Warren Buffet suceeded , 95 % of traders fail

Warren Buffett's been rightly critical of fund managers' fees, but he is a fund manager talking to fund managers about fees. He's not a private retail trader talking to private retail traders about beating an index.

Makes no difference to the likes of us whatever fees are charged by the industry cause we ain't payin em. The fact that he's right about this question doesn't qualify him as the fount of all knowledge.
 
tomorton said:
Warren Buffett's been rightly critical of fund managers' fees, but he is a fund manager talking to fund managers about fees. He's not a private retail trader talking to private retail traders about beating an index.

Makes no difference to the likes of us whatever fees are charged by the industry cause we ain't payin em. The fact that he's right about this question doesn't qualify him as the fount of all knowledge.
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It is more about the the ability of funds to beat the index.

"I publicly offered to wager $500,000 that no investment pro could select a set of at least five hedge funds – wildly-popular and high-fee investing vehicles – that would over an extended period match the performance of an unmanaged S&P-500 index fund charging only token fees. I suggested a ten-year bet and named a low-cost Vanguard S&P fund as my contender. I then sat back and waited expectantly for a parade of fund managers – who could include their own fund as one of the five – to come forth and defend their occupation. After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line?"
 
No, Buffett's argument is not about funds beating the index, its about funds beating funds.

I can't speak for the investment pros who didn't take up his bet, but it has to be noticed he didn't challenge private retail traders, which is what we are. If we didn't believe we could beat our selected index, we wouldn't be doing what we're doing. And there's a significant number of people out there who do beat the index, some are traders, some are investors, but none of whom do it with the "help" of a fund manager.
 
Here is how to beat Warren Buffet by trading (if only I had no brains).So here someone is showing how to be successful and trade profitably.

9 trades in 3 weeks ,according to the results below.35% profit on £20,000 , if traders can do 50% in a year , it is great , it is better than ending up in the 95% club.

The problem with retail traders is they learn the non-profitable ways and the wrong methods of making money , because they are surrounded by unsuccesful and profitable methods , they are being taught market timing methods and systems that are no good for their own good.These include scalpers getting scalped , trading forex without an edge , trading price action noise (the vendors can not make money from trading these) , day trading and other losing methods.

Forex factory has 2,500 worthless systems and price action education , they make a lot of money from this education ,the retail traders lose but the real professional traders trade like this :

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/223410-how-profeessionals-trade-forex.html

These people only trade currencies backed by fundamentals .

Search on the internet about real forex professionals .
No. 1: George Soros Vs. the British Pound
No. 2: Stanley Druckenmiller Bets on the Mark - Twice
No. 3: Andy Krieger Vs. the Kiwi
 

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We cant compare Buffet to day trading.

All styles require a combination of skills.

Buffet may never have the qualities to be a day trader.

The best are the best because of the reasons that make them so (sorry for stating the obvious).

It wont matter what style anyone has, if they dont possess the required skills for whichever format they choose.

Those that make a living day trading wont even bother to comment as they dont have to - nothing to prove -just get on with it day after day.

Everything is speculation.

Heres a thought - maybe the biggest 10 day traders (swing at a push) in the world actually possess more physical cash that Buffett????

Problem is we will never know who they are.

I agree with your main point of focus, but this goes well beyond market timing/format/assett classes.

Its all more to do with knowing thyself
 
Nice post walls. Interesting to speculate that Warren Buffett could be an even worse day-trader than me!

Raises another thought as you mention successful traders. Say a T2W trader raised their capital from say 10 or 20 or 30k to £1mill, what would they do? -
Keep trading with the £1mill, looking for 5 or 10 mill?
Keep the account small and continue trading off the £30k?
Stop trading?

Maybe someone lurking here has the answer........
 
tomorton said:
Raises another thought as you mention successful traders. Say a T2W trader raised their capital from say 10 or 20 or 30k to £1mill, what would they do? -
Keep trading with the £1mill, looking for 5 or 10 mill?
Keep the account small and continue trading off the £30k?
Stop trading?

Maybe someone lurking here has the answer........
Click to expand...

Here is the answer , most traders won't like to hear this.

Most will lose it and lose more , this is because our amygdala (faster emotional brain) , is extremely reactive to emotions /stress .It behaves automatically and wildly /erratically with money swings .I mentioned earlier , I had a trader inputting trade sizes 10 times larger than the system rules or what he intended.

Where are these revenge trades cming from? They are automatic responses during losing streaks.

The best type of trading , for successful trading , is set and forget.I know humans are clever ,like clever monkeys , they will blow it trying to get greedier and greedier.Why not make that huge profit every day?They will try doing it and they will blow.
 
tomorton said:
Nice post walls. Interesting to speculate that Warren Buffett could be an even worse day-trader than me!

Raises another thought as you mention successful traders. Say a T2W trader raised their capital from say 10 or 20 or 30k to £1mill, what would they do? -
Keep trading with the £1mill, looking for 5 or 10 mill?
Keep the account small and continue trading off the £30k?
Stop trading?

Maybe someone lurking here has the answer........
Click to expand...

Each to their own, not everybody wants world domination, hence It really gets my goat when you get smart arses saying "if you could earn this % why arent you a billionaire" - these people have no clue and their ignorance shows with a statement like this.

Your question is regarding a trader whom is successful/profitable - knows their onions, they are not concerned with other's opinions, they know enough about themselves, they know their limits (hence we are all different).

I know what I do/am - do you?

That's the bottom line IMHO

Personally I would never try to compete with options of others as I am not bothered.

But I would just leave with a parting message about it not being possible to time markets - what is a sweep (market move), it is a massive statement of intent, by whom?? - if thats not a good timing tool then I have no idea what is lol.

The hard part is spotting a legitimate sweep. But when you can - just trade this. If it comes back, get out (nothing is certain - accept this!), when it goes, add in more until you say thank you very much. Keep your exposure smallest at entry.

Most important, dont do anything until you see a bloody sweep! Come on, is that hard?

Now we will get to the real reason why so many fail. This can only be answered by the individual - are we emotional freaks?

Bottom line - self responsibility/awareness/acceptance (to need to change).

Then get trading (or investing) you chose
 
wallstreetwarrior87 said:
Its all more to do with knowing thyself
Click to expand...

The enemy is within us all and it is often uncontrollable.This is our ancestral brain .The psyche does not permit us to be successful at trading short term.

Search on google for "psychology today the enemy within"

 

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Most non-psychologists have no idea of how dangerous "the enemy within us "is , they have no idea of how retail traders will underperform , with different comfort zones.

K I S S has ben handed to us for generations , but are emotional greedy beings.Emotions will always get the better of us.

Testosterone
Nearly all of the traders that I have heard of losing millions or billions (including two minor cases that never became public) fit somewhere between the first two types.
They dealt in products that were not too complex (by investment banking standards) and could be traded in large volume.
But their products were complicated enough to create risks that were poorly understood - either by the trader himself, or by the people who were supposed to be overseeing him.
Oh, and by the way, I say "him" for a reason. The vast majority of traders are men. At spread-betting firm City Index, the male-to-female ratio of punters is 10:1.
The reason is to do with male physiology.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19849147

https://www.forbes.com/2008/04/16/t...ne-markets-face-cx_ll_0415autofacescan02.html


Understand this:The human brain is a poor judge of risk!
 
itspossible said:
im waiting for your link to a subscription service,you are a vendor correct?;)
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in next rebirth.

I think people misunderstand easy trading , trading is very easy , when doing it correctly.All the clueless herds are learning from their leaders , and doing the same thing over and over again,expecting different results.

I am working on a totally mechanical SET AND FORGET STRATEGY for this.
 
Let us say we do unbiased research on the internet and type in "why market timing doesn't work ".

Why should any short term strategy work , if it is much more difficult to time the entry , when profitability relies on it working?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-market-timing-doesnt-work-2013-10-23

Warren Buffet does not try to time the markets .Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions by attempting to predict future market price movements. Warren goes to 1 minute charts , 5 minute charts , 15 minute charts , 30 minute charts , 1 hour charts etc etc etc , then when they are all aligned , he buys.If the price breaks down , he takes a loss based on his mentor Alexander Elder , and follows a loser.
 
Self development is about self responsibility, so we need to be our own man/woman and work things out for ourselves.

Don't take what others say as the truth - they could bre wrong and lead you down a dead end road.

No article on the net is going to influence me other than to ask further questions, but the article itself is just a start for a process of questioning
 
foroom lluzers said:
Let us say we do unbiased research on the internet and type in "why market timing doesn't work ".

Why should any short term strategy work , if it is much more difficult to time the entry , when profitability relies on it working?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-market-timing-doesnt-work-2013-10-23

Warren Buffet does not try to time the markets .Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions by attempting to predict future market price movements. Warren goes to 1 minute charts , 5 minute charts , 15 minute charts , 30 minute charts , 1 hour charts etc etc etc , then when they are all aligned , he buys.If the price breaks down , he takes a loss based on his mentor Alexander Elder , and follows a loser.
Click to expand...
Its no my/your fault if an academic can't day trade. Leave it to them I say.
 
wallstreetwarrior87 said:
Its no my/your fault if an academic can't day trade. Leave it to them I say.
Click to expand...

It is not that they can not day trade , but they are not dumb enough to day trade .Same costs are involved in day trades or swing trades , resulting in less % profitability after costs in day trading.
 
foroom lluzers said:
Let us say we do unbiased research on the internet and type in "why market timing doesn't work ".

Why should any short term strategy work , if it is much more difficult to time the entry , when profitability relies on it working?
Click to expand...


Market timing does work, but not at the extreme time-frames like 30m or 25yrs.
 
tomorton said:
Market timing does work, but not at the extreme time-frames like 30m or 25yrs.
Click to expand...

Show us without hindsight results , how it is done in foresight.It means that you have a prediction model , that every time you enter a trade , it will be profitable .

If it worked , based on objective rules , every one can use that market timing model and everone rich.When do we see this model?

If it is subjective model , then it will work for a small proprtion of traders.
 
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