That was my instant reaction too HOWEVER, entrepreneurs and people in all walks of life do this everyday.salltbtch said:
here are a few examples:
I give my bank £1000 on deposit. That money is at risk yet i accept 4% interest.
or
I am paid £100 per day to police Iraq, yet i put my whole life on the line for that tiny return.
Is 150 ticks risked to gain 25 really so daft - thats what bookies do everytime they offer us a price?
TheSpikeyCrow
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Oh, to have such a problem!
Bigfind,
If you are so concerned about being banned have you considered distributing your trades across more than one broker? Might require a little more time in familiarising yourself with two or more different trading platforms but this approach would offer you an alternative if you start experiencing problems with a specific broker.
As mentioned before, have a look under Trading Reviews on the T2W home page (brokers tab) to learn more about the various brokers' services and how T2W traders have rated their service.
With respect, can appreciate you are only trying to be forward-thinking but this is a concern I would only address once it became an actuality.
Best of luck with your trading,
Spikey.
bigfind said:
Bigfind,
If you are so concerned about being banned have you considered distributing your trades across more than one broker? Might require a little more time in familiarising yourself with two or more different trading platforms but this approach would offer you an alternative if you start experiencing problems with a specific broker.
As mentioned before, have a look under Trading Reviews on the T2W home page (brokers tab) to learn more about the various brokers' services and how T2W traders have rated their service.
With respect, can appreciate you are only trying to be forward-thinking but this is a concern I would only address once it became an actuality.
Best of luck with your trading,
Spikey.
Hi, couldn't resist reading this thread, I do not "do" forex so will not comment on the mechanics.
However, Chump gave some very clear insights into a sensible trading methodology which Lion challenged.
I personally, following much reading and now even after several years of trading treat my accounts exactly as Chump indicates all be it with different %.
Any position has several aspects in assessing risk.
Spread, stop and value, in indices and equities the latter is simply the cost of the position.
Add all that together and with a very tight stop and spread you could easily trade large stocks or indices and the same amount (£) on a small value stock with a large spread and a more distant SL.
It is all about calculating the risk. ALL traders I know asses their risk Keeping the risk a constant % of your current bank allows increasing or decreasing stake and hence risk per position.
If the system is 98% successful you will soon build a very handsome account and be able to take some cash out then REDUCE your risk to your new balance.
I look forward to seeing the actual returns on a live market not paper.
BTW, I would suggest you start with SB then if you are successful move to CFD's, there you certainly will not get banned as you deal directly with the market and pay the CFD co commission via the spread.!
Good luck
Dave
However, Chump gave some very clear insights into a sensible trading methodology which Lion challenged.
I personally, following much reading and now even after several years of trading treat my accounts exactly as Chump indicates all be it with different %.
Any position has several aspects in assessing risk.
Spread, stop and value, in indices and equities the latter is simply the cost of the position.
Add all that together and with a very tight stop and spread you could easily trade large stocks or indices and the same amount (£) on a small value stock with a large spread and a more distant SL.
It is all about calculating the risk. ALL traders I know asses their risk Keeping the risk a constant % of your current bank allows increasing or decreasing stake and hence risk per position.
If the system is 98% successful you will soon build a very handsome account and be able to take some cash out then REDUCE your risk to your new balance.
I look forward to seeing the actual returns on a live market not paper.
BTW, I would suggest you start with SB then if you are successful move to CFD's, there you certainly will not get banned as you deal directly with the market and pay the CFD co commission via the spread.!
Good luck
Dave
donaldduke
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Your £1000 isnt at risk, because the money is insured. You would lose your money ifbullcar said:
there was a complete finanicial meltdown. But then you would probably lose alot more too.
Book makers use overrounding to make money (ie have large spreads in their favour), if you had this advantage you might consider taking this kind bet too.
I've got three concerns over this 'system'..the 1st DD identified when he suggested checking the effect of spikes which occurs when SB's change their directional bias..
2nd is the period tested ..used on the recent past with the Dow it's been tested on a basically choppy trading style of market but in a trending market up or down I think the win/loss rate would change and because of skewness in the RR that could be hugely significant.
3rd would be the execution ...you' d need to be a robot ..start messing about with it and again the win loss ration could be changed and again because of the skewness of the RR it wouldn't take a lot to drive the expected results into negative territory. To be frank I personally prefer something more dynamic based on knowledge of how the market works and how it is going to deliver my paydays..it's harder to learn but ultimately like riding a bike I suspect once mastered it will stay with you for ever.
2nd is the period tested ..used on the recent past with the Dow it's been tested on a basically choppy trading style of market but in a trending market up or down I think the win/loss rate would change and because of skewness in the RR that could be hugely significant.
3rd would be the execution ...you' d need to be a robot ..start messing about with it and again the win loss ration could be changed and again because of the skewness of the RR it wouldn't take a lot to drive the expected results into negative territory. To be frank I personally prefer something more dynamic based on knowledge of how the market works and how it is going to deliver my paydays..it's harder to learn but ultimately like riding a bike I suspect once mastered it will stay with you for ever.
Bigfind
before u have really got your system under your belt I wouldnt search for too many opinions on it...it could do you more harm than good...if you have figured out a good system & it works & you have faith in it......Just get on with it !........by looking for opinions on it you are prob doing 1 of 2 things 1. looking to market it ( I am not being cynical here) or
2. looking for other opinion to reinforce your belief in the system.
you will certainly find that some SB's will tag you once consistantly winning & can make you order process difficult.....but depending on your style of trading I am not certain this will affect you....but there are plenty of options out there......I am really suprised you havent researched this more if you have spent so much research on your system.......you must have to be 98% winner.
I am not being negative....I wish you all the luck & hope you succeed.
unfortunatly you wont know until you try.....your experiance with SB may be different to mine.
98% is fantastic....I believe trade management is the main key as really nobody can really be certain of any more than 50/50 I dont care what anyone says...as The market will do what it likes , & that is ok with me.
just pick one ....give them some cash, start with comfortable size , get on & c what happens.
I think CMC are currently the best SB......tho they shafted my orders when winning to much, but that was some time ago. their pltform is the best I have seen for SB
good luck
J
before u have really got your system under your belt I wouldnt search for too many opinions on it...it could do you more harm than good...if you have figured out a good system & it works & you have faith in it......Just get on with it !........by looking for opinions on it you are prob doing 1 of 2 things 1. looking to market it ( I am not being cynical here) or
2. looking for other opinion to reinforce your belief in the system.
you will certainly find that some SB's will tag you once consistantly winning & can make you order process difficult.....but depending on your style of trading I am not certain this will affect you....but there are plenty of options out there......I am really suprised you havent researched this more if you have spent so much research on your system.......you must have to be 98% winner.
I am not being negative....I wish you all the luck & hope you succeed.
unfortunatly you wont know until you try.....your experiance with SB may be different to mine.
98% is fantastic....I believe trade management is the main key as really nobody can really be certain of any more than 50/50 I dont care what anyone says...as The market will do what it likes , & that is ok with me.
just pick one ....give them some cash, start with comfortable size , get on & c what happens.
I think CMC are currently the best SB......tho they shafted my orders when winning to much, but that was some time ago. their pltform is the best I have seen for SB
good luck
J
Thank's again to everone who has contributed on this thread, you have given me lot's of food for thought.
I will look into all of the suggestion's made, I'm sure they will be of good use to me.
I am the learner here, and I bow to all of your better judgements. You guy's certainly sound like you know what you are doing.
I wish you all good luck in your future trades, and I hope that I will go on to have a nice piece of the pie, but as many of you have pointed out, trading for real is completely different to trading on paper. This is were I find out if I have really got the bottle or not to see it out.
Thanks again
bigfind
I will look into all of the suggestion's made, I'm sure they will be of good use to me.
I am the learner here, and I bow to all of your better judgements. You guy's certainly sound like you know what you are doing.
I wish you all good luck in your future trades, and I hope that I will go on to have a nice piece of the pie, but as many of you have pointed out, trading for real is completely different to trading on paper. This is were I find out if I have really got the bottle or not to see it out.
Thanks again
bigfind
commanderco
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bigfind said:
Nobody will ever ban a 98% winner, please put it out of your mind
another issue you have to take into account are the sb companys spreads, especially as you are just starting out, i dont know you're starting bank but im fairly certain you will be invited to open a controlled risk deposit account with igindex.now this does give you the failsafe of a guaranteed stop loss but, against this the spreads on a daily forex,dow bet etc can be quite high i.e. ranging anywhere between 14-4 points! im not saying this to put you off, but, if you opened a trade on the daily dow half an hour before the market opened you would be looking to pay an 11 point spread with ig! after the market opened it would drop down to nine. so now your 20 point target has risen to nearly 30 to get your 20 point profit minus the spread. 
i dont know how this affects your 98% accuracy but this is something you are gonna have to factor in if you want your system to work.all the best with it though, i hope it works for you.
i dont know how this affects your 98% accuracy but this is something you are gonna have to factor in if you want your system to work.all the best with it though, i hope it works for you.
houdani said:another issue you have to take into account are the sb companys spreads, especially as you are just starting out, i dont know you're starting bank but im fairly certain you will be invited to open a controlled risk deposit account with igindex.now this does give you the failsafe of a guaranteed stop loss but, against this the spreads on a daily forex,dow bet etc can be quite high i.e. ranging anywhere between 14-4 points! im not saying this to put you off, but, if you opened a trade on the daily dow half an hour before the market opened you would be looking to pay an 11 point spread with ig! after the market opened it would drop down to nine. so now your 20 point target has risen to nearly 30 to get your 20 point profit minus the spread.
Thanks for your input houdani
Yes the spread is a factor, I have a database of all my results so i can run queries for all different scenarios. Basicaly if I asked for 34 points and there was no spread, my system returns 97.87%. So I basically have 14 points in hand to allow for spread and any slight movements unaccounted for, as I am doing it on paper.
Actally the above results include yesterday, when my system would of failed. Although at the time I actally looked at the trade for yesterday I would of just got my 20 point's, it was more luck than anything else.
Bigbusiness
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I prefer CMC (used to be deal4free) to IG. Their spreads have been lower than IG's most of the time. That does make a big difference in the long term.
http://www.cmcmarkets.co.uk/eng/spreadbet/home.jsp
http://www.cmcmarkets.co.uk/eng/spreadbet/home.jsp
leovirgo
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Bigbusiness said:
Hi Big
I would like to know the average duration of your trades i.e how long you keep your position open until you close it in the profit.
If you use CFDs, then you will have to take financing costs into considerations...i.e, debit interest on long positons and also debit charges for dividend adjustments in short positions although you earn interest on these short positions.
best wishes....
Oh, come on, I can't believe the amount of coverage this guy has got from this query. I am very new to this too but come on ~ will he be banned by an SB? This is akin to the 1st form student runner obsessing now about tripping on his way to the podium to receive his Olympic gold medal. Isn't he getting a little ahead of himself?
If he has a foolproof system that is 98% perfect, well he really will have no problems in the future. Let's concentrate on us mere mortals who just want to learn to get to where we can keep our head above water ,ie 51"!!!!
If he has a foolproof system that is 98% perfect, well he really will have no problems in the future. Let's concentrate on us mere mortals who just want to learn to get to where we can keep our head above water ,ie 51"!!!!
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