Warren Buffet suceeded , 95 % of traders fail

[cantagril]

You must be focussed on live accounts , with clear strategy , so I am working on removing the snake oil of market timing...

I'm not completely clear as to why you think your understanding of market behaviour and trading approaches is exceptionally effective. Your insistence on "timing" or lack of it suggests to me that you are concentrating on strategies that are Theta / Delta dependent but evidence of those strategies is not immediately evident from the dummy trades that you've posted.

Perhaps you could succinctly outline the rationale of your particular strategy with examples from your real accounts and explain the role of the greeks and just how you are calculating the required cover for any given position.

 

[foroom lluzers]

I'm not completely clear as to why you think your understanding of market behaviour and trading approaches is exceptionally effective. Your insistence on "timing" or lack of it suggests to me that you are concentrating on strategies that are Theta / Delta dependent but evidence of those strategies is not immediately evident from the dummy trades that you've posted.

Perhaps you could succinctly outline the rationale of your particular strategy with examples from your real accounts and explain the role of the greeks and just how you are calculating the required cover for any given position.

I am trying to keep it simple ,so the stupid can understand .K I S S

There is no need to make it complex using greeks .Keep it simple stupid.Here buy the dips with muliple entries on the dips with options as a stop loss ,like a grid .It can also possibly be done on a weekly /monthly basis.

My views on market timing are very simple.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...-what-happens-when-you-try-time-market-7.html

After every fall add a long entry ,wait for a few weeks for a rebound for profits to materialize.Catching the lowest low is timing the markets ,it works for genuises on forums , but I am too stupid to do it succesfully.

 

[cantagril]

I am trying to keep it simple ,so the stupid can understand .K I S S

There is no need to make it complex using greeks .Keep it simple stupid.Here buy the dips with muliple entries on the dips with options as a stop loss ,like a grid .It can also possibly be done on a weekly /monthly basis.

My views on market timing are very simple.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...-what-happens-when-you-try-time-market-7.html

After every fall add a long entry ,wait for a few weeks for a rebound for profits to materialize.Catching the lowest low is timing the markets ,it works for genuises on forums , but I am too stupid to do it succesfully.

I had thought as much. So how much have you estimated your statistical advantage to be?...and over what period, historically?

 

[foroom lluzers]

I had thought as much. So how much have you estimated your statistical advantage to be?...and over what period, historically?

I do not trade today for the market set ups of the last 30 years .There is no fixed patterns , beliefs about past and repeatable technical patterns can lead to failure in the future.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/223150-most-back-testing-useless.html

 

[cantagril]

I do not trade today for the market set ups of the last 30 years .There is no fixed patterns , beliefs about past and repeatable technical patterns can lead to failure in the future.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/223150-most-back-testing-useless.html

I'm not interested in theoretical numbers but your own experience. You maintain that you have a consistently successful strategy and I'm merely trying to establish what that advantage gives you as a percentage of the trades you've made over say, the last year or two. The baseline being 50%, how many points over that are you and how many points over the less successful strategy that you were using previously?

 

[foroom lluzers]

I'm not interested in theoretical numbers but your own experience. You maintain that you have a consistently successful strategy and I'm merely trying to establish what that advantage gives you as a percentage of the trades you've made over say, the last year or two. The baseline being 50%, how many points over that are you and how many points over the less successful strategy that you were using previously?

The answer you want for yourself is here in this thread

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/223414-what-professionals-edge.html

Results are similiar to this depending on your strategy less the mistakes and psychology.

Only long biased trading /investing has only given 53% after mistakes and psychology , whereas back tests give 75%.

 

[cantagril]

The answer you want for yourself is here in this thread

Only long biased trading /investing has only given 53% after mistakes and psychology , whereas back tests give 75%.

Misunderstanding: I am not looking for an answer for myself from you.

As you have posted at length on several different threads regarding your view of trading generally, the markets, strategies and the problems of human psychology/neuroscience etc etc I was interested to see how all this translates into hard numbers. Unless I'm mistaken you are saying that your approach gives you an edge that converts to 3%.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Misunderstanding: I am not looking for an answer for myself from you.

As you have posted at length on several different threads regarding your view of trading generally, the markets, strategies and the problems of human psychology/neuroscience etc etc I was interested to see how all this translates into hard numbers. Unless I'm mistaken you are saying that your approach gives you an edge that converts to 3%.

Real traders will find 3% to 25 % depending on other mental and execution skills .
It is only 3% in reality.

Now you can all laugh !

 

[Pat494]

Real traders will find 3% to 25 % depending on other mental and execution skills .
It is only 3% in reality.

Now you can all laugh !

Is that a 3% profit or loss maestro ??

:cheesy:

 

[foroom lluzers]

Is that a 3% profit or loss maestro ??

:cheesy:

profit but look on the bright side , this year I am for getting 25% edge.It is never too late.

 

[tomorton]

Is that a 3% profit or loss maestro ??

:cheesy:

Ouch!

 

[foroom lluzers]

No I lost 22 % of potential profits , so it is a loss of potential.

 

[Pat494]

Anyone know how much he started out with ?
It helps to have a sizeable wad. Starting on a very small budget can rush things a lot.

 

[piphoe]

WB isn't and never was a trader. He BUYS majority stake in companies and takes control. That's not trading, thats takeovers, hostile as well tenders.

as diff as apples to kiwi

 

[foroom lluzers]

WB isn't and never was a trader. He BUYS majority stake in companies and takes control. That's not trading, thats takeovers, hostile as well tenders.

as diff as apples to kiwi

r You chewing both with ganji?

http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

 

[foroom lluzers]

I admire WB and his success. He rightly saw the everlasting boom from the sixties and capitalized on it. Was he so good in the slump years ? Don't know the stats but he is still around big time so I guess he did OK.

How much of it was due to money printing and removal of gold by Nixon in 1972?

Dollar was worth 1/35th of an ounce of gold ,today it is

 

[foroom lluzers]

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”― Warren Buffett

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

“Rule No. 1 : Never lose money. Rule No. 2 : Never forget Rule No. 1.” don't use stops

 

[foroom lluzers]

 

[foroom lluzers]

 

[foroom lluzers]

Here is the method to generate 50 ticks a week on average , by buying the dips.It requires a 2000 tick account and earns 2,500 ticks a year.That is equivalent to 125% a year.



http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ind...pport-trading-indices-dow-dax-nasdaq-s-p.html