Will a 98% of the time winner be banned

[LION63]

BigFind,

I appreciate your candour and willingness to answer my questions. The answers have unlocked the 'mystery' of your method of trading. I would go as far as to say that the reason your method produces such spectacular results is that you are risking 150 points in order to make 25 points profit per trade.

This goes against what 99% of market participants advocate and practice. If that is how you intend to trade I would suggest you keep it to yourself as you will not receive any plaudits. No spread betting company will close your account(s) if you trade in this manner as they will simply view you as a 'Kamikaze' trader.

 

[bigfind]

9 months, 158 trades, 150 pt stops? Would i be stung? Would anybody on herion be stung? You tell me, Big. Rude.

Yes Rude

Anybody who bought a system would be stung.

for if the seller needs to sell, then the system is rubbish. Everybody knows that. I didn't realise when i started this post that it would be taken this way, looking back it is obvious really. What i tell you, i believe to be the truth, maybe there is something i haven't taken into account in my system, this post has thrown up some things i need to look into.

But I will only know for sure when I try it for real with my hard earned cash, at the end of the day all i want is the name of a good spreadbetting firm. That's it.
someone suggested idindex.co.uk so i will try them out

 

[RUDEBOY]

Something tells me you are not the blaggard i thought you was, just a beginner. Or am i going soft. Rude.

 

[bigfind]

BigFind,

I appreciate your candour and willingness to answer my questions. The answers have unlocked the 'mystery' of your method of trading. I would go as far as to say that the reason your method produces such spectacular results is that you are risking 150 points in order to make 25 points profit per trade.

This goes against what 99% of market participants advocate and practice. If that is how you intend to trade I would suggest you keep it to yourself as you will not receive any plaudits. No spread betting company will close your account(s) if you trade in this manner as they will simply view you as a 'Kamikaze' trader.

that's exactly right, but if it is succesful 98% of the time, ie 156 out of 158 I only lose 300 points, but how many have i won.
I hope they do regard me as a Kamikaze trader, but for how long

 

[bigfind]

Something tells me you are not the blaggard i thought you was, just a beginner. Or am i going soft. Rude.

beginner is exactly right, i have never traded a penny of cash, only on paper. hence the need for advice.

I suppose I was naive not to realise how this would look

 

[LION63]

BigFind,

You need not worry about accounts being closed by any spread betting company, they are like bookies and casino operators who believe that the punter is a mug and headed for a fall. By the time they realise they are wrong, you will have moved on to other spread betting companies or set up Direct Access accounts.

The problem is that I doubt you will be able to stay the course and stick with the method that has yielded these paper profits. The tendency is to cut the risk factor (150 points) and increase the reward (25 points), this in turn changes the success rate and eventually you will end up like many other aspiring traders - blaming everyone else for their failure.

 

[donaldduke]

Your confidence could well be misplaced.

Your system would win on average (by random) 87% of time.

It doesn take much of a swing to get a 95% winning streak on 158 bets.

Just like if you toss a coin 158 times, you could easily get heads a 100 times instead of
the expected 79.

Be careful.

 

[Racer]

that's exactly right, but if it is succesful 98% of the time, ie 156 out of 158 I only lose 300 points, but how many have i won.
I hope they do regard me as a Kamikaze trader, but for how long

Probably for a long time

 

[chump]

Big,
Let's be positive ..you win nothing by not entering the race..so if I were you and I was so confident in my statistics and you appear to be so, I would do this...at 20 : 150 I'd try 7 shots just to see what happened on the basis that I could afford the worst case scenario of losing £1050. You'll soon find out if your stats hold up sufficiently well to continue.
Good Luck ..

 

[bigfind]

BigFind,

You need not worry about accounts being closed by any spread betting company, they are like bookies and casino operators who believe that the punter is a mug and headed for a fall. By the time they realise they are wrong, you will have moved on to other spread betting companies or set up Direct Access accounts.

The problem is that I doubt you will be able to stay the course and stick with the method that has yielded these paper profits. The tendency is to cut the risk factor (150 points) and increase the reward (25 points), this in turn changes the success rate and eventually you will end up like many other aspiring traders - blaming everyone else for their failure.

Thank you, i will look into Direct access, and also igindex

I am sorry if i have offended anyone on this forum, my intentions are genuine. I will continue to visit the forum for advice, and will keep you posted when I do my first real trade. I am hoping sod's law does not come into force.

 

[Racer]

If you want to open a spreadbet account look at the t2w threads on spreadbet companies that have the best reputation, or dma or others, there is a lot of information on this site, you have to look for yourself

 

[schoe]

Thank you, i will look into Direct access, and also igindex

I am sorry if i have offended anyone on this forum, my intentions are genuine. I will continue to visit the forum for advice, and will keep you posted when I do my first real trade. I am hoping sod's law does not come into force.

Trading and Sods Law have been married for years as i've found out many times.

 

[bigfind]

Thank you to all who have offered advice and encouragement. i intend to start trading small and build up gradually. I do not intend going in feet first and trying to win a fortune overnight, i am in this for the long hall.
I basically want to keep my head down, and try not to get noticed.

thanks again

bigfind

 

[Racer]

Thank you to all who have offered advice and encouragement. i intend to start trading small and build up gradually. I do not intend going in feet first and trying to win a fortune overnight, i am in this for the long hall.
I basically want to keep my head down, and try not to get noticed.

thanks again

bigfind

Just trade and do it, read this site, lots of very useful info here

 

[donaldduke]

Do one final test.

Add 10pts to the market data you have.

For example if you were long and your stop was 10525 and the market hit 10535, assume you
were stopped out on that trade.

Whats is your win rate then?

The reason why i say that both SB and Direct Access use Futures price, the price can
spike a head of the cash price you have probably been using.

The will not benefit you profit taking exit but will mean you lose much more often than you might
expect.

Be careful.

 

[chump]

Actually doing the numbers you'll have to start small anyway unless you have untold wealth at your disposal ,but if you are willing to chip away with this you might do ok..
some numbers for you..
assume cap = £3,000
assume you risk 5% per trade (which is more than most would advocate) ,but with a high percentage win ratio like this would seem reasonable to me ..this gives you the minimum bet size of £1 a point..
then approx in 150 wins your capital grows to £6,000 which with the same risk allows you to double your bet size to £2 a point.
then gets interesting because next in approx only 75 wins your capital becomes £9,000 and bet size £3 pp following a further 50 wins grows the capital to £12,000 and so on and so forth with bet size appreciating at a faster rate has capital grows. This is rough and ready of course and introduces eventually the psychological angle of whether you get 'stuck' at a particular absolute real money size

 

[LION63]

Chump,

You must be an accountant.

The problem with your post is that it goes against what the majority believe - compounding and the reinvestment of capital. Their argument is that the same number of bad trades decimates the account. Whilst I subscribe to your breakdown especially as the method has such a high success rate, I am viewed by some as a gunslinger.

 

[Racer]

Do one final test.

Add 10pts to the market data you have.

For example if you were long and your stop was 10525 and the market hit 10535, assume you
were stopped out on that trade.

Whats is your win rate then?

The reason why i say that both SB and Direct Access use Futures price, the price can
spike a head of the cash price you have probably been using.

The will not benefit you profit taking exit but will mean you lose much more often than you might
expect.

Be careful.

and add commission and possibly platform charges

 

[chump]

Lion,
"The problem with your post is that it goes against what the majority believe " ...then this must be bestowed to be a success because what most believe is hogwash ..that's why I have all the money I will ever need and they are still scratching a living ..that's not meant to sound arrogant although I know it will be taken that way...basically you don't make serious money by walking in other people's footsteps.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Beholders of the truth, there may be few? Beholders of bull, there may be many? But, are there many beholders of the double vinyl album of 'The Great Rock 'n' Roll Swindle', by the Sex Pistols? Could you do me a copy? Nice one, RB.