although it has already several weeks giving us indications of weakness.

We should keep our eyes wide open, if the rest of the market does not join in the panic selling, very likely the above theory is correct and we can make few pennies on the next leg up/dead cat bounce.

Not a big fan of Apple as I have said in previous posts, but we should not understimate how strong they are in the market place, whether we like it or not.