Working towards the dream

[Solas0077]

I was under the impression that simple trend-following systems (on various timeframes) are one of the ways that retail traders can get an edge.

So I am also interested to hear the reason for the suggestion to avoid trend-following strategies.

Waiting anxiously....

Simple trend following algo performance is usually due to selection bias and hindsight. High rate of failure of trend-followers especially in intraday trading is proof. Some brokers have issued reports. I cannot find the link now but survival rate is less than 20%. Some info about professional trend-followers is provided in this article.

 

[tomorton]

Simple trend following algo performance is usually due to selection bias and hindsight. High rate of failure of trend-followers especially in intraday trading is proof. Some brokers have issued reports. I cannot find the link now but survival rate is less than 20%. Some info about professional trend-followers is provided in this article.

All forms of intra-day trading have high rates of failure. Michael Harris's articles on trend following do not relate to the experience of private UK retail traders, and like the rest of his output might be assumed to focus purely on intra-day trading - so much published information does not even include extra-day traders as traders but as investors.

 

[options-george]

Simple trend following algo performance is usually due to selection bias and hindsight. High rate of failure of trend-followers especially in intraday trading is proof. Some brokers have issued reports. I cannot find the link now but survival rate is less than 20%. Some info about professional trend-followers is provided in this article.

Many thanks for your comments Solas0077 - much appreciated.

I get a monthly update on the performance of some trend-following hedge funds - funds under management range from $30m to several billion dollars - none of them do too well - though I assume they are using daily timeframes or higher, rather than intraday. I will try to find the link and will post it here.

 

[Pat494]

Age is NO barrier to successful trading imho.
Stupidity and lack of motivation is.

 

[AKelly]

It is tough when family opinion is against you, but only you can decide what is right for you to do.
If you believe in yourself then don't let others stand in your way, or you will always wonder 'what if?'