Kriesau,
I rely on corporate announcements, political events, economic data and other related things such as the price of oil and the Dollar's movements. Unfortunately for me, the weekend has been event free and this week does not offer anything either.
This puts me in limbo as there is no fundamental case for a 300 point rise or fall during the course of the next 2 weeks. That said, oil might rise a few Dollars and that will change or the French will vote NO on Sunday and all hell will break loose. Bad GDP figures on Thursday will confirm the steady downturn in global growth and adversely impact share valuations.
I rely on corporate announcements, political events, economic data and other related things such as the price of oil and the Dollar's movements. Unfortunately for me, the weekend has been event free and this week does not offer anything either.
This puts me in limbo as there is no fundamental case for a 300 point rise or fall during the course of the next 2 weeks. That said, oil might rise a few Dollars and that will change or the French will vote NO on Sunday and all hell will break loose. Bad GDP figures on Thursday will confirm the steady downturn in global growth and adversely impact share valuations.
roguetrader
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What would the expected ramifications of that be? I am not up on this story.
The Dollar will rise against the Euro (probably excessively) on the prospect of the Euro collapse. Whilst this is not imminent, the Italians have already started murmuring about the return of the Lira due to recessions which have been caused by the rise of the Euro and the constraints imposed by the single currency. A rise in the Dollar will unravel all the economic benefits that the US obtained from their "Strong Dollar" policy and lead to a rise in the US/European trade deficit.
LION63 said:
Lion
Would you expect a negative reaction by the markets to Greenspan's Housing Froth comments on Friday last ?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aXrtiHbEr_M4&refer=home
roguetrader
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LION63 said:
Thanx Lion, interesing, this looks like a story worthy of some close monitoring.
Minder,
There should not be any short term reaction to his comments. Many will feel that the economy at large is not affected by a few domestic housing speculators and that this should have no ramifications for the economy, so there will not be a sell off in equities. The problem is that excessive debt, lack of pricing power and too much competition will keep a cap on the markets. That is why short term traders are making a lot of money; markets go up 200 - 300 points and then they give it all back again.
However, in six months time when those property speculators become forced sellers in Las Vegas and Florida who is going to pick up the tab? What will happen to shares in Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc. Bad debt provisions will rise and banks become (forced) property investors.
There should not be any short term reaction to his comments. Many will feel that the economy at large is not affected by a few domestic housing speculators and that this should have no ramifications for the economy, so there will not be a sell off in equities. The problem is that excessive debt, lack of pricing power and too much competition will keep a cap on the markets. That is why short term traders are making a lot of money; markets go up 200 - 300 points and then they give it all back again.
However, in six months time when those property speculators become forced sellers in Las Vegas and Florida who is going to pick up the tab? What will happen to shares in Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc. Bad debt provisions will rise and banks become (forced) property investors.
Absolutely Kriesau and good on you, that should give you the best of both worlds. In your case, one should compliment the other. Do you ever find yourself with long and short trades on at the same time? If you do, how do you manage the trades?
Slightly off topic but this information was taken from the Bloomberg website.
Quadriga, Bailey Coates Hedge Funds Drop Exceed 20% (Update2)
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds including Quadriga Capital Management Inc. and Bailey Coates Asset Management LLP posted losses of more than 20 percent, as credit-rating downgrades of U.S. automakers General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. spurred declines in the financial markets.
The Quadriga Superfund C was down 28.6 percent this year as of May 17 and Superfund B fell 23.2 percent, according to the Vienna-based company's Web site. The Bailey Coates Cromwell Fund dropped 20.1 percent in the first four months of 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The declines of the Quadriga and Bailey Coates funds far exceed the average 1.6 percent four-month drop of hedge funds tracked by Hennessee Group LLC, a consulting firm in New York that tracks industry returns. The slide accelerated this month after Standard & Poor's cut the bond ratings of Detroit-based GM, two levels to BB, making the world's largest automaker by sales the biggest-ever company to have its debt rated as junk.
``Some hedge funds have been surfing on the edge and they have been caught out,'' said Nigel Bolton, who oversees about $9 billion as head of European stocks at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh.
Christian Halper, co-founder of Quadriga, wasn't available for comment. The firm's Superfund C rose at an average annual rate of 54 percent in the three-year period ended Dec. 31, the company's Web site shows.
London-based Bailey Coates, started two years ago by former Perry Capital LLP analysts Jonathan Bailey and Stephen Coates, said in a statement that it plans to keep ``the fund going.''
Rating Cuts
The assets of Bailey Coates's funds have plummeted about 50 percent this year to $635 million, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier today, citing people familiar with the firm. The drop was exacerbated by investments in stocks including Morgan Stanley and Cablevision Systems Corp.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a May 5 speech that the growth in hedge fund assets creates the potential for ``unanticipated losses to investors.'' He also said banks that lend to hedge funds should strengthen the link between credit terms and the amount of information they receive about the funds' holdings.
Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment portfolios with more than $1 trillion of assets in total that bet on falling as well as rising market prices. Pension funds, endowments and other investors poured a record $27.4 billion into hedge funds in the hopes of improving investment returns, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.
Stock funds, which account for about 30 percent of hedge fund assets, were down 3.1 percent on average this year as of April 29, Hennessee Group reported.
Futures Funds
Some of this year's worst-performing hedge funds are those that trade futures. These so-called commodity trading advisers generally make money when futures move either up or down for a sustained period. This year they have lost money as the dollar and oil prices changed direction several times.
John W. Henry & Co., the Boca Raton, Florida-based firm controlled by Boston Red Sox owner John Henry, reported declines of more than 20 percent this year for many of its portfolios.
The firm's Strategic Allocation fund, which has $1.6 billion invested in a range of financial and commodity futures, fell 26.8 percent in the first four months of 2005, according to the company's Web site.
``The whole area has become quite overheated,'' said Colin Mclean, who helps oversee about 1 billion pounds ($1.8 billion) at SVM Asset Management in Edinburgh, including some hedge funds. ``Some of the investment strategies that worked two years ago aren't working now.''
Quadriga, Bailey Coates Hedge Funds Drop Exceed 20% (Update2)
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds including Quadriga Capital Management Inc. and Bailey Coates Asset Management LLP posted losses of more than 20 percent, as credit-rating downgrades of U.S. automakers General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. spurred declines in the financial markets.
The Quadriga Superfund C was down 28.6 percent this year as of May 17 and Superfund B fell 23.2 percent, according to the Vienna-based company's Web site. The Bailey Coates Cromwell Fund dropped 20.1 percent in the first four months of 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The declines of the Quadriga and Bailey Coates funds far exceed the average 1.6 percent four-month drop of hedge funds tracked by Hennessee Group LLC, a consulting firm in New York that tracks industry returns. The slide accelerated this month after Standard & Poor's cut the bond ratings of Detroit-based GM, two levels to BB, making the world's largest automaker by sales the biggest-ever company to have its debt rated as junk.
``Some hedge funds have been surfing on the edge and they have been caught out,'' said Nigel Bolton, who oversees about $9 billion as head of European stocks at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh.
Christian Halper, co-founder of Quadriga, wasn't available for comment. The firm's Superfund C rose at an average annual rate of 54 percent in the three-year period ended Dec. 31, the company's Web site shows.
London-based Bailey Coates, started two years ago by former Perry Capital LLP analysts Jonathan Bailey and Stephen Coates, said in a statement that it plans to keep ``the fund going.''
Rating Cuts
The assets of Bailey Coates's funds have plummeted about 50 percent this year to $635 million, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier today, citing people familiar with the firm. The drop was exacerbated by investments in stocks including Morgan Stanley and Cablevision Systems Corp.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a May 5 speech that the growth in hedge fund assets creates the potential for ``unanticipated losses to investors.'' He also said banks that lend to hedge funds should strengthen the link between credit terms and the amount of information they receive about the funds' holdings.
Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment portfolios with more than $1 trillion of assets in total that bet on falling as well as rising market prices. Pension funds, endowments and other investors poured a record $27.4 billion into hedge funds in the hopes of improving investment returns, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.
Stock funds, which account for about 30 percent of hedge fund assets, were down 3.1 percent on average this year as of April 29, Hennessee Group reported.
Futures Funds
Some of this year's worst-performing hedge funds are those that trade futures. These so-called commodity trading advisers generally make money when futures move either up or down for a sustained period. This year they have lost money as the dollar and oil prices changed direction several times.
John W. Henry & Co., the Boca Raton, Florida-based firm controlled by Boston Red Sox owner John Henry, reported declines of more than 20 percent this year for many of its portfolios.
The firm's Strategic Allocation fund, which has $1.6 billion invested in a range of financial and commodity futures, fell 26.8 percent in the first four months of 2005, according to the company's Web site.
``The whole area has become quite overheated,'' said Colin Mclean, who helps oversee about 1 billion pounds ($1.8 billion) at SVM Asset Management in Edinburgh, including some hedge funds. ``Some of the investment strategies that worked two years ago aren't working now.''
LION63 said:
Very rarely. It last happened to me on the Dow in mid April when I had a short triggered when the index dropped below 10,000. It immediately reversed and shot back up touching 10,200 the next day and in the process it triggered a long that I had at 10050 in case the support at 10,000 proved too strong. The net result was that my long covered my short losses and made me about a 50 pt profit when I closed it out as the market fell back below 10,100 again.
Some luck involved here since had the market only bounced aound 120 pts to 10100 and turned down again back toward 9950 my long would have been stopped out and I would have had a double whammy. Sometimes the market moves so fast that it can catch you out before you have time to respond and manage your trade.
have to agree with Lion, I trade pretty much off the same field. Would be interested to know what volume is like and what technical short term indicators are saying... I have gone short but conversely with so little data I am little concerned that we might just drift higher. Keeping an eye on the Nasdaq as it seems to be leading.
lemput said:
We are at a key point of resistance on the Dow at 10500 and on the SPX at 1191. Both indices have been hovering at these levels since Wednesday albiet on lower than avearge volume.
These are pretty critical resistance levels being mid point between this years high and low. They still could go either way. If they break through and head north the next minor resistance level would be 10550 and 1196 but they would probably have the momentum to go on to 10700 and 1212. If they fail to break through then they could retest support at 10400 and 1179.
Virtually no news due out today and oil has slipped back almost 1% although the signs are that it could go up again in the very near future. This could still go either way and I've also got a very speculative short in too which I'm ready to close out if it looks necessary. The Dow has started the day much more positively than either the SPX or the COMPX. The SOXX is looking like a yoyo this morning but with a slight bias to the downside. At the moment 10550 looks to be a little more likely than 10450
TheBramble
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I don't think 500 can really be called resistance when it's breached it by 20pts already today. It's certainly a 'ramp'...kriesau said:
I agree with your analysis and feel there is a greater probability for it to fall back - but let's see what the market wants to do.
TheBramble said:I don't think 500 can really be called resistance when it's breached it by 20pts already today. It's certainly a 'ramp'...
I agree with your analysis and feel there is a greater probability for it to fall back - but let's see what the market wants to do.
Well I don't think that you can look at support and resistence levels THAT precisely ! Back in April when strong support held at 10000 it actually bottomed out at 9962 but you could hardly classify that as a real breach. The Dow has touched 10528 this morning and dropped back to 10499. It may rebound and confirm a real breach of 10500 or it may decline back to the next minor resistance level of 10460.
roguetrader
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SOX showing relative weakness now down 3/4% . Touch of vertigo at the highs
Total volume mixed, trailing Fridays levels on the NYSE and ahead on the Nasdaq
Total volume mixed, trailing Fridays levels on the NYSE and ahead on the Nasdaq
Joules MM1 said:
Hi Joules,apologies for my crypticness,never intended mate.
IMO down,mainly as im a long term position trader and work mainly off long term charts and they are down,those fib levels tend to act as excellent support and resistence points and am just really fascinated how they do react and always have been.In this case resistence.Of course nothing is 100 percent fool proof but seeing as this has now travelled almost bang off the 618 up from the entire move from the 7th march to the 20th of april and reacted quite well,one can only summise that if this holds for the rest of the day there is a reasonable chance that this could move down from here.How far I have no idea but I will position myself short when I get more confirmation and shall ride down until I see a major resistence point broken.Hope this answers the question.Ash
