Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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Da.DesiTrader
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hey folks, my paper trade is in with about 72 pips profit. Target is in the range of 400 to 600 pips. Move the s/l to b/e after 100 pips. I am going to do some more analysis and post the calls. Note, I am just paper trading my multiple signal confluence system (if I can call that).
Cheers.
Cheers.
Da.DesiTrader
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Ok here it is.
Short AUD/CAD at 0.9439 s/l at 0.9600 tp around .9000
and Long cable at 1.5987 s/l at 1.5733
and Short EUR/GBP at 0.9150 s/l 0.9300
As I write/edit this, Cable trade is already in positive.
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wallstreet1928
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5 REASONS WHY THE DOLLAR COULD FALL
It has been another active day in the foreign exchange market with more rollercoaster like price action in the U.S. dollar. Considering that it is the month and quarter end, we are not entirely surprised by the sharp swings that are typical of this time of the year. The dollar ended the U.S. session lower against all of the major currencies and even fell to a fresh 13 month low against the Australian dollar. Over the past few days, we have been talking about how quarter end repatriation by U.S. corporations to recognize profits and window dress balance sheets helped create demand for U.S. dollars. Now that the quarter has come to an end, the dollar is falling once again.
There are many reasons why we believe that the dollar will continue to fall but they center around 5 key factors.
1. Don’t Expect a Fed Exit Anytime Soon – Based upon 3 month LIBOR rates, the U.S. dollar is the lowest yielding G10 currency. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they are in no rush to exit from their unconventional monetary policy and will therefore leave the dollar as a cheap funding currency. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said this morning that it will be some time before a comprehensive exit is needed while Kohn said that low inflation and slack demand will allow the Fed to keep interest rates around zero for an extended period of time. There is a good chance that the Federal Reserve could be one of the slowest central banks to tighten monetary policy because of the extreme slack in the U.S. economy. Last week, we talked about how the difference between the current unemployment rate in the U.S. and that of its 17 year average is the highest amongst the G10 nations. The countries with the least slack should be the first to hike rates while the ones with the most could be the last.
2. Reserve Diversification – According to the latest IMF report, foreign exchange reserves around the world rose 4.8 percent to $6.8 trillion. The dollar’s share of global reserves however has fallen from 65 to 62.8 percent as central banks around the world boosted their holdings of euros, yen and sterling. This report follows Russia’s announcement yesterday that they plan on adding Canadian and Australian dollars to their reserves. Reserve diversification threats slowed during the global financial crisis but if the recovery continues the talk will return. If there is one lesson that investors around the world should have learned from the crisis, is the need for diversification.
3. Strong Q3 Earnings – The weakness of the U.S. dollar should be very positive for third quarter earnings which could help to drive stocks to new highs. Not only does a weak dollar help U.S. exporters but it also increases the foreign earnings of U.S. multinational corporations. Since the EUR/USD has had a more than 85 percent positive correlation with the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year, a rise in the stock market should translate into gains in the euro and weakness in the U.S. dollar.
4. Twin Deficits – Don’t forget the trade and budget deficits that have plagued the dollar for years. The U.S. government has spent a lot of money propping up the economy and this will only burden the budget deficit. At the same time, a recovery in the U.S. economy could boost imports which could increase the trade deficit.
5. Price Patterns – Finally, price patterns also suggest that the dollar should continue to fall. At the beginning of September we talked about how the price action of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY this month could set the tone for the rest of the year. At that time, we showed two tables illustrating how in 7 out of the last 10 years, the EUR/USD moved in the same direction between October and December as it did in September. For USD/JPY, the odds were even higher with the currency seeing follow through 8 out of the past 10 years. Therefore based upon past price patterns, we have more reasons to believe that the dollar will fall against the euro and Japanese Yen over the next 3 months.
It has been another active day in the foreign exchange market with more rollercoaster like price action in the U.S. dollar. Considering that it is the month and quarter end, we are not entirely surprised by the sharp swings that are typical of this time of the year. The dollar ended the U.S. session lower against all of the major currencies and even fell to a fresh 13 month low against the Australian dollar. Over the past few days, we have been talking about how quarter end repatriation by U.S. corporations to recognize profits and window dress balance sheets helped create demand for U.S. dollars. Now that the quarter has come to an end, the dollar is falling once again.
There are many reasons why we believe that the dollar will continue to fall but they center around 5 key factors.
1. Don’t Expect a Fed Exit Anytime Soon – Based upon 3 month LIBOR rates, the U.S. dollar is the lowest yielding G10 currency. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they are in no rush to exit from their unconventional monetary policy and will therefore leave the dollar as a cheap funding currency. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said this morning that it will be some time before a comprehensive exit is needed while Kohn said that low inflation and slack demand will allow the Fed to keep interest rates around zero for an extended period of time. There is a good chance that the Federal Reserve could be one of the slowest central banks to tighten monetary policy because of the extreme slack in the U.S. economy. Last week, we talked about how the difference between the current unemployment rate in the U.S. and that of its 17 year average is the highest amongst the G10 nations. The countries with the least slack should be the first to hike rates while the ones with the most could be the last.
2. Reserve Diversification – According to the latest IMF report, foreign exchange reserves around the world rose 4.8 percent to $6.8 trillion. The dollar’s share of global reserves however has fallen from 65 to 62.8 percent as central banks around the world boosted their holdings of euros, yen and sterling. This report follows Russia’s announcement yesterday that they plan on adding Canadian and Australian dollars to their reserves. Reserve diversification threats slowed during the global financial crisis but if the recovery continues the talk will return. If there is one lesson that investors around the world should have learned from the crisis, is the need for diversification.
3. Strong Q3 Earnings – The weakness of the U.S. dollar should be very positive for third quarter earnings which could help to drive stocks to new highs. Not only does a weak dollar help U.S. exporters but it also increases the foreign earnings of U.S. multinational corporations. Since the EUR/USD has had a more than 85 percent positive correlation with the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year, a rise in the stock market should translate into gains in the euro and weakness in the U.S. dollar.
4. Twin Deficits – Don’t forget the trade and budget deficits that have plagued the dollar for years. The U.S. government has spent a lot of money propping up the economy and this will only burden the budget deficit. At the same time, a recovery in the U.S. economy could boost imports which could increase the trade deficit.
5. Price Patterns – Finally, price patterns also suggest that the dollar should continue to fall. At the beginning of September we talked about how the price action of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY this month could set the tone for the rest of the year. At that time, we showed two tables illustrating how in 7 out of the last 10 years, the EUR/USD moved in the same direction between October and December as it did in September. For USD/JPY, the odds were even higher with the currency seeing follow through 8 out of the past 10 years. Therefore based upon past price patterns, we have more reasons to believe that the dollar will fall against the euro and Japanese Yen over the next 3 months.
wallstreet1928
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Dentalfloss
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hi chelski
which way will they break..??
which way will they break..??
Dentalfloss
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nas 100 daily data
descending traingle
descending traingle
Dentalfloss
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s500.daily data
symetrical traingle
symetrical traingle
wallstreet1928
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good morning
Nikkei broke key 10,000 level .........
asian markets are getting pounded and that will have negative impact here
Nikkei broke key 10,000 level .........
asian markets are getting pounded and that will have negative impact here
wallstreet1928
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Comments from European Union’s Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia, that the Euro group will discuss euro’s appreciation at the upcoming G-7 meeting this Saturday in Istanbul, sent the single currency tumbling for more than 50 points in a matter of minutes at the start of European FX trade.
The latest statement from Mr. Almunia following on the heels of similar sentiment expressed by French President Nicholas Sarkozy at the G-20 summit earlier this month indicates that European fiscal authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the relentless rise of the euro against the dollar. The currency has appreciated more than 16% since reaching a low of 1.2455 against the greenback in early March.
Despite euro’s sharp rise, prospects for recovery in the Eurozone in H2 of 2009 may actually be stronger than those of the United States. Yesterday’s surprisingly robust German unemployment numbers which declined by -12K versus market expectations of a 20K rise were the third consecutive monthly decline in joblessness indicating that labor market conditions in EZ largest economy have stabilized. Contrast that with disappointing US unemployment data as ADP report forecast another -250K in job losses for the month of September.
With oil price rebounding above $60/bbl and demand from China continuing to escalate, European exporters have been able to overcome the barriers of high exchange rates to supply Middle East and Asia with capital goods for those region’s massive infrastructure build outs. On the other hand, US manufacturers have had only limited success in pressing their weak currency advantage on the global stage. If yesterday’s surprisingly weak Chicago PMI data foreshadows today’s ISM Manufacturing report the divergence between EZ and US economic condition will become even more pronounced.
Nevertheless, despite the relative economic strength of the region, EZ officials are worried about the ascent of the euro, and today’s not so subtle warning from Mr. Almunia suggests that officials have decided to preempt any attempts at a runaway market. The EZ authorities are clearly concerned that a move past the psychologically important 1.50 mark could trigger a wholesale liquidation of long dollar positions and open the way for a test of all time highs of 1.6036 set in July of last year. Therefore today’s comments may be the start of a verbal intervention campaign to slow down the units rise, especially in light of possibly another weak US NFP number on Friday which would put further downward pressure on US rates and make the dollar even more vulnerable to carry trade flows.
We doubt that G-7 officials will actually offer any specific communiqué on exchange rate movements, given the group’s preference not interfere with market activity. However, Mr. Almunia’s attempts at jawboning maybe the preview of things to come if EUR/USD continues its one way trip north and the rhetoric will likely become much more aggressive if the pace of appreciation quickens.
The latest statement from Mr. Almunia following on the heels of similar sentiment expressed by French President Nicholas Sarkozy at the G-20 summit earlier this month indicates that European fiscal authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the relentless rise of the euro against the dollar. The currency has appreciated more than 16% since reaching a low of 1.2455 against the greenback in early March.
Despite euro’s sharp rise, prospects for recovery in the Eurozone in H2 of 2009 may actually be stronger than those of the United States. Yesterday’s surprisingly robust German unemployment numbers which declined by -12K versus market expectations of a 20K rise were the third consecutive monthly decline in joblessness indicating that labor market conditions in EZ largest economy have stabilized. Contrast that with disappointing US unemployment data as ADP report forecast another -250K in job losses for the month of September.
With oil price rebounding above $60/bbl and demand from China continuing to escalate, European exporters have been able to overcome the barriers of high exchange rates to supply Middle East and Asia with capital goods for those region’s massive infrastructure build outs. On the other hand, US manufacturers have had only limited success in pressing their weak currency advantage on the global stage. If yesterday’s surprisingly weak Chicago PMI data foreshadows today’s ISM Manufacturing report the divergence between EZ and US economic condition will become even more pronounced.
Nevertheless, despite the relative economic strength of the region, EZ officials are worried about the ascent of the euro, and today’s not so subtle warning from Mr. Almunia suggests that officials have decided to preempt any attempts at a runaway market. The EZ authorities are clearly concerned that a move past the psychologically important 1.50 mark could trigger a wholesale liquidation of long dollar positions and open the way for a test of all time highs of 1.6036 set in July of last year. Therefore today’s comments may be the start of a verbal intervention campaign to slow down the units rise, especially in light of possibly another weak US NFP number on Friday which would put further downward pressure on US rates and make the dollar even more vulnerable to carry trade flows.
We doubt that G-7 officials will actually offer any specific communiqué on exchange rate movements, given the group’s preference not interfere with market activity. However, Mr. Almunia’s attempts at jawboning maybe the preview of things to come if EUR/USD continues its one way trip north and the rhetoric will likely become much more aggressive if the pace of appreciation quickens.
Dentalfloss
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there is a short bias on the ftse
uneless it breaks above 5180
uneless it breaks above 5180
wallstreet1928
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I agree Dentist
I am surprised with Nikkei hasn't sent alarm bells ringing after breaking the key 10,000 barrier
I am surprised with Nikkei hasn't sent alarm bells ringing after breaking the key 10,000 barrier
Chelski
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i think will will go lower to test the trend line. 15M has divergence on MACD from yesterdays high to todays first swing high.
wallstreet1928
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Dentalfloss
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ws.nas 100
1738 activates an upward target of 1800
1690 activates a lower target of 1600
5 min data.3.13 box size b 3 reversal
1738 activates an upward target of 1800
1690 activates a lower target of 1600
5 min data.3.13 box size b 3 reversal
Dentalfloss
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a perfect symetrical triangle on the 1 min close s500 chart
WHICH WAY WILL IT BREAK...???
bracket orders
WHICH WAY WILL IT BREAK...???
bracket orders
wallstreet1928
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suprise, surprise...........
Down she goes
Down she goes
SabreTT
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Your estimating 1004 on the sp500 today? :O
I look at asia most mornings to see where the ftse might open and I dont see anything alarming today especially. Mainland china is up, australia is slightly down and yea Japan is negative but then I dont hold anything there.
They look to be joining china is breaking the july rally but china has been in that for a month and it made no waves though I thought it might
I look at asia most mornings to see where the ftse might open and I dont see anything alarming today especially. Mainland china is up, australia is slightly down and yea Japan is negative but then I dont hold anything there.
They look to be joining china is breaking the july rally but china has been in that for a month and it made no waves though I thought it might
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