Why do 95- 98% of retail traders fail

  • Welcome to the newest version of Trade2Win! We're running on the latest version of, what we consider to be, the best forum software available today. Our aim was to keep things as familiar as possible but focus on improving speed, security and usability. We hope you like the result! Please post your questions, comments, suggestions and feedback in the What's New and Feedback Thread - Sharky.

goose4

Active member
Aug 11, 2009
205
6
28
#21
I can tell you the hard facts with betfair. The king of betting exchange. I have a friend who works in accounts for the company.

He said 99.5 percent clients lose.

The 0.5 % takes it all.

I would say similar to financials.

You need the 99 percent losers in this game . As they pay the 1 percent.I paid my dues for years.We choose to give trading a try because if successful its lucrative. Its lucrative because of these stats. So embrace them.
 
Last edited:
Apr 3, 2017
3,620
136
73
#22
I can tell you the hard facts with betfair. The king of betting exchange. I have a friend who works in accounts for the company.

He said 99.5 percent clients lose.

The 0.5 % takes it all.

I would say similar to financials.

You need the 99 percent losers in this game . As they pay the 1 percent.I paid my dues for years.We choose to give trading a try because if successful its lucrative. Its lucrative because of these stats. So embrace them.

just have to look at the evidence available to confirm these figures.If One studies this subject and Human psychology it is most likely true , a full understanding of psychology will reveal the rationale for failures of the 95% .Is It lucrative With 0.5 percent?How?
 
Last edited:

goose4

Active member
Aug 11, 2009
205
6
28
#23
just have to look at the evidence available to confirm these figures.If One studies this subject and Human psychology it is most likely true , a full understanding of psychology will reveal the rationale for failures of the 95% .Is It lucrative With 0.5 percent?How?
Hi buddy.

Very true about psychology.

Its lucrative because trading is a zero sub game.The money just gets transferred.from the losers to the winners.

So the betfair example.Betfair has more single trades in a day than wall street.Crazy stat yes. So the 99.5 who lose the funds go to the 0.5. hence why if successful its lucrative.
 
Apr 3, 2017
3,620
136
73
#24
Hi buddy.

Very true about psychology.

Its lucrative because trading is a zero sub game.The money just gets transferred.from the losers to the winners.

So the betfair example.Betfair has more single trades in a day than wall street.Crazy stat yes. So the 99.5 who lose the funds go to the 0.5. hence why if successful its lucrative.
You have only 0.5% chance of going into the 0.5% ,trading is a probabilities games , unless you are BETFAIR spread earner.
 

goose4

Active member
Aug 11, 2009
205
6
28
#25
I will tell you a little gossip.I found the most interesting thing I encountered with trading.

Several years ago I was considering using pro spreads as a broker.

Prospreads had a seminar of how to use there platform and products in London.It was at bloomberg.

I attended. They had technical problems there,so they decided to take a taxis back to por spreads office to continue. We all took taxis, by luck I was in the same taxi as the CEO of prospreads. So I was curious to ask him how successful traders were there. He said at pro spreads you have more pros but still most lose ,he did not give any number. Now this is the interesting part.He said the biggest account they had was a guy with 27 million pound. But he mentioned the best trader he had ever seen. It was this guy that deposited 50 K. In 8 months he turned it to 950K. He said he was remarkable. He had more losing trades than winners,trading hundreds trades per day. I asked him was it luck? The look in his face,told it all. He said no,this guy was a machine,best trader he had seen ever at pro spreads. The funny thing is once he got to 950K he withdrew the funds,he did not go for the million ( you would of thought he would) and he never heard from him again. This is why forums can be dangerous. people parrot information. The notion that its impossible to make over 20 % per year from trading is impossible,for example is common. Electronic trading has made this a lot easier,and in terms of history of trading,its fairly new tool for day traders.
 
Last edited:
Apr 3, 2017
3,620
136
73
#26
I will tell you a little gossip.I found the most interesting thing I encountered with trading.

Several years ago I was considering using pro spreads as a broker.

Prospreads had a seminar of how to use there platform and products in London.It was at bloomberg.

I attended. They had technical problems there,so they decided to take a taxis back to por spreads office to continue. We all took taxis, by luck I was in the same taxi as the CEO of prospreads. So I was curious to ask him how successful traders were there. He said at pro spreads you have more pros but still most lose ,he did not give any number. Now this is the interesting part.He said the biggest account they had was a guy with 27 million pound. But he mentioned the best trader he had ever seen. It was this guy that deposited 50 K. In 8 months he turned it to 950K. He said he was remarkable. He had more losing trades than winners,trading hundreds trades per day. I asked him was it luck? The look in his face,told it all. He said no,this guy was a machine,best trader he had seen ever at pro spreads. The funny thing is once he got to 950K he withdrew the funds,he did not go for the million ( you would of thought he would) and he never heard from him again. This is why forums can be dangerous. people parrot information. The notion that its impossible to make over 20 % per year from trading is impossible,for example is common. Electronic trading has made this a lot easier,and in terms of history of trading,its fairly new tool for day traders.
Indeed a very good customer , who paid a lot of spreads and rebates , they were all making a killing by him overtrading.
 

postman

Well-known member
May 20, 2005
20,642
2,186
323
#27
I will tell you a little gossip.I found the most interesting thing I encountered with trading.

Several years ago I was considering using pro spreads as a broker.

Prospreads had a seminar of how to use there platform and products in London.It was at bloomberg.

I attended. They had technical problems there,so they decided to take a taxis back to por spreads office to continue. We all took taxis, by luck I was in the same taxi as the CEO of prospreads. So I was curious to ask him how successful traders were there. He said at pro spreads you have more pros but still most lose ,he did not give any number. Now this is the interesting part.He said the biggest account they had was a guy with 27 million pound. But he mentioned the best trader he had ever seen. It was this guy that deposited 50 K. In 8 months he turned it to 950K. He said he was remarkable. He had more losing trades than winners,trading hundreds trades per day. I asked him was it luck? The look in his face,told it all. He said no,this guy was a machine,best trader he had seen ever at pro spreads. The funny thing is once he got to 950K he withdrew the funds,he did not go for the million ( you would of thought he would) and he never heard from him again. This is why forums can be dangerous. people parrot information. The notion that its impossible to make over 20 % per year from trading is impossible,for example is common. Electronic trading has made this a lot easier,and in terms of history of trading,its fairly new tool for day traders.
It took me 5 years to make that first £50k though!
 

postman

Well-known member
May 20, 2005
20,642
2,186
323
#32
Call me dumb or dumber than stupid , I won't tell when milkman bangs yohho woife!
Maybe its me but I dont understand 95% of the things you post. 1,459 posts since April and most just say "Search google for ...", or they are cut and pastes from other peoples posts.

Also there is a saying that goes along the lines of "If everyone thinks your an idiot, then 'you are' an idiot".
"i haven't mentioned anything about map reading dummy"
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...rt-war-can-applied-trading-2.html#post2916664
 
Likes: NickBk

darktone

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2003
3,917
999
123
#33
Maybe its me but I dont understand 95% of the things you post. 1,459 posts since April and most just say "Search google for ...", or they are cut and pastes from other peoples posts.

Also there is a saying that goes along the lines of "If everyone thinks your an idiot, then 'you are' an idiot".
"i haven't mentioned anything about map reading dummy"
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...rt-war-can-applied-trading-2.html#post2916664
I think he's about as drunk now as when he was typing his user name in for the first time.
 
Jun 23, 2014
35
3
18
#34
I can tell you the hard facts with betfair. The king of betting exchange. I have a friend who works in accounts for the company.

He said 99.5 percent clients lose.

The 0.5 % takes it all.

I would say similar to financials.

You need the 99 percent losers in this game . As they pay the 1 percent.I paid my dues for years.We choose to give trading a try because if successful its lucrative. Its lucrative because of these stats. So embrace them.
Interesting statistics. So the 0.5%, is that the proportion of accounts that are in profit? How is the 99.5% calculated?
 
Apr 3, 2017
3,620
136
73
#35
Maybe its me but I dont understand 95% of the things you post. 1,459 posts since April and most just say "Search google for ...", or they are cut and pastes from other peoples posts.

Also there is a saying that goes along the lines of "If everyone thinks your an idiot, then 'you are' an idiot".
"i haven't mentioned anything about map reading dummy"
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...rt-war-can-applied-trading-2.html#post2916664
He has two nicks .He was giving a dumb argument , so he could not make any valid points.I pointed out his dumb argument.
 
Apr 3, 2017
3,620
136
73
#36

NickBk

Well-known member
Mar 16, 2015
1,915
498
93
#37

tomorton

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2002
6,982
893
173
62
Exeter
#39
I will tell you a little gossip.I found the most interesting thing I encountered with trading.

Several years ago I was considering using pro spreads as a broker.

Prospreads had a seminar of how to use there platform and products in London.It was at bloomberg.

I attended. They had technical problems there,so they decided to take a taxis back to por spreads office to continue. We all took taxis, by luck I was in the same taxi as the CEO of prospreads. So I was curious to ask him how successful traders were there. He said at pro spreads you have more pros but still most lose ,he did not give any number. Now this is the interesting part.He said the biggest account they had was a guy with 27 million pound. But he mentioned the best trader he had ever seen. It was this guy that deposited 50 K. In 8 months he turned it to 950K. He said he was remarkable. He had more losing trades than winners,trading hundreds trades per day. I asked him was it luck? The look in his face,told it all. He said no,this guy was a machine,best trader he had seen ever at pro spreads. The funny thing is once he got to 950K he withdrew the funds,he did not go for the million ( you would of thought he would) and he never heard from him again. This is why forums can be dangerous. people parrot information. The notion that its impossible to make over 20 % per year from trading is impossible,for example is common. Electronic trading has made this a lot easier,and in terms of history of trading,its fairly new tool for day traders.

This illustrates the most important thing to understand about percentages. The key is % of what?

When the firm says it has 0.5% of clients who are profitable, that excludes the clients who were profitable and left. Also those who were not profitable and left but are now profitable elsewhere. And it does not specify over what period these clients were not profitable - so does it mean not profitable ever or per year or that particular year to date or over the last month or is it even per day?

It certainly also excludes any mention of how unprofitable were the 99.5% - so they may have lost £100 over a year, but so what? Anyone can lose £100 from some small fun account and it won't be a major financial blow to anyone. But almost anyone can also the next year make £100 profit if £100 is all they need and aim for.

Again, is this organisation or this type of trading vehicle really where serious traders go for their accounts? So even if we knew all the ifs and buts, its only a snapshot of the results of a self-selected very narrow group. Nothing to extrapolate from.

So, while I have no reason to doubt the 99.5% figure, its right out of context. It is therefore absolutely incorrect to say there is just a 0.5% probability of being a profitable trader.