Forex Manipulation - Can it help your Trading

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
I heard on Sky News this lunchtime that Barclays Bank and had to put on one side half a billion dollars - and UBS - approx 1 2 billion - to cover the fines they will receive after being found guilty of manipulation of the currency markets.

Most experienced retail FX Traders have known this as been going on for years - but more so in the last 10 years with the massive changes in the market place and the dependence on super computers etc etc.

The FX market as trebled in size since I started approx 13 yrs ago with many saying it it's now over a 5 trillion a day - and still growing

With more world wide trading and travelling etc - the world as shrunk and so the Banks play a very important part in assisting all types of importers and exporters etc etc

Trouble is they Cheat - and it should be recognised they really they have credibility of dodgy second hand car dealers or even vendors selling trading "holy grails"

To me - there is nothing wrong if you are a multi billionaire and you want to buy the Euro - whilst everyone else and their dogs are selling it

But if you collaborate with other multi billionaires ( or banks in this case) and control well over 70% of the market - you can really do what you like - and make as much money as you want - simply by setting the market with a false sentiment - and then taking the opposite positions.

I have had many discussions or disagreements with market gurus and professionals over the last 5 years ( couple of Professors and even a Doctor of Science ) who say its impossible to rig the markets etc - they are too big - etc etc.

But its not - and it happens all the while.

However - us Retail FX traders should use this knowledge that it goes on - ( there are many many different ways from dark pools to giving out loads of false information) to assist our own trading - embrace it and make money from it.

For me - dodgy Bankers come above dodgy Brokers and dodgy FX vendors on my list of who I would like to tie their shoelaces together when they are not looking.

But dodgy Bankers have really helped me probably make a few extra hundred thousands over the last 7 years - but I am still down after being done in 2009 with the collapse of Lehman Bros.

False sentiment as an indicator is a far better indicator than any Gann / Elliot Wave / Fib / theory - its just that not many retail traders really use it to their advantage.

Its not just the over bough or oversold scenarios - it involves times of the day and even time of the month etc etc

I would love to know if there are any books on the subject - ones that go into real detail though - not just scratching the surface

Surely some sacked Goldman Sachs trader can reveal more from the Outer Hebrides or a local McDonalds before he's poison darted - lol

Look forward to hearing you methods of judging false sentiment or gameplay on the Dom etc etc and false returns for the COT reports - and more.......


Regards


F
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Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
I think you’re trading spot forex so your only exposure to these shenanigans would have been up to and around the ‘fix’ each day, probably 20 seconds each side of the 60 second sampling period.

The people who were genuinely disadvantaged were the banks’ customers whose orders they front ran and commercial concerns using forex as part of their normal hedging requirements.

Given that an estimated 85% of short-term spot forex activity is speculative rather than commercial you’ll probably find you were no more disadvantaged than at any other time of day.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
I think you’re trading spot forex so your only exposure to these shenanigans would have been up to and around the ‘fix’ each day, probably 20 seconds each side of the 60 second sampling period.

The people who were genuinely disadvantaged were the banks’ customers whose orders they front ran and commercial concerns using forex as part of their normal hedging requirements.

Given that an estimated 85% of short-term spot forex activity is speculative rather than commercial you’ll probably find you were no more disadvantaged than at any other time of day.

I am sure the so called "fix" is a very small part of a lot larger game that as been taking place - still undiscovered by the regulators - or maybe they still do not have enough proof ??
 

bredin

Member
80 20
I think you’re trading spot forex so your only exposure to these shenanigans would have been up to and around the ‘fix’ each day, probably 20 seconds each side of the 60 second sampling period.

The people who were genuinely disadvantaged were the banks’ customers whose orders they front ran and commercial concerns using forex as part of their normal hedging requirements.

Given that an estimated 85% of short-term spot forex activity is speculative rather than commercial you’ll probably find you were no more disadvantaged than at any other time of day.
The fix is a small part, there is also the option expiry along with a number of other 'regular' manipulations.

Aside from those its hard to pick a time when the FX market is not being manipulated... perhaps "the gap" between the NY close and the Tokyo open ;)

The funny thing is those manipulations dont come 'out of the blue' or at weird places on the charts. Theyre observable weeks or months ahead of time.

For a serious look check out UJ at the time of the BoJ announcement of unlimited QE in 2013



most notable is the section marked 5 and the couple of days price spend in demand before the announcement showing that the news was probably known among "the big players" at least a month in advance and the market conditions were prepared in advance.

For those paying attention price returned to the announcment price (or at least the demand level) 2 months later (scaring the **** out of anyone who took the BoJ's annoucment at face value and found themselves in a losing long position on UJ), and price has only held above the rush high of then after September of this year- about 18 months later!

B.
 

montmorencyt2w

Senior member
2,620 294
Slightly (but only slightly) off-topic, but for an entertaining read on the BoJ, I'd recommend Professor Richard Werner's "Princes of the Yen".

Also "The New Paradigm in Macroeconomics: Solving the Riddle of Japanese Macroeconomic Performance" (hint: there is no riddle: it's as clear as day when you realise what they were up to).

It won't help you trade, but it's an eye-opener to see how, not just the BoJ, but basically all central banks operate to their own agenda, and not usually in the interests of the wider, real economy. Until they are brought under genuinely democratic control (another major problem in itself), we'll never get away from the boom and bust cycles. The other problem is that our politicians are either too naive, incompetent or corrupt to understand what is going on and deal with it.
 

gerryg

Established member
900 6
So, Markets are rigged right? Actually, this fact gives me the same advantage as knowing that markets are not rigged :D. A hoax in the scale of whole Forex Market doesn't affect me at all, as well as other regular jacks. Why markets can be regulated ONLY by government outfits or exchanges? Don't you think that those fed. reserve sods who set interest rates and other macroeconomic stuff can't benefit from it? They not only can but definitely will avail of that.

Problems arise only from lack information. This outcry on the matters of market leg-pulls is a simply a feeble moan that you are out of that party, out of that Elite who rules. :confused:

Be smart and cute enough to poke in somewhere that large-scale hoax. Make acquintances, bribe, research or buy information if you want to make your first million. This all sounds very odd comparing to talks about forum indies and grabbing news from bloomberg, eh..?

But unfortunately most of us won't even make a step for it. Because it's beyond our general vision of trading. Sad, but true...
 

zozo

Junior member
33 3
How can we find out what time the day the fix is at 4pm?

Someone explain to me when are the banks buying/selling, around which time before 4pm fix and then going the other way? I would like to spot it and get on the back of it. :)
 

hatemypips

Established member
538 39
How can we find out what time the day the fix is at 4pm?

Someone explain to me when are the banks buying/selling, around which time before 4pm fix and then going the other way? I would like to spot it and get on the back of it. :)
You mean fixing profit from speculation (e.g. make reverse orders for closing position). Not sure they have fixed time for that..depends on the situation I think
 

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