Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[barjon]

Well I've cleaned it up now.

Tony - you're probably right, particularly as the thread's so long. If anyone wants to start off a new thread on the topic then I'll close this one. Otherwise I hope that this one can continue squarely on topic.

Roguetrader - you're right as well!! Any vehicle is likely to be used to carry on the bickering.

I do believe that the culprit participants do have value to add to these boards and I hope they will all concentrate on doing that rather than instigating, or getting drawn into, personal duels.

jon

 

[User]

Your prerogative of course, , but the problem has nothing to do with the thread, if you read the posts, it exists between the individuals involved, and as such requires no particular subject in which to take residence. I suspect if you adopt that approach you should be prepared to close a lot of threads in the future. Treat the cause not the symptoms.

Calls for closing the thread are absolutely ludicrous. Informative information has been shared on this thread and members have benefited. Why should the rest suffer due to the idiotic behaviour of a few...

Barjon thanks for cleaning the thread up but its a shame that we needed moderation for a few of the kids who got a little out of control...

However

Then, if it continues, I will close the thread, so be warned.

Such action is not required and nor should you be warning the thread as a whole.......(a little disappointed with that quote)

Why not warn the culprits or better still why not close their profiles down....

Lets hope we can put this saga behind us and start of the next trading week in decent fashion.

 

[gmca686]

Thanks Barjon

Can I pose a question for discussion?

Surely the title of the thread and many of the posts are misleading, because they invite us to think where the market is going to go?
I have read on many occasions the comment "I think the market will do x y z." The market doesn't care what we think, and personally if I find myself thinking what the market might do I give myself a sharp slap on the wrist. This has come about by the aftermath of several painful lessons when the stupid market behaved incorrectly after I thought it would go in a particular direction.

Surely our time would be better placed analysing along the following lines.
If the market does "A", I will do "X"
If the market does "B", I will do "Y"
If the market does "C", I will do "Z"
etc, etc

We need to establish what the market triggers ABC are,
and sort out our personal trading plans in XYZ.
I think this approach could provide for a more beneficial thread.

Now, am I missing something? do contributors feel that this is what the thread does, or do you agree with me that there is too much "I think"
regards, G McA

 

[User]

gmca686 I think the thread is clear enough in its information that is provided by members that give up their time to share with others something they believe that could of use to others.

If the market does "A", I will do "X"
If the market does "B", I will do "Y"
If the market does "C", I will do "Z"

You've lost me on that one.....can't see your point.

Let me just sum it up by saying, we try our best to follow the market moves....

 

[Racer]

I have read on many occasions the comment "I think the market will do x y z." The market doesn't care what we think, and personally if I find myself thinking what the market might do I give myself a sharp slap on the wrist. This has come about by the aftermath of several painful lessons when the stupid market behaved incorrectly after I thought it would go in a particular direction.

Surely our time would be better placed analysing along the following lines.
If the market does "A", I will do "X"
If the market does "B", I will do "Y"
If the market does "C", I will do "Z"
etc, etc

We need to establish what the market triggers ABC are,

If you could analyse the market so easily then it would be completely predictable! Like charts, they work sometimes.
A bit like the weather, they can predict what is going to happen with lots of supercomputes but doesn't mean that it will actually happen the way they say.
Just got to be prepared when it goes wrong really.

 

[User]

This thread has been started: The Dow - May 23-27 2005.

But why? I feel the thread named above is directed more towards intraday players. Short, medium and longer term traders would not really have much correspondence as the thread titles itself on a weekly basis.

 

[barjon]

Calls for closing the thread are absolutely ludicrous. Informative information has been shared on this thread and members have benefited. Why should the rest suffer due to the idiotic behaviour of a few...

.

User,

Closing the thread merely means that it will accept no new posts - it is not deleted and all the informative information remains intact. My reasons for thinking of closure were twofold. Firstly, it had degenerated into personal slanging matches and there were very few post relating to the topic recently; secondly it has become very long.

Tony (the Bramble) has opened a new thread - the DOW 23-27 May - and it may be that you would want to use that. If not this thread remains open.

jon

 

[kriesau]

User,

Closing the thread merely means that it will accept no new posts - it is not deleted and all the informative information remains intact. My reasons for thinking of closure were twofold. Firstly, it had degenerated into personal slanging matches and there were very few post relating to the topic recently; secondly it has become very long.

Tony (the Bramble) has opened a new thread - the DOW 23-27 May - and it may be that you would want to use that. If not this thread remains open.

jon

I have to agree with User - it would be a shame to terminate the thread. It's a dynamic forum and consequently it's archival value would be minimal.

There are many good participants here and the general tenor of posts has been both good and informative. I am quite prepared to refrain from any further retalitory posts but I think that it's also important that the unprovoked provocation should cease forthwith.

 

[Racer]

Opening lots of new threads here and there just avoiding solving the issue.. the problem will just shift to that one.

Right that's it.. not posting about the dow anymore on this or any other thread if that is the case

 

[TheBramble]

User, Racer, Everyone - the Weekly Dow Threads existed a long time before this one came into existence.

The Weekly Dow threads also co-existed with this one for a long time until Chartman became engaged in other business.

If this thread were closed, the content would be available for all - for ever - to view at their pleasure

It's a long thread and this might dissuade newbies or new joiners from even starting it. But I don't personally have a view on its disposition one way or the other.

I'm not the best person to be running a weekly Dow thread either as I don't habitually trade the Dow (unless it's doing or going to do something spiffing ), but it did make for good reading. And it would be great if one of the more regular and seasoned Dow traders took it on-board as their own.

And yes, gmca686 does have a valid point. Of course we want to review the action as it unfolds and potentially amend our view on a daily, even hourly (or possibly even by the minute if so inclined).

But the weekly Dow thread always started with a basis for what 'might' happen the following week based on standard TA concepts, current market 'feel' and fundamentals among other things and contained useful inputs and updates - not on the RT calling targets or live trades taken (which are of of limited interest), but commentary on the unfolding action and the potential "If then this; else that..." type style posts at which gmac686 hints

As I say, I don't have a view either way: this or that - this and that. Seems some might like the more focused Weekly thread. Those that do will, those that don't, wont.

I've started the weekly for next week with a basic analysis of Support & Resistance.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=15343

Let's see some of the rising triangle, wedge and pennant boys & girls and even the entropic spiral jedi Fib Gann golden mean mystic megs as well. Open to all.

 

[barjon]

Opening lots of new threads here and there just avoiding solving the issue.. the problem will just shift to that one.

Right that's it.. not posting about the dow anymore on this or any other thread if that is the case

Racer,

Just to repeat..........this thread is still open.

Tony has chosen to open a new thread, specifically on the DOW next week and that's ok.

If people want to continue using this dynamic thread (taking kriesau's point) then that's ok too so long as it gets used properly. I'll keep it clear of the dross should any appear again.

I'll also clear out all today's posts about the matter once everyone has had their say since all of it's "off topic" as well . Then everyone can get back to the DOW and where it's going.

jon

 

[User]

User, Racer, Everyone - the Weekly Dow Threads existed a long time before this one came into existence.

and your point is? Its not a competition. It is rude to suggest that the thread should be closed down. Why not close the whole site down? You cannot simply have the right to close any odd thread down! The problem was the drivel and that should now stop, hopefully. Thank you for cleaning the thread up.....closing the thread is not needed.

Racer don't leave on this raw note. Your an attributeto this thread, please continue posting....

 

[User]

Just to repeat..........this thread is still open.

Tony has chosen to open a new thread, specifically on the DOW next week and that's ok.

If people want to continue using this dynamic thread (taking kriesau's point) then that's ok too so long as it gets used properly. I'll keep it clear of the dross should any appear again.

I'll also clear out all today's posts about the matter once everyone has had their say since all of it's "off topic" as well . Then everyone can get back to the DOW and where it's going.

Thanks for your input Barjon. I don't think you need to clear today's posts as their is nothing wrong with them, its just a general discussion. But thanks for clearing the posts that were utter nonsense.

Now we can continue with the informative posts. Thanks you

 

[barjon]

and your point is? Its not a competition. It is rude to suggest that the thread should be closed down. Why not close the whole site down? You cannot simply have the right to close any odd thread down! The problem was the drivel and that should now stop, hopefully. Thank you for cleaning the thread up.....closing the thread is not needed.

Racer don't leave on this raw note. Your an attributeto this thread, please continue posting....

User,

Discussion about closing (NOT deleting - that would lose everything) the thread was my fault. It seemed to me it had outlived its usefulness because of the nature of the vast majority of the posts over the last few weeks.

As I said in reply to Racer (and I second your comments about the value of Racer's posts) the thread is still open and will remain so while you wish it and it is properly used. I will see that it is by keeping up the cleaning!!

jon

 

[TheBramble]

and your point is? Its not a competition.

I'm not going to argue with you User. I am aware you started this thread and of your sensitivities in the matter.

Of course it's not a competition. You started this thread when the "Weeklies" had been running for centuries (well, almost ). There was no 'accusation' toward you then of competition.

Goodness sake, there's enough room for all. What's the problem?

We can choose which threads to participate in, which to just view and which to ignore completely.

If the admin & mods decide to keep this thread open then I may well choose to participate in future, or not. As I've said, I don't have an issue save the 'vibes' thing which I feel long threads tend to acquire AND I personally found the weekly a more useful (shelf-life-wise) chunk of info to work with.

 

[Racer]

Racer,

Just to repeat..........this thread is still open.

Tony has chosen to open a new thread, specifically on the DOW next week and that's ok.

If people want to continue using this dynamic thread (taking kriesau's point) then that's ok too so long as it gets used properly. I'll keep it clear of the dross should any appear again.

I'll also clear out all today's posts about the matter once everyone has had their say since all of it's "off topic" as well . Then everyone can get back to the DOW and where it's going.

jon

I can see the points made in several of the recent posts, yes to an extent a shorter weekly thread is a good idea, a thread with lots of pages deters new participants, but my point is not the thread construction it is the content. Creating a new thread is only moving the problem somewhere else.
My main objection to a new weekly thread is that it is thinning of ideas. Why have two threads for the same thing?
I trade long and short term, do I have to look at both threads and post on both? The market takes up too much of my time to keep looking and then deciding on which thread I should post information and comments..
My main agreement with the new weekly thread is that it is smaller and more manageable and will end at a set time.

I do not want to go away and thanks for the appreciation, but I am fed up with all the silly arguments and don't want to wade through lots of rubbish and bickering. It is interesting and amusing for a short time but after a while it destroys the value of useful inputs by other members of the board.

This is a fantastic site and far better than most boards. Don't let it fall to the level of others. I appreciate all the hard work that the moderators do, not an easy task, so thank you to all of them.

 

[bulldozer]

I have to agree with User - it would be a shame to terminate the thread. It's a dynamic forum and consequently it's archival value would be minimal.

There are many good participants here and the general tenor of posts has been both good and informative. I am quite prepared to refrain from any further retalitory posts but I think that it's also important that the unprovoked provocation should cease forthwith.

Kries,
I totally agree with U :!: You now sound like an intelligent person with intelligent comments :!:

And hopefully no more comments on bafoons

Bull
Yesterday is history Tmrrow is a mystery Today is a gift hence called present

 

[kriesau]

Racer,

Just to repeat..........this thread is still open.

I'll keep it clear of the dross should any appear again.

Then everyone can get back to the DOW and where it's going.

jon

Positive measure.

 

[kriesau]

Kries,
I totally agree with U :!:
Yesterday is history

Bull
:

Okay

 

[kriesau]

Racer - more on the housing bubble

Currently Fannie and Freddie are liable for over $3 trillion of outstanding debt securities to the market...the national debt is at $8 trillion.....how is it that they can accumulate debt of their own thats nearly 40% of the nations debt....$3 trillion is a lot to have at risk on the assumption that the underlying cash flow will always be there.....It's a misconstrued implication that this debt has a 100% US government backing...the debt that they issue is private debt and is not fully backed by the US government..

On April 6th 2005 Greenspan himself lobbied Congress himself to place more controls and limits on these portfolio sizes. If Greenspan is starting to see the writing on the wall...could it be worse than we realize....In order to hedge against market risk, most notably interest rate rise, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack have notional balances in their derivative portfolios in trillions of dollars....The WSJ has gone as far as to publicly criticize and compare Fannie and Freddies derivative schemes to those of Enron.

The burst of the Tech Bubble in 2000 started a recession that was never permitted to run its course. The Real Estate Bubble (promoted by the lowest interest rates that followed) only delayed it and the resumption will be much worse because of it....If Fannie and Freddie do default on their debt...Mutual Funds, Pension Funds and the like will have to take massive write offs because their so-called safe investments turned sour on them.....a sell off could ensue that would be disastrous not only for domestic financial markets but for global financial markets....The US government does not have the resources to pull off a bailout of this magnitude. The LTCM crisis and bailout in 1998 will look like a ripple in a fish pond compared to the tsunami-type waves a storm like this could bring.

Bottom line is that this Fed generated Real Estate Boom has allowed Fannie and Freddie to accumalte portfolios that are extremely dangerous for the US Financial Markets. A tightening economy will test their ability to guarantee all of their debt. If this teetering risk is not handled appropriately it could unleash a massive global financial crisis. Fed policy has produced consumer spending in recent years that has artificially buoyed the economy. We believe the probabilities are in favour of major economic instability resulting from this.

This is a precis of an article -I can't credit the author, who is reputable, due to copyright - but it's both an interesting and potentially alarming perspective.