roguetrader
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Hehe, wouldn't bet on that just yet, but it certainly gives an ugly look to the daily charts. INDU may find support here at the 200 sma.Racer said:They finally seen sense at last?
leovirgo
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Oil prices rose by nearly $2 a barrel Wednesday, as traders reacted to a drop in U.S. crude inventories and signs that production along the Gulf Coast would be slow to rebound from damage caused by Hurricane Katrina. (source: latimes.com business)
Another down day for DOW? At the moment futures are up by 20 pts.
Another down day for DOW? At the moment futures are up by 20 pts.
roguetrader
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Indeed, a few economic numbers out pre-market may help set a tone for the day. Also of interest will be how the major indices react to potential support of MA'sJoules MM1 said:
INDU having broken below its 50 sma sits just 3 pts above it's 200 sma at 10541, SPX showing the most relative strength of the majors sits just 2pts above it's 50 sma, and COMPQ has also already fallen below the 50 and now only 1pt above the 20 sma at 2148.
With quad witching this week and the volatility that often brings we may just chop into the weekend, setting up an interesting week to come.
macbonzo
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Keep your eyes on the weekly jobless figure at 1.30. This is the first post Katrina figure. From what I have been reading, the figure could be double the expected 350K. Normally you can disregard this figure, but it could provide a very quick trading opportunity.
Racer
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CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Delta Air Lines Corp. (DAL) on Wednesday filed for bankruptcy Wednesday, the third of the seven major U.S. airlines to seek protection in Chapter 11.
Delta, the nation's third-largest commercial airline, joins UAL Corp. (UALAQ), parent of United Airlines, and US Airways Group Inc. (UAIRQ) in Chapter 11 reorganization.
Burdened with heavy debt and pension costs, Delta has said in recent weeks it needed to cut costs quickly, or it would consider a bankruptcy filing before mid-October, when bankruptcy laws change.
But, following Hurricane Katrina, the sharp increase in the price of jet fuel pushed Delta's board of directors to decide on a bankruptcy filing Wednesday.
Delta, the nation's third-largest commercial airline, joins UAL Corp. (UALAQ), parent of United Airlines, and US Airways Group Inc. (UAIRQ) in Chapter 11 reorganization.
Burdened with heavy debt and pension costs, Delta has said in recent weeks it needed to cut costs quickly, or it would consider a bankruptcy filing before mid-October, when bankruptcy laws change.
But, following Hurricane Katrina, the sharp increase in the price of jet fuel pushed Delta's board of directors to decide on a bankruptcy filing Wednesday.
macbonzo
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Racer said:
Some character from Goldman Sachs seems to think that our estimates are way too low. I guess the Katrina affected states are very poor and consequently the people who cannot work will register very quickly. I read it on Cramer's site "the street"
New York Fed are hosting a meeting today to discuss the Credit Derivatives markets with some of the biggest banks in the US.
In May, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called back-office issues in credit derivatives a "significant problem."
Fifteen regulators and 14 banks are slated to meet on Thursday at the Fed's office in lower Manhattan to discuss credit derivatives, particularly with regard to back-office practices which regulators fear could leave markets vulnerable.
New York Fed President Timothy Geithner has long warned that innovations in structured products such as credit derivatives have moved ahead of the infrastructure to handle them, a problem which poses risks not only to the financial institutions which use them but to the financial system as a whole
In May, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called back-office issues in credit derivatives a "significant problem."
Fifteen regulators and 14 banks are slated to meet on Thursday at the Fed's office in lower Manhattan to discuss credit derivatives, particularly with regard to back-office practices which regulators fear could leave markets vulnerable.
New York Fed President Timothy Geithner has long warned that innovations in structured products such as credit derivatives have moved ahead of the infrastructure to handle them, a problem which poses risks not only to the financial institutions which use them but to the financial system as a whole
spread master
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thanks for responses. You should go and look at www.analyst-online.com (free trial)its called it right all week!! I use 2clickinvestor which is not so good for indices, really vague no levels just colour indicators. Are there any plug in systems for indices that actually work or is it lah, lah land.
Broker still bullish on the Dow http://www.brewindolphin.co.uk/ClientNet/MarketStrategy/2005/09-09-2005.pdf
Racer
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kriesau said:
Looking at that, I would add a few comments..
He says earnings consistently surprised on the upside, well if you look at the last two lots of estimates that was, ahem well, they lowered the estimates a lot, so the lowering earnings beat them, oh brilliant, earnings are falling, but they beat the estimates so that's alright then.
The p/e even showing a graph that looks like the p/e is dropping, Oil has not been factored into the future earnings, they haven't been able to pass on the costs and oil has gone up a lot more since past earnings.
That's a bit like saying inflation isn't going up cos the core isn't if you take out oil.. ahem, duh, you need oil.... it is a cost, duh....
Shall I go to my local petrol station and tell them I don't have to pay for it cos it doesn't count?
Also, a p/e of around 15 is not historically cheap by any means, oh of course you can distort this a lot if you add the dot bubble p/e into the average calculation! If earnings are decelerating then they ought to be cheaper than this.
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Racer
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Rebuilding the Gulf, but at what cost?
Economists say Bush's reconstruction plan is necessary; some wonder if the government can afford it.
Full story here
Economists say Bush's reconstruction plan is necessary; some wonder if the government can afford it.
Full story here
roguetrader
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kriesau said:
More on housing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E99-4189-BCF7-63F72FB05273}&garden=&minisite=
roguetrader
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OPEC to meet on Monday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...852-4B2B-A9B0-7322509F1303}&siteid=mktw&dist=
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...852-4B2B-A9B0-7322509F1303}&siteid=mktw&dist=
Interesting Quote from Dr Gary Hirst, author of the section on Global Macro Funds in the prestigious book "Hedge Funds: Dstinctive Strategies and Techniques"
"I was very, very skeptical that Technical Analysis had any value so I used computers to check it out and what I learned was that there was, in fact, no useful reality there.
Statistically and mathmatically all these tools - Stochastics, RSI, Chart Patterns, Elliott Wave and so on just don't work. If you code any of these rigorously into a computer and back test them they produce no statistical basis for making money, they're just wishful thinking.
But I did find one thing that worked. In fact just about all technical analysis can be reduced to one thing, though most people don't realize it - the distribution of returns are not normal, they are skewed and have "fat tails". In other words markets do produce profitable trends.
Sure I found things that worked over the short term, systems that may work for 5 or 10 years and then fail miserably. Everything that you made you gave back. Over the long term trends is where the money is"
"I was very, very skeptical that Technical Analysis had any value so I used computers to check it out and what I learned was that there was, in fact, no useful reality there.
Statistically and mathmatically all these tools - Stochastics, RSI, Chart Patterns, Elliott Wave and so on just don't work. If you code any of these rigorously into a computer and back test them they produce no statistical basis for making money, they're just wishful thinking.
But I did find one thing that worked. In fact just about all technical analysis can be reduced to one thing, though most people don't realize it - the distribution of returns are not normal, they are skewed and have "fat tails". In other words markets do produce profitable trends.
Sure I found things that worked over the short term, systems that may work for 5 or 10 years and then fail miserably. Everything that you made you gave back. Over the long term trends is where the money is"
