Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Well the Dow managed a close above 10700. I am just wondering if today we might see 10800?
The Dow was dragged back yesterday by MO and on wednesday GM and AMEX held it back. The Nasdaq hit multi year highs and the S&P has broken through 1240 so I wonder if today we might see the Dow take the initiative.

It seems to me that there are quite a few positive factors:

Nymex at $56.36
$TNX yield at 4.46%
HP results well received
CPI and PPI showed inflation well contained
Dow hasn't traded below 10650 this week
Thanksgiving next Thursday (OK maybe that is a bit desperate)
 
leovirgo said:
I am sure it will try to touch 10740/30 again. But I am not so sure about the future beyond that :cool:
Click to expand...

It exceeds my expectation. Shot up to 10780+. Sometimes being a bull can be lonely. :cheesy:
 
Dow Direction

dc2000 said:
Lonely and loaded??

Having said that Im short today
Click to expand...


Hi DC, I think you may be going in the correct direction v v v v as I feel the Dow is at a crossroads. Having only managed to cross and hold the 10,719 by one point yesterday
( 10,720 ) close, this may be the top for now.
I'm waiting to see todays close price, so I am out of the market at present .
Best Regards :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 
twiggytwo said:
Hi DC, I think you may be going in the correct direction v v v v as I feel the Dow is at a crossroads. Having only managed to cross and hold the 10,719 by one point yesterday
( 10,720 ) close, this may be the top for now.
I'm waiting to see todays close price, so I am out of the market at present .
Best Regards :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Wish I had been......was short looking for a pull back - got stopped
Went long to catch the rally thinking this would be a breakout - got stopped

:-((((((
 
Wish I had been......was short looking for a pull back - got stopped
Went long to catch the rally thinking this would be a breakout - got stopped

:-((((((
Click to expand...

Don't kick yourself too much, you'll be ok. It happens to all of us...... :devilish:
 
It is difficult. I'm long at the moment with stops at 10680 and 10650. I do think being 5 hours ahead of the States that we do tend to be a little bit impatient in wanting to get involved too early on. The futures were up at 10775 at the open (which I sold into) and if you look at the high on the actual Dow it is 10796 which makes many people feel that they may miss something.

Energy sector is a bit of a drag at the moment. Apart from that can't see much.

But all you can do is set your stall out and do what you plan to do. Try to take the emotion and ego out of trading. As someone told me once - there's never a good sell.
 
DIS down over 3% but not a big weight
'Walt Disney, which on Thursday reported a 27 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit, fell 3.6 percent to $25.05.
 
Quote:
Wish I had been......was short looking for a pull back - got stopped
Went long to catch the rally thinking this would be a breakout - got stopped

:-((((((


Don't kick yourself too much, you'll be ok. It happens to all of us......
Click to expand...

Every single one of us at some time
 
16 gainers & 14 decliners at this point. Disney (down 3.4%) plus Boeing, Altria, Alcoa, AIG, Caterpillar and J& J are keeping the Dow down today. GM (up 4.3%) plus GE, IBM. 3M, Merck and SBC trying to push it up.

Resistance at 10780 was always going to be a tough nut to crack - it tried on the open and fell back. Will it try again after lunch or have we seen the highs prior to Christmas !
 
I cant see a hit of the 10570 target tonight so stop now at +8 points and will let it run to close
 
That huge spike on the Dow in the first 5 minutes, looked suspiciously like a algorithmic programme trade. The futures were trading 20 points below the market at that point - which is rare (Dow futures are trading 20 points above the market)
 
DOW trend

It's been in an upward channel since the beginning of this month. :rolleyes:
 

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The Dow continues the up trend: but it has to said it seems highly likely that it is topping out.

The question is where will it top?

Well I would say its a matter of a few weeks if not days.

I don’t know about intra day touches to 11,000 but we won't see a daily close above it in my opinion. The markets: yes you can argue that we're at the highs of the year.

Well excellent but I think you can't disagree that we have been in a tight range whipsaw for 2 years. The last time we saw similar stuff was in 2000 but the range was wider........a decline soon followed and this time it won't be any different. That is not the sole reason for the prospective decline though. We've had a good run up but it's tired and just about to expire.....

I know I stated that the Euro and Pound was a buy but the Euro hasn't really moved too far from their but the Pound has declined some more.

A rock solid bottom at 171 by the looks of it......and I can't see us going near 170 let alone snapping it. 17130 is the price at the moment and it seems as if the press are now talking to much about the rise in the dollar.......its over for the moment......

Should see around 700 points upside for this one.

FTSE100 has clear problems with 5500 and could well be the end of its run.

Snapshot of my views on the markets:

DowJones and co including FTSE100: Upside near to completion and downside to follow.

GBP and EUR: After declining to lows it seems as if a bottom is being made and now some upside to follow with 12240 to be the target for the EUR and 178 for the pound

Oil: The downside seems to be over. Not much left but it seems as if it'll be range trading and not much action this year.

US treasury notes: Mega Buy

Gold: 500 will be tricky.

Good luck all
 
Certainly the Dow has had a hell of a run up this month (about 600 points) but still is shy of it's year high. Personally, I find calling tops and bottoms of markets pretty much impossible. That said, one thing does occur to me. Most hedge funds had a very nasty October and as such would not have missed the chance to recoup their losses this month by piling in on the long side of the market. As such, as we near the end of the month, I think it is likely we could see some considerable "window dressing" next week irrespective of what black friday brings. I will be looking at getting short in anticipation of some of these guys trying to lock in some gains for the year. It is fairly well known that selling the market on the last day of the month and buying back at the end of the session can be quite a profitable strategy. We will see if it prove profitable this month
 
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