Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

I wonder where yesterday's bulls are now.....................................
Market sentiment is a big factor any one disagreeeeeee
 
kriesau said:
I believe that we could be due some downside prior to the FOMC meeting next week since 10700 has remained firmly intact as the resistance ceiling for 4 months now and unless this is convincingly breached the market will not move higher. A rate hike or pause may be the trigger for the next directional move. I went long twice on the Dow at Friday lunchtime when it finally broke through resistance at 10600. I closed one position at 10645 and am still holding the other. I moved my stop up to 10590 after last nights close in order to see if it can hold above 10600 on Monday but if it stops me out there I'll go short again.

Still bearish over the longer term trend !
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Fridays 2nd long stopped out and Short triggered at 10590. Looks like a down day today but it's probably unlikely to breach secondary support at 10540 today.

Oil up $2.35 since the weekend. 25 Dec v 5 Risers today.

FOMC announcement will be key tomorrow. Assuming that a further 25 basis point increase is implemented again any deletion of the 'measured pace' cliche or hint of a possible moratorium in rate hikes next month could see a rally back up to test that strong ceiling at 10700.
 
kriesau said:
Fridays 2nd long stopped out and Short triggered at 10590. Looks like a down day today but it's probably unlikely to breach secondary support at 10540 today.

Oil up $2.35 since the weekend. 25 Dec v 5 Risers today.

FOMC announcement will be key tomorrow. Assuming that a further 25 basis point increase is implemented again any deletion of the 'measured pace' cliche or hint of a possible moratorium in rate hikes next month could see a rally back up to test that strong ceiling at 10700.
Click to expand...


It seems to me that there is just no consensus of opinion among the usual market rentagobs.

Last week we see the market rallying on the chance that FOMC might leave rates unchanged. Today, I listened to some character saying he thought the FOMC would raise rates 25bp and the market would rally because it was a sign that the Fed sees strength in the economy. You wonder why people bother listening to them

None of them seem to look at the POG and wonder if there might be a potential inflation issue.

For what its worth I think the interest rate decision is mere noise. I think Q3 results, oil and consumer sentiment is going to drive this market.
 
Chevron Corp. has started to evacuate U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore personnel before Tropical Storm Rita hits, the company said Monday



Chevron
 
Every TRADER interviewed on BB (IMO the only people to listen to as regards day trading) has said
RITA RITA RITA
The market may have a short memory but it can just about recall Katrina
Its the FEAR factor untill it makes landfall no one knows what it will do and fear the worse
 
Now testing secondary support around 10540.

If it can convincingly break through this level it should head down to 10500, otherwise we could see a late rally back up towards 10600.
 
Caterpillar Machinery, Engine Sales Up In Aug.

19/09 20:42

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Caterpillar Inc.'s (CAT) worldwide machinery sales rose 19% and its engine sales rose 23% in August, the company said Monday, pointing to continuing demand in the energy, mining and construction industries.

The Peoria, Ill.-based machinery maker said that in the three months ended in August, its North America machine sales rose 15%, compared with the same period in 2004, while sales increased 47%, 11% and 46% for the Asia-Pacific; Europe, Africa and Middle East; and Latin America regions, respectively.

Caterpillar engine sales climbed 18% for truck and bus, 27% for marine, 16% in petroleum and 40% in electric-power units.

"Caterpillar has yet to see any slowdown in industry conditions, likely benefiting from its favorable exposure to the energy, mining and nonresidential areas," said J.P. Morgan analyst Gary McManus, who maintained a neutral rating on the shares.

The North America sales were level with July, while foreign sales dipped to 25% overall from 30% overall in July.

"In total, the August sales and inventory statistics suggested higher sales growth than we had previously been modeling," wrote Prudential analysts, who nudged Caterpillar's estimated earnings higher by 9 cents to $1.02 a share.
 
kriesau said:
Looks like a late rally is starting - closed out short at 10544 for 46pts.
Click to expand...
I totally Agree with you
Fomc and you seem to be forgetting opec is out tommorow.....any reason why

The opec statement should be no different but will have an impact on the dow
Also as you said Mr Greenspan will leave the comments of measured pace in is suggested by quite a few analysts.........

My thoughts are if The opec leave the bpm to below 400,000 and no other comments and if fomc minutes come in to include the measured pace then we are looking at some heavy selling right in time for october and dow could potentially reach the 9950-10100 level by mid october before picking up again...
Happy trading guys
 
Last edited:
Bio diesel

Joules MM1 said:
(c) NBR.com

9/19/05: Farmers Get Pumped Over Biodiesel

SUSIE GHARIB:For some American farmers, there could be a silver lining in the recent rise in fuel prices. Sales of biodiesel, a fuel made from vegetable oil, have been taking off in recent weeks. As Diane Eastabrook reports, tax incentives and wider availability could make biodiesel a very popular fuel.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If you thought soybeans were only good for making tofu and soy milk, think again. Oil from the crop is also used to make a clean-burning fuel called biodiesel. Chicago-based Bell Fuels began distributing the product as a diesel blend four years ago, but didn`t expect it to ever take off.

ROBERT TROCH, CEO, BELL FUELS: I`ve been 50 years in this business, and I said I never heard anything as crazy as that. And I was wrong.

EASTABROOK: Troch says today biodiesel comprises what he calls a significant percentage of his business. Commonwealth Edison, a division of Exelon corporation, is one of Bell fuel`s largest customers. It uses a biodiesel blend in more than 2,000 of its utility trucks.

WILLIAM PETTIT, DIRECTOR, EXELON FLEET SERVICES: We`re very pleased with bio. In terms of longevity, in terms of performance, it does have a higher (INAUDIBLE) rating. We`ve been very pleased overall.

EASTABROOK: Biodiesel is created through a chemical process that separates glycerin from animal fats or vegetable oil. The technology is very similar to the one used to make soaps and detergents. That makes biodiesel production an ideal business for Stepan Company, which also makes also chemicals that go into shampoos and fabric softeners. Logistics also makes biodiesel a good business for Stepan.

JOHN VENEGONI, V.P., STEPAN COMPANY: So t fact that we have a plant, our largest plant located in the state of Illinois, makes it an ideal fit to support the Illinois farmer, as well as the fuels distribution throughout Illinois.

EASTABROOK: Currently about three dozen U.S. companies produce about 300 million gallons of biodiesel a year. But experts think production could double in a few years as bigger companies like Archer Daniels Midland get into the business. Some producers say biodiesel`s biggest hurdle to widespread use is consumer acceptance. But they are encouraged by the popularity of ethanol, a corn-based fuel.

VENEGONI: When ethanol first started, people were a little reluctant to put it in their tank. But once they did, once they got comfortable with it, then they felt good about buying the product.

EASTABROOK: Experts also think new Federal and state tax incentives will increase demand for biodiesel and help make it a smart alternative fuel for the future. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.

hehe
Click to expand...

At the last general election I wrote 3 identical letters to the 3 party chiefs commending bio-diesel to save the planet's eco-system etc. I got one liner brush-offs from all 3 !!
That shows how in touch our dear politicians are !!
 
Where is the dow heading today....

I have posted a couple of comments last night but seems that everyone has diverted from the FOMC speech......
Any predictions for dow today.... ;)
 
rav700 said:
I have posted a couple of comments last night but seems that everyone has diverted from the FOMC speech......
Any predictions for dow today.... ;)
Click to expand...
Yesterdays price action moved it back down into the 10500 - 10600 range, which now appears to be the intraday support and resistance levels. The late rally in the Dow took it back up to nearly 10560 at the close. It needs to break 10610 for an upside move and 10500 for a downside. Cash Futures touched 10594 earlier this morning but have slipped back a bit to 10586 since - up 28pts on yesterdays close.

Oil has slipped back from $67.40 to $66.50 this morning. Progress of Hurricane Rita seems a bit uncertain and then we have the FOMC rate decision at around 17.00. Difficult day to project.

If it breaks 10610 then a long should be worth a shot or alternatively a short if it breaches support at 10500. However one will still need to keep a wary eye on market reaction to the FOMC announcement this evening.
 
Hey guys
Being a complete wally please would someone explain to me
1 how to start new thread
2 why if i go into chatroom and type I get no reply?? Is it an audio thingee
3 how do I turn the B??????Y E mail sender whatsit off
Cheers in anticipation of one of you taking pity on me and putting me out of my misery
 
mickandpete said:
3 how do I turn the B??????Y E mail sender whatsit off
Click to expand...


Click on the Community menu at the top of the page

Click My User Options

Under messaging and notification there is a drop down box - select no email notification.

Save your settings at the bottom of the page.

Regards
 
I always avoid trading the FOMC announcement. There is often a compulsion for the intraday or even momentum trader to trade every day. The problem with the FOMC decision, is that the market reacts firstly the the initial decision, then secondly to the wording, then thirdly decides it's intial reaction was wrong and it goes in the opposite direction. It is quite possible to get lucky, but, if you are on the wrong side of the market, a 70 point move against you is nothing.

For that reason, I avoid trading within a 45 min period of the decision, in order to let the dust settle.

What makes today particularly tricky, is that the market does not have consensus as to what is likely to happen or even if a rate rise (or fall) is a positive thing or a negative thing. Add to that a very volatile oil market and uncertainty concerning Rita (Stan, Vince and Wilma).

My guess is the market will end up somewhere between 10520 - 10650. Tomorrow is another day.
 
mickandpete said:
1 how to start new thread
Click to expand...

If you want to start a new thread, I wouldn't start from here :cheesy:

You need to be one level up.

Look at the thread title at the top of the page, looks something like this....

Trade2Win Boards > The Markets > Indices > US Indices > Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

The US Indices link displays all threads under that banner. At the top of that page is a button to create a new thread. Your thread will be under the banner of Trade2Win Boards > The Markets > Indices > US Indices.

For each new thread, first choose the directory you want it displayed in.
 
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