FX Retail Traders - Beware of more rubbish from the "Industry"

[Forexmospherian]

I will kick off on this thread by saying - just be very very weary on anything you hear from the actual commercial world on Trading - especially on FX trading

The latest rubbish I hear from a few industry guys on retail trading - is that maybe only 2% really make it and therefore 98% of all retail traders either give up - fail - and so we should all believe them - not bother and give up.

What a laugh - from an Industry that does not even know how many retail traders there are around the world. Some surveys reckon on under half a million - others anything from 1 to 2 million over approx 200 countries - including countries were gambling is forbidden

The real facts that we do know - is that in the UK for FX trading to be allowed into the spread-betting category - over 70/ 75 % of all trader must lose on a fairly continual basis.

So lets maybe look at between 80 and 90% of traders failing - that still allow anything from 10 -20% of all traders being successful on a continual basis - either monthly or yearly and making money .

That ratio is not that bad - out of every 100 school boy footballers on the books of junior leagues - they reckon only 3 to 5 will end up in the premier league.

Similar - on new business start ups - the odds favour failure but obviously a lot more than 2% go on to be successful

So why is the industry ie the Banksters ( not so much the Brokers ) wanting to frighten retail traders off when only 13 -17 years ago they were actively welcoming the change bought about by the Internet - and saying FX day trading can suit everyone - housewives - teachers - builders - Professionals etc etc ??

Lets just pause and look at these figures in more detail

T2W report approx 328 K traders. Now get rid of the commercial bodies and the old past traders and the multi nics etc etc - and say if there are a few thousand active then even at just 2% - that would mean 50 - 100 members here are successful retail trader - if not full time - still making consistent monies

If there are only 500k retail traders around the world - I reckon there is at least 10% + successful - so what 50K + world wide and even on 2% its 10,000 retail successful traders.

But according to some "insiders" - even those retail traders who are successful - are just lucky

I notice there are lots of threads on the forum dealing with Brokers - featuring the good - the bad - and bust ones - loads on dodgy vendors and failed courses etc etc - but where are the ones on the real enemy - yes those nice Bankers.

Look forward to hearing all the "dirt" - yes the tricks - the stories and all the dodgy dealing etc etc

Regards


F

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

F,

I have no axe to grind here, but a couple of points. I'm not sure where the '2%' figure comes from but the French financial regulator completed a four-year study into retail trading a year or so ago and concluded that 90% lost. That seems consistent with other stuff I've seen, so let's say around 10% are consistent winners.

Given that 6% of global FX volumes are retail, I don't know what incentive there is for 'banksters' to be negative on the industry, retail helps liquidity and comms across the board.

Reading your posts, you seem to be in the top tier of the successful 10%. But in many of your posts you lambast newbies for their naievity, for not realising that serious effort needs to be put in to get into that 10%, and some may just not have the skills however many hours they put in. At the same time there is a whole industry of FX brokers and 'trainers' out there who seem dedicated to parting fools from their money. So if a few miserabilists on these boards try and point out that chances of success are quite low, that's just trying to redress the balance a little and try and stop a few roadcrashes along the way. Some of the people posting on T2W shouldn't have a credit card let alone a 100x leveraged FX account. Your posts don't seem inconsistent with that view.

So, in short, I'm not sure of the point you're making here.

A final nit-pick: premier league clubs run 25 man squads, so that's 500 players, of which I think 1/3rd are British. So about 165 players. So I think the odds of a schoolboy junior league player ending up in the premier league are lot worse than 3-5%. On that basis, they'd be better off learning to trade FX

 

[dealer911]

Agree with Jacko on this - retails traders are completely irrelevant to bank traders... they are totally insignificant. Totally bored with banker bashing myself.. I would say that around 95% of the front line traders I have worked with in banks were very decent,ethical and respectful of the markets they dealt in.This whole Russel Brand school of thought where anyone who works, or has worked in a bank is evil is not only counter-productive but totally false.

 

[Forexmospherian]

F,

I have no axe to grind here, but a couple of points. I'm not sure where the '2%' figure comes from but the French financial regulator completed a four-year study into retail trading a year or so ago and concluded that 90% lost. That seems consistent with other stuff I've seen, so let's say around 10% are consistent winners.

Given that 6% of global FX volumes are retail, I don't know what incentive there is for 'banksters' to be negative on the industry, retail helps liquidity and comms across the board.

Reading your posts, you seem to be in the top tier of the successful 10%. But in many of your posts you lambast newbies for their naievity, for not realising that serious effort needs to be put in to get into that 10%, and some may just not have the skills however many hours they put in. At the same time there is a whole industry of FX brokers and 'trainers' out there who seem dedicated to parting fools from their money. So if a few miserabilists on these boards try and point out that chances of success are quite low, that's just trying to redress the balance a little and try and stop a few roadcrashes along the way. Some of the people posting on T2W shouldn't have a credit card let alone a 100x leveraged FX account. Your posts don't seem inconsistent with that view.

So, in short, I'm not sure of the point you're making here.

A final nit-pick: premier league clubs run 25 man squads, so that's 500 players, of which I think 1/3rd are British. So about 165 players. So I think the odds of a schoolboy junior league player ending up in the premier league are lot worse than 3-5%. On that basis, they'd be better off learning to trade FX

Hi Jack

Thank you for your comments and you have raised some good points

I think we would both agree that there should be at least 10% of all retail traders who actually make it and become consistent winners .

That's important as in reality - in could be quite a large number on individual retail traders - ie anything from 50k to even 170k - so not really just a few.

I am very much on the side of the retail trader - not just because so many don't make it - but because really the rubbish and deceit which is fed to them by maybe the "spoilers" of the Industry - or even as you call them - the "miserabilists" ( great name) - and as we both know this forum seems to attract quite a few ;-).

I am pleased you agree that 2% winners and 98% failures is pure rubbish - it needs pointing out to an old member here - Random 12345 and a newer gentleman by the nic of Pat Riley.

By stating it - and then belittling newer traders as well as doing a brilliant "professional spoiler job " of winding them up is hardly positive for the forum and its members

I am very much a great believer in the 10k hrs rule - in fact for any real "skill " and reckon you need a good 4k hours of study and following of charts to even make the basic grade.

That works out for a part time newbie FX trader at say 15 hrs a week - what over 266 + weeks - so approx 5 yrs plus - maybe only 2 or 3 yrs via fast track with extra study and good mentors. Most newbies give it what 6 months to 2yrs and then give up - the ones who get to 3 yrs + either do get there - or just stay hoping to discover the Holy Grail.

During my approx 13 yrs - I have never heard once a commercial or Industry trader saying you need 3 or 5 yrs plus to get there and of course brokers try and make out even just a few months - or under a year.

That's a shame as it giving many retail trader false hope and they end up wasting their time and of course their money.

I have got quite a few "sticks" to beat the Banksters with and will be posting them over the next few days

Some retail guys even think - just follow the main Banks Trades - you cannot go wrong ........... little do they know

I think you will see more of what I mean as I make more comments

Finally - yes a 10 % success rate is good compared to making a killing becoming a professional Football player. Although saying that nowadays even just making it to league one or the championship and some of those guys are earning anything from £4k to £25k - per week - and they are not even at the top table

Good Trading to you and GL with the new thread

Regards


F

 

[Trader333]

...T2W report approx 328 K traders. Now get rid of the commercial bodies and the old past traders and the multi nics etc etc..

Hmm, the words of Father Dougal Maguire come to mind:

 

[Forexmospherian]

Agree with Jacko on this - retails traders are completely irrelevant to bank traders... they are totally insignificant. Totally bored with banker bashing myself.. I would say that around 95% of the front line traders I have worked with in banks were very decent,ethical and respectful of the markets they dealt in.This whole Russel Brand school of thought where anyone who works, or has worked in a bank is evil is not only counter-productive but totally false.

Hi dealer 911

You could very well be right - this forum maybe only attracts the 5% of the commercial traders who maybe have their own "agenda " - and as you say the other 95% are all very decent guys.

I agree it wrong to "tar" all with the same brush - for example after watching Sky news for this last year and keep seeing the US Police shoot / maim / injure so many suspects with out really the correct due diligence / care - you would be wrong to assume all the US Police are just pistol happy and shoot first and then ask questions.

But think about - the rank and file Bank / commercial guys might all be decent - but then you get the small percentage along with even the senior management - who have taken maybe multi millions of dollars off retail newbie traders - and calling them "suckers" along the way.

This forum loves to point out the dodgy vendors ripping traders off - and as well the dodgy brokers doing the same - ( and all very good stuff) - but the manipulation and trickery off certain organisations - such a Goldman Sachs etc etc seem to be over looked.

I think it therefore only fair to "Bash a Banker" - there are too many rogue ones running around "scot free" whilst dodgy Double Glazing salesman and East End car dealer "clocking " second hand cars end up in the Nick - for a few years

Only my view - nothing personal against the decent guys

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hmm, in the words of Father Dougal Maguire:

Sorry ;-)

I only calculated about 100 in the multi nics - not 1000's - and yes "Davies" is still the nic of my bother in law

 

[Forexmospherian]

Breaking News on 3 00 pm news

Just heard on Sky news - the second stage of regulators fines on Dodgy Banks on "rigging" Currency exchange markets is now making the total fines close to 6 Billion - ( 6 billion and that's just the fines)

Decent guys ay ?

 

[tar]

Sorry ;-)

I only calculated about 100 in the multi nics - not 1000's - and yes "Davies" is still the nic of my bother in law

Yeah sure !

 

[tar]

There is no such thing as retail forex , you are just taking punts against your broker/mm/lp via mt4 or whatever . Its not a market

 

[Forexmospherian]

There is no such thing as retail forex , you are just taking punts against your broker/mm/lp via mt4 or whatever . Its not a market

I suppose it's how you define it

I define Banks and commercial organisations as bodies who employ traders to trade for them - and these traders are not using their own money - but Capital supplied and they make up the majority of the trading market.

Traders who are individuals - using their own Capital and in charge of their own trades and take the gains and losses themselves - I would call retail traders

As Jack said they maybe make up less then 6 /7% of the total market - although even that size can be as big as many Large Funds - and even larger than Goldmans on one list I saw

I am sure there would be a better definition - so will wait to be informed of it

Regards#

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Going to supply some trade forecast information provided by many Banks on their trading plans from after January 2015 for every quarter.

Many newbie FX traders would follow these -purely on the basis that Banks should know what they are doing and so if they are selling the EU under 1 0700 for 1 0300 or even 1 0000 - then we should follow

Got to find them first - but hopefully later on or by tomorrow - they will be worth comparing to prices of today

 

[Forexmospherian]

A typical Bankster trick to be aware of - March 2015

Deutsche Bank - some say the largest FX player - with over 18 % of the market - sends out this article in early March regarding the Euro.

Note the date March 10th 2015

Price at that time was under 1 0700 and within the next few days - price of the EU then fell below 0500

You can imagine the newbie FX traders who still believe Banks are honest and have integrity etc etc - thinking - OK - sell the EU - it could drop another 700 + pips over the next few months - and now we are under 1 1000 - we will stay like this through the year etc etc

However if you check you charts - since mid March - the EU as rallied and nearly risen approx 1000 pips - yes risen 1000 pips.

How many longer term traders would have a 1200 + pip stop - but many would have a few hundred - even 300 + pip stop - still expecting a RR over 2 + within the next 8 -9 months

The Deutsche Bank are not the only ones who love posting "misleading info" - loads of them do it.

I just hope you were not a FX trader who thought - we will not be going back up over 1 1000 or even 1 1400 + this year

More stuff to follow on why you should be careful with regards to everything a Bank tells you

 

[tar]

So what ? you cant judge a trader from a single trade , everyone make losses , even a 1 year track record isn't enough ...