Why Top Retail traders V Commercial Traders

[Liquid validity]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...ders-v-commercial-traders-25.html#post2254014

F, you haven't forgotten about the account leverage issue I raised have you?
I know you said on your journal thread you use 0.5-1% risk.

Even 1% risk with a 5 point stop is still 20x account leverage.
Anyone using 2% risk with a 5 point stop is running 40x account leverage...

Its fair to say that with volatility as it is at present, it may not be as big an issue.
Not if, but when volatility increases again, 20-40x account leverage
could catch quite a few people out...

 

[Forexmospherian]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...ders-v-commercial-traders-25.html#post2254014

F, you haven't forgotten about the account leverage issue I raised have you?
I know you said on your journal thread you use 0.5-1% risk.

Even 1% risk with a 5 point stop is still 20x account leverage.
Anyone using 2% risk with a 5 point stop is running 40x account leverage...

Its fair to say that with volatility as it is at present, it may not be as big an issue.
Not if, but when volatility increases again, 20-40x account leverage
could catch quite a few people out...

Hi LV

Sorry - i did forget your post.

I would agree with you anyone using 2% and above with a 5 pip stop - needs to be a very experienced scalper - or a trader risking taking chunks out of his small account - in exchange for quick percentage growth.

Personally I have used leverage as high as 500 : 1 but only on small account sizes - knowing if I blow say $100 - its still less than having a trade on my main account with a stake size of say 0.4% with more normal broker leverage of 100 or 50:1

I think I should probably say fairly often on my thread - don't attempt to trade with small stops of 4 -7 pips at stake above 1% unless you know of all the consequences that may occur with a row of losses. I regularly have 2 or 3 consecutive losses - but many times do not wait for the full 5 pips to be taken .

i have been very fortunate not to have more than 7 losses in a row - but there is nothing to say that might one day stretch to 9 or even 10 - you just never know

Saying that - will I ever be fortunate to achieve 35 or even 50 consecutive wins - that would also be a first for me -

Hope you have started January off well and have a great month

Regards

F

 

[Liquid validity]

OK, TBH though, I personally think 0.5% R with that stop size is safer,
as max leverage is only 10x then, which is still higher
than the generally recommended 5x account leverage.

Glad you agree no one should be using 2% risk with a 5 point stop though.

 

[Shakone]

Hi LV

i have been very fortunate not to have more than 7 losses in a row - but there is nothing to say that might one day stretch to 9 or even 10 - you just never know

Do you mean you've never had more than 7 losses in a row?

 

[Forexmospherian]

Do you mean you've never had more than 7 losses in a row?

Hi Shakone

I need to clarify this point further - but as far as I am aware during approximately the last 4 to 5 years and somewhere between 8 -9000 live trades - all taken with soft stops of approx 5 pips - ( min 3 pips max 8 pips ) I have not suffered with more than 7 ( seven) consecutive losses and never had more than mid twenties ( cannot remember whether it is 24 or 27) wins in a row.

Please remember I am a short term intraday multi trader - and 1 to 3 losses of over minus 1 pip are common - but similar any win over 1 pip - whether its $10 or $100+ is counted as a win.

That's why my entry is paramount and I have to time it correctly so that even if I have got the trade wrong and the move does not make 5 -25+ pips - I can still bail with hopefully a couple of pips. I am working at the so called "coalface" with tick and 1 min charts plus a stopwatch facility - so if all the other clues are correct 65% to 85% accuracy in always on.

I have also been able to to tackle a multi consecutive loss issues - with a method that works for me - ie

I expect losses daily - I am used to them as I have had thousands in total over the years - but 2 in a row is no problem. If I get to 4 losses in a row - i stop for at least 30 mins or even longer - and then make sure my next trade - I immediately take profit and grab what I can within a few seconds or minutes.

To make it more difficult - I also tighten up my stop allowance - I rarely allow bad trades under 3 pips if I can see the timing is wrong - so even after 2 losses in a row - I am trying to focus on just breaking the sequence - as it give you a PMA.

So this last year - I will have had 4 losses in a row - maybe even 5 losses in a row ( I dont remember) - but the last time 7 losses in a row happened is back in that 2008 /9 period.

Spikes also can catch me out - even without a hard stop - but unless its a genuine 15 -25+ pip spike - I will argue and moan with the broker if i see that is as not happened on another live feed. I have been taught to moan and argue profusely by my wife - she finds fault with everything possible - and so it does rub off

Traders who have fixed stops and set targets should suffer more "black swan" events as the forex market is dynamic - and therefore you should always move with the changes. Flexibility is so important in trading - but I can hardly try and and take entries with just a 2 pip stop with a 1 pip cost included - that would give me too many problems

Hope that helps and gives you and Random more ammunition to say I am a complete nutter ;-) - meanwhile I will just carry on as normal

Regards

F

 

[Pondlifedregsbutler]

Now showing.....

 

[Shakone]

Hi Shakone

I need to clarify this point further - but as far as I am aware during approximately the last 4 to 5 years and somewhere between 8 -9000 live trades - all taken with soft stops of approx 5 pips - ( min 3 pips max 8 pips ) I have not suffered with more than 7 ( seven) consecutive losses and never had more than mid twenties ( cannot remember whether it is 24 or 27) wins in a row.

Please remember I am a short term intraday multi trader - and 1 to 3 losses of over minus 1 pip are common - but similar any win over 1 pip - whether its $10 or $100+ is counted as a win.

That's why my entry is paramount and I have to time it correctly so that even if I have got the trade wrong and the move does not make 5 -25+ pips - I can still bail with hopefully a couple of pips. I am working at the so called "coalface" with tick and 1 min charts plus a stopwatch facility - so if all the other clues are correct 65% to 85% accuracy in always on.

I have also been able to to tackle a multi consecutive loss issues - with a method that works for me - ie

I expect losses daily - I am used to them as I have had thousands in total over the years - but 2 in a row is no problem. If I get to 4 losses in a row - i stop for at least 30 mins or even longer - and then make sure my next trade - I immediately take profit and grab what I can within a few seconds or minutes.

To make it more difficult - I also tighten up my stop allowance - I rarely allow bad trades under 3 pips if I can see the timing is wrong - so even after 2 losses in a row - I am trying to focus on just breaking the sequence - as it give you a PMA.

So this last year - I will have had 4 losses in a row - maybe even 5 losses in a row ( I dont remember) - but the last time 7 losses in a row happened is back in that 2008 /9 period.

Spikes also can catch me out - even without a hard stop - but unless its a genuine 15 -25+ pip spike - I will argue and moan with the broker if i see that is as not happened on another live feed. I have been taught to moan and argue profusely by my wife - she finds fault with everything possible - and so it does rub off

Traders who have fixed stops and set targets should suffer more "black swan" events as the forex market is dynamic - and therefore you should always move with the changes. Flexibility is so important in trading - but I can hardly try and and take entries with just a 2 pip stop with a 1 pip cost included - that would give me too many problems

Hope that helps and gives you and Random more ammunition to say I am a complete nutter ;-) - meanwhile I will just carry on as normal

Regards

F

Probably have a fairly high win rate then, around 70-75% I'd guess.

 

[NVP]

at the end of the day and whether one believes F or not .......the best thing about this thread is that any Newbie or wannbee trader should by now realise that to make it as a professional day trader you really do have to be 100% focused, have years of experience and have a very very tried and trusted method of trading ..........leaving absolutely nothing to chance

Thats probably the best warning I can think of to the people paying out silly money to the idiots telling them its easy

I had a mentor a few years back who was just like this ...............even just the processes and backups regarding Hardware / software and Broker Platforms were like apollo mission control ...........the guy left absolutely nothing to chance before he had even thought about his trading systems

N

 

[random12345]

Nice returns random. May I ask do you trade directional or spread? Understand if you cannot say.

GTTY

CM, it's algorithmic trading plain and simple, of course closer to directional than spread, but it's not directional either in any definition I know of. I have little to no knowledge about spread trading except its use on STIRs, an inefficiency I'm amazed remains without effecting the spread of the underlying instruments at the point of entry on a widening two-instrument spread, but that's kinda off topic. Anyway, the Sharpe is quite low for those returns due to the volatility on when the free money over Abe's madness became much less free. However, the Japanese Yen was lucrative for me and pretty much everyone else during Q2-Q3 (US Q interpretation). High returns mean little without a high Sharpe for reasons I am so bored of repeating and FXmo doesn't get....

 

[random12345]

You have confused me now by answering me exactly how I thought you would to my question - and of course not saying if you are involved in HFT trading and of course the size of the forex fund you trade ?

I am supposed to learn off you - not you learn off me

I don't know why I am answering your questions, as I've said before we have shown excessive courtesy in addressing your points, whereas you completely ignore ours or give knowingly pathetic dodges. I am not involved in HFT, you need an extremely low comms rate, co-location, just too much to explain at your level of comprehension of how this stuff works (no offence) blah blah. Given the lack of genuine info you have shared (i.e. none), I am not going to tell you my AUM... that's beyond the pale.

 

[random12345]

Totally wrong here.

I really cannot be bothered to go back through the posts - but from the first time you requested you wanted my Sharpe Ratio - and then wanted it within 10 minutes - I commented it would be a waste of time - as comparing apples with oranges and the sharpe ratio in isolation was of no real value to me and was not one of the indicators I used in my own performance assessments.

I never demanded your Sharpe within 10 minutes, I said it constituted 10 minutes work. Here you go, just for your addled mind:

After being patient with you after asking numerous times, I said "Just give me the ratio FX... it takes 10 minutes to figure out using your dailies."

Don't try and spin things that are a matter of written record... we waited many many hours without deriding your dodges for your Sharpe ratio before I even mentioned that.

Cannot you remember that far back ? - ie I said and repeated several times as normal - The Sharpe Ratio as many weaknesses and the number in isolation means nothing in retail forex trading - of course you were not interested then and were probably more frustrated and annoyed with accountancy companies like Ernst & Young and any chubby woman who trade forex

I can - you can't. You gave none of the weaknesses, you linked to two websites, both of which had nothing of note, one was so childish it caused a great deal of amusement. I told you in my previous post why there were very few weaknesses in the formula I gave you when we have your dailies variant. Very good spin attempt on this post. By very good, I mean absolutely awful Fox News level idiocy.

EY are a firm, not a company. How long were you involved as a director again? How are the CTA today? On your back again? Just you wait till the Inland Revenue and their special list start demanding their piece of the action. Haha! Tit.

lol - sorry I am laughing about that

Even you know you're full of sh!t FX, even you.

 

[random12345]

Spikes also can catch me out - even without a hard stop - but unless its a genuine 15 -25+ pip spike - I will argue and moan with the broker if i see that is as not happened on another live feed. I have been taught to moan and argue profusely by my wife - she finds fault with everything possible - and so it does rub off

I recall with much amusement that you had no idea a bid rate change had occurred and considered it a price action spike until advised otherwise. A BID RATE CHANGE. Especially since back then you were paying zero spreads, remember that comedy gold? I even warned you before the event that a big move was coming and you shoulda made a fortune since without a spread, the market has no way to trump any stop order move you could have made. Ah the good old days when you hadn't completely absorbed the boards into your smelly mass.

If you're arguing with your broker about spikes or slippage then you don't believe your broker is an ECN or you believe their matching engine is significantly flawed. In either case, you should leave the broker. If they reimburse you then they also believe their technology is flawed or are knowingly last looking your orders. Again, a reason to leave, immediately.

 

[Forexmospherian]

If you're arguing with your broker about spikes or slippage then you don't believe your broker is an ECN or you believe their matching engine is significantly flawed. In either case, you should leave the broker. If they reimburse you then they also believe their technology is flawed or are knowingly last looking your orders. Again, a reason to leave, immediately.

That part - I would agree with you. FXPro cannot be a full ECN broker from what I have witnessed during late November / early December. I complained and I am sure many more would have done as well. Since December 18th it seems to have stopped completely. Still know I have got to look at leaving due to other tricks going on as well.

So you know my AUM - still not got a clue about yours ........ and with regards being full of ****e and a tit - please carry on - I can't help it if you are not very well endowed and need to use the chip on shoulder and that bad tongue of yours to make up for it .

My expertise here is purely daily short term trading in the RETAIL forex market. I can just imagine you sifting through my other thread one day and finding a loss of 3 pips and completely trying to pull my credibility totally apart - etc - saying things like - you don't know what you are doing - you are a loser - you will never make money in the retail market - any one following you is crazy etc etc.

So lets get it straight now - COB time ( **** on the block ) time in my old world

You say it is impossible for any retail trader to average 30 -50% per month over say 2 years with capital over $25 k - but under $100k ???

Remember - this is with no compounding - let say profits withdrawn twice monthly etc with capital balances remaining always within say 10-15%

You should be able to work this out and say yes or no within 10 minutes I reckon - OK

Look forward to your answer - but cut the abuse please - it shows inner weakness.

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

EY are a firm, not a company. .

If you mean Ernst & Young - the accountants - you are just being totally pedantic and really "nit picking" on points irrelevant to the core topic

Yes I would say the "devil is in the detail" - - OK they have been re-branded to EY in 2013 but for my working life and even for the work they did on the Iron FX traders in 2012 - it was the name that had been around for 20+ yrs ie Ernst & Young. Similar with the old Inland Revenue - I was retired when they became the HMCE - after having 25 yrs of disagreements with them as the IR.

Does this type of stuff really make you feel superior ?

Have you got "little man syndrome" or even worse you might be losing your hair ?

You need to up your game here Random - and of course answer my two questions now

No problems though - I do have patience

Regards

F

 

[robster970]

Have you got "little man syndrome" or even worse you might be losing your hair ?

Short bald men are great lovers.

BTW, the only response I have to your large post where you answered the question I posed is as follows:

Your assertion that the Sharpe is not applicable today is like asserting that calculus has no use today because it was derived in the 17th century. It is specious.

 

[random12345]

That part - I would agree with you. FXPro cannot be a full ECN broker from what I have witnessed during late November / early December. I complained and I am sure many more would have done as well. Since December 18th it seems to have stopped completely. Still know I have got to look at leaving due to other tricks going on as well.

Haha and you're an expert scalper.

So you know my AUM - still not got a clue about yours ........ and with regards being full of ****e and a tit - please carry on - I can't help it if you are not very well endowed and need to use the chip on shoulder and that bad tongue of yours to make up for it .

You don't have any assets under management, nor have you ever revealed your total depth of capital, what are you talking about? You said you keep 50k odd in an account, that is not your total reliable capital available I assume...? To be fair, using a forum of newbies to worship at the alter of late call scalping to make you feel good during your empty days does not exactly make you look like the big man.

My expertise here is purely daily short term trading in the RETAIL forex market. I can just imagine you sifting through my other thread one day and finding a loss of 3 pips and completely trying to pull my credibility totally apart - etc - saying things like - you don't know what you are doing - you are a loser - you will never make money in the retail market - any one following you is crazy etc etc.

You pulled your own credibility apart I think.

You say it is impossible for any retail trader to average 30 -50% per month over say 2 years with capital over $25 k - but under $100k ???

Not impossible, but then nor is making a living on multi deck blackjack. Have I seen it done or agency traded for myself or seen agency traded for anyone who has, no. You've never proven you do it. Just prattle. What's your tax structure for all these earnings by the way?

You should be able to work this out and say yes or no within 10 minutes I reckon - OK

I could just make up an answer like you did and then perhaps I'd have loads of credibility, like you?

Look forward to your answer - but cut the abuse please - it shows inner weakness.

Source for this assertion? It shows I don't like you, nothing more. You are a tit. Please don't get your mates at the flying squad to slot me by the canal.

 

[random12345]

Yes I would say the "devil is in the detail" - - OK they have been re-branded to EY in 2013 but for my working life and even for the work they did on the Iron FX traders in 2012 - it was the name that had been around for 20+ yrs ie Ernst & Young.

Never said I cared about the name at all, you even missed the point of that line - I only slightly cared that they are an LLP, regulated by the Companies Act 2006 yes, but not a company in either colloquial of professional speech. A firm. You have claimed to have a lot of business experience at the top levels, remember? I only point these things out when they clash with your claims of greatness.

Similar with the old Inland Revenue - I was retired when they became the HMCE - after having 25 yrs of disagreements with them as the IR.

HMRC. HMCE were also dissolved in 2005 and became part of HMRC along with the IR. Since you claim to be active in making a lot of money from the markets then you simply must deal with HMRC often, payments on account, SA100s, notices to file returns etc etc like the rest of us here do. Even with an Agent on P7 of your SA100 they are still required to file copies with you, and you are required to retain records. This also doesn't change the fact you claimed to still be dealing with the IR in an earlier post because of a special "list" - yet you constantly claim I am lacking credibility.

Does this type of stuff really make you feel superior ?

No, I use it to point out that if you can't get the basics of day to day business right then should people believe your claims about trading.

Have you got "little man syndrome" or even worse you might be losing your hair ?

Haha! I'm shaking now you're getting mean.

You need to up your game here Random - and of course answer my two questions now

You mean like how you've answered mine... nah I think my game is pretty good.

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Short bald men are great lovers

grindr again?

 

[random12345]

grindr again?

We met up on Tuesday near the Hammersmith flyover and the cheap b'tard emptied the minibar of 5cl Jacks and did a runner while I was showering off the special smell.

 

[sonofcablemonster]

We met up on Tuesday near Hammersmith flyover and the cheap b'tard emptied the minibar of 5cl Jacks and did a runner while I was showering off the special smell.

Lol. I think I just sicked up a little in my mouth.

True story I was driving back from Brimsdown (dodgeville) last week stopped at the M11 services for a coffee. Went for a forest in the gents, sat there checking my phone and i looked down and to my disgust i saw someone had carved out a 2 inch diameter hole in the cubicle about 18 inches off the floor. I was out of the cubicle like a shot. As i looked back i noted the adjoining cubicle was engaged. Some dirty ***cer must have been in there waiting for someone to put there pecker through the hole. FFS what sort of wrongun goes to motorway services for action. Truly horrible.