Apple.. a rising firework?

[kitbag1984]

Walking past one of he apple shops on launch day showed how desirable these products are.

My office is nearby and I get to see the launches and the line was the bigggest I have ever seen. Would guess around double the size.

At around 9 o'clock an apple chap had to tell those at the end of the line that they had sold out and had no more sim free phones left. These are £500 devices. I am told the profit margins high on them as we'll.

In my humble opinion the release of their iPad mini will do wonders and I believe that the market will react favourably to it. It would be a direct competitior to the kindle and with arguably better content and a well established Eco-system. Of course pricing will be key and whilst people are happy to pay a premium they won't want to get ripped off.

I think that today's dip is a good buying opportunity.

This is all without mention of the Apple TV whichhas been spoke of a lot recently.

 

[Katanatrader]

There is still plenty of room to the upside for AAPL. I wouldn't worry about it crashing at this point, I wouldnt worry about it crashing....period, there is no reason for it to. I think AAPL will be at 750-800 in 18 months. Another record broken when the iPhone 5 came out, a new iPad will come out early next year and a hundred plus billion dollars in the bank. AAPL's gonna report another killer earnings next quarter. AAPL just might be a trillion dollar company, who knows. I m still long AAPL Been in it since 2006 so Im pretty happy so far.

 

[james1989]

Not much stopping it right now.

Fantastic fundamentals, but unsustainable based purely on the growth rates and the sheer size of it.

 

[Vicorka]

There is still plenty of room to the upside for AAPL. I wouldn't worry about it crashing at this point, I wouldnt worry about it crashing....period, there is no reason for it to. I think AAPL will be at 750-800 in 18 months. Another record broken when the iPhone 5 came out, a new iPad will come out early next year and a hundred plus billion dollars in the bank. AAPL's gonna report another killer earnings next quarter. AAPL just might be a trillion dollar company, who knows. I m still long AAPL Been in it since 2006 so Im pretty happy so far.

You are Apple's fan. Your forecast is based on feelings. AAPL has to make 15% in the next three years to meet your expectation (hit level 750). It's 5% per year. Good luck.

 

[bearsworth]

You are Apple's fan. Your forecast is based on feelings. AAPL has to make 15% in the next three years to meet your expectation (hit level 750). It's 5% per year. Good luck.

While his valuation is based on his cult following, sometimes the cult just might be the thing to follow. Consider his gains by now

 

[Vicorka]

Profit is only profit when you close your position. I have nothing against the AAPL. It is good and stable company. I'm just not the guy who will sit on stock for a couple of years and I personally do not expect a strong run form AAPL in the near future.

 

[bearsworth]

Profit is only profit when you close your position. I have nothing against the AAPL. It is good and stable company. I'm just not the guy who will sit on stock for a couple of years and I personally do not expect a strong run form AAPL in the near future.

Fair enough. But rest assured it will rise to $700 yet again! I feel as if the value of this stock is effected by the bull correction going on.

 

[Vicorka]

That is fine. As long as there no crash (like in 2008), most likely, it is will be there again. Again, AAPL is a good company, even during the crash in 2008 it was only 60% down and, after that it recovered back just in three months.

 

[bearsworth]

That is fine. As long as there no crash (like in 2008), most likely, it is will be there again. Again, AAPL is a good company, even during the crash in 2008 it was only 60% down and, after that it recovered back just in three months.

Yes! Based on Weinstein's market predictors, we are still in the bull phase of things. If things change I'd hate to lose 60% and will likely let go of the fanboyness.

 

[hwsteele]

If the market tanks AAPL will too.
Simple supply and demand really...
When every one who can buy the product has, the demand dries up.
That problem is remedied by coming out with a new product.
The only problem is IF/WHEN the economy shrinks the next product release will not be able to out sell the last and the stock will stop going up as sales figures shrink.
The big money that has been selling AAPL as of late will empty the rest of their coffers of the stock and then it will be ready for the "crash" faze just like January '09. The retail suckers will be more than happy to soak the last half of the big boys shares right up thinking it is a strong company. The only problem is people who buy at the top are the ones who sell it right back to the big boys at the bottom.

Nothing new with this story just a different company that's all.

If you have had this stock for a while then I would think about selling.
I would NOT buy it at the moment. When AAPL corrects again I would not look at buying til at least the 360 price level which is the base of where the price took off like a rocket in December of last year.

AAPL killed RIMM with a more interesting product. One that was cool and easier to use. The question is who will kill AAPL? Some one will. It always happens. It might reinvent its self and make a massive comeback again but it will, at least, go down for the count.

It may see 700 or 720 again in short order but after that...it could get interesting.

This is, of course, if the market tanks.
If not then they will keep making the "i-whatevers" just like the US keeps printing the green stuff:cheesy:

and people will buy it

 

[Vicorka]

The big money that has been selling AAPL as of late will empty the rest of their coffers of the stock and then it will be ready for the "crash" ... If you have had this stock for a while then I would think about selling.
I would NOT buy it at the moment. When AAPL corrects again I would not look at buying til at least the 360 price level ...

Agree. A stock that is traded a the top is not interesting for trading...

The only bad thing with Apple at this moment is that good part of it sales is based on customers who is renewing the old model. You do not buy a car every year... You do not buy TV every year... Yet, the Apple fans are dropping old iPhone/iPad model and are buying a new one every year. Sooner or later there will be a moment when consumer sentiment will go down and those who had iPhone will not renew it. Then what...

 

[bearsworth]

There is some truth in this in concerns to laptops and ipods. I'm not too sure about the phones cause I know my contract I get an upgrade each year and it comes at a much discounted price at the expense of my provider. Buying would be interesting at this moment and I'd wait for the stock to decrease a bit more to under $620.

Agree. A stock that is traded a the top is not interesting for trading...

The only bad thing with Apple at this moment is that good part of it sales is based on customers who is renewing the old model. You do not buy a car every year... You do not buy TV every year... Yet, the Apple fans are dropping old iPhone/iPad model and are buying a new one every year. Sooner or later there will be a moment when consumer sentiment will go down and those who had iPhone will not renew it. Then what...

 

[isatrader]

I think if you take away all the opinion that everyone seems to have on this stock and just look at the chart data then I think it gives a clearer picture of what's going on.

Price is currently testing a major horizontal support level from it's March high and the short term trendline from the May lows.

Relative performance versus the S&P 500 is declining and has been since the March high, but it is still in positive territory currently.

The Volume data is interesting. Large players (Institutional) have come into the stock strongly since the beginning of the year and own more than double what they did at the March highs. Whereas the Small players (retail) now own less stock than they did in March. You can see the combined large and small players volume at the bottom of the chart, which shows that the recent pullback in price hasn't been as severe in the cumulative volume.

From a stage analysis point of view, it's late in a Stage 2 uptrend and could easily break down into a Stage 3 consolidation phase and start closing below it's 30 week MA if the support levels fail. But it's not there yet, and could just as easily bounce at this key support and continue onwards. So I'd personally rate it a hold still for long term investors, and it has the possibility of a short term swing trade if it can hold this current support. But if it starts breaking down and closing below the support levels then it could easily take the market with it imo.

 

[Vicorka]

 

[YouAreNotFree]

They sure have taken a bite out of the Apple share price recently.

 

[SavantK]

http://www.mebanefaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/chart9.jpg

According to the graphicon Apple is the most expensive company, but the P/E ratio is not as high as the P/E of Microsoft in 2000.

 

[Vicorka]

http://www.mebanefaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/chart9.jpg

According to the graphicon Apple is the most expensive company, but the P/E ratio is not as high as the P/E of Microsoft in 2000.

You may relay on p/e ratio and other fundamental stuff, yet, when speculators come, they can pump and they can crash. For an example you may check yesterday's GOOG trading. You cannot spot actions of speculators by relaying on fundamentals only. The stock market is not as it was 10 years ago.

 

[Eddie Z]

Apple has peaked as a company. It's down from here.

I prefer their competitors product's anyways. In fact, I've never bought anything from Apple other than some downloadable songs.

I totally agree with you. Everybody knows about it and owns it. The bubble is bursting!!!

 

[Vicorka]

It is going down and there is no panic yet. Which mean there is still room for further drop.

 

[Vicorka]

I know tat everybody who still hold AAPL keep hoping that tomorrow's earning's release will push the AAPL up. The bad thing is that the market does not react positively on positive reports. Today market ignored quite positive single family home report (best over 2 and 1/2 years).