Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[JFK]

With absolutely no wish to disappoint I can guarantee that none of the above will direct the market, it never has and never will. I appreciate there are people out there that believe that what George W has to say will effect the markets, he may just be being used as a stooge.
The markets today SMI dropping to 6000 possibly sticking around this. Ill come back on DJ later.

He could declare war on China? A bit extreme maybe, but Americans will do anything for a profit.

 

[fridayeve]

GeorgeW speaking used to make the market drop 100 points!

George W "speaking" did not MAKE anything drop 100 points save perhaps a few jaws.

 

[Pat494]

Thank goodness big G didn't locate all the oil under America !!

It would be 'well' over $100 per barrel

 

[kriesau]

Well there are two events that could affect the markets.

1. It's a triple witching day today.
2. Alan Greenspan is making a speech on Energy to the Economic Club of New York at 12.30pm EST today.

Ooops - sorry, of course it's not triple witching day (it's next month) but it is an Options Expiry Day.

 

[JFK]

Looking ahead, are there any reports due out on Monday?

 

[fridayeve]

A cheese grater is a very violent book to Stevie Wonder.

Don't come running to me if you break your leg.

The sound of one hand clapping is mightier than the crispy bits at the bottom of the bag.

That should cover a few circus markets....trampolines are bouncing

Oh for gooooodness sake.

 

[roguetrader]

You're right, I've just played about with the Stockcharts.com $Indu....ummm. All I can suppose is that with Sharescope, when the chart is changed to "weekly bars" the data used for moving averages is still being worked out over daily periods. This makes sense to me because moving averages are usually known by their average period, i.e. 20-day SMA, 50-day EMA.

To be honest I am unsure of how useful it is to calculate the weekly MAs in weekly charts, because one usually trades on a daily basis (or checks charts daily) rather than weekly. I hesitate to say eSignal/Stockcharts weekly charts are incorrect for showing weekly MAs, but there sure is a big difference between them and daily MAs!

Really it all boils down to how you use MA's and how significant you think they are as, say support or resistance. If you look at the 200 week sma on the SOX you will see that by coincidence or design the index has encountered significant resistance in that area, as such I certainly would want to be aware of that area, if you cannot see that MA on your charts it makes it difficult to be aware of it. But as I say it all boils down to your style.

 

[Minder]

NEW YORK (CNN/Money)
Concerns about losses in the hedge fund industry also persist, and along with the threat energy prices pose to sustained stock gains, could prop up Treasury prices.

"There are some fears about inflation but people are even more concerned about what's happening in the corporate credit market," said Gerald Lucas, chief Treasury and agency strategist at Banc of America Securities, told Reuters.

Capital inflows into the U.S. declined in March to the lowest level since October 2003.

The government said $45.7 billion of net inflows into U.S. securities was not enough on its own to cover the month's $55 billion trade deficit. Economists had anticipated a net inflow of between $60 billion and $85 billion.

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Of the $45b posted, Carribbean Banking Centres were the biggest gain m o m with an increase of $33b.

Dollar ponzi scheme ?

Slightly off topic, but does anyone have a good understanding of how the TIC data is reported ?

Edit
The data is revised for each holder, so for example, in March the holdings for BoJ were posted as $701 billion. But in May the BoJ holdings have been revised to $679 billion.

The totals in the tables in Rob Kirby's article are misleading. The total for March should read 1977.1, not the 1777.1 that is shown.

The issue in question was raised by Rob Kirby in a short article here

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/0518.html

This text was added to the table from the US Treasury website.

2 Denotes series break: Series IV positions data for this month and prior periods to June 2003 are based on the end-June 2003 annual Survey; Series V positions data for this month and subsequent periods are based on preliminary results from the end-June 2004 annual Survey.

I have to admit that I don't understand Note 2.

Anyone help ?

Edit

It seems unusual, but I have not been looking at the TIC data long enough to know if this revision is a normal adjustment. Judging by the lack of reaction in any market, I am assuming it is.

 

[jonnyy40]

Maybe one of you could come around and help with my Squirrel problem.I nipped out with an old .177 air rifle but they'd hopped off

 

[Bluewave]

Maybe one of you could come around and help with my Squirrel problem.I nipped out with an old .177 air rifle but they'd hopped off

Be warned..... :cheesy:

 

[Racer]

George W "speaking" did not MAKE anything drop 100 points save perhaps a few jaws.

Were you trading a few years ago?

Mind you these are not bad..

http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blbushisms.htm

 

[Racer]

The last inflow of funds was much lower than expected

NEW YORK (CNN/Money)
Concerns about losses in the hedge fund industry also persist, and along with the threat energy prices pose to sustained stock gains, could prop up Treasury prices.

"There are some fears about inflation but people are even more concerned about what's happening in the corporate credit market," said Gerald Lucas, chief Treasury and agency strategist at Banc of America Securities, told Reuters.

Capital inflows into the U.S. declined in March to the lowest level since October 2003.

The government said $45.7 billion of net inflows into U.S. securities was not enough on its own to cover the month's $55 billion trade deficit. Economists had anticipated a net inflow of between $60 billion and $85 billion.

An Economy On Thin Ice

By Paul A. Volcker
Sunday, April 10, 2005; Page B07

The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India -- with close to 40 percent of the world's population -- have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable.

Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks -- call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.

Read the rest here

 

[kriesau]

The last inflow of funds was much lower than expected



An Economy On Thin Ice

By Paul A. Volcker
Sunday, April 10, 2005; Page B07

The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India -- with close to 40 percent of the world's population -- have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable.

Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks -- call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.

Read the rest here

"Growth in global central bank holdings of US Treasury and agency securites is a leading indicator of US economic growth. A rising Fed Fund rate is negatively correlated with the growth in global central bank holdings of US securities. Growth in global central bank holdings of US securities is decelerating. The Fed is expected to continue hiking the Fund rate. All of this suggests a slowdown in US economic growth is on the cards"
Paul Kasriel, Director of Research at Northern Trust.

 

[jonnyy40]

Whatever you say it's damned interesting.Who would imagine that thousands of peoples thoughts and ideas would conglomerate into something so marvellous

 

[kriesau]

Nice dip in the first 25 minutes which enabled me to close yesterdays short at a marginal profit.
Will watch to see whether it can break through 10500 and test the next level of resistance at 10550 or whether the market reacts negatively to Greenspans lunchtime speech and turns down to revisit 10400.

 

[Effkay]

Dow really needs to get thorugh 10500, SPX stopped precisely at 1191 resistance, anyone brave and gone short?

 

[DowSyndrome]

Dow really needs to get thorugh 10500, SPX stopped precisely at 1191 resistance, anyone brave and gone short?

Ive got a big short in at 10495, moved my stop up to 10475.

 

[SOCRATES]

Ive got a big short in at 10495, moved my stop up to 10475.

It is not a matter of being brave, it is a matter of knowing what is going on.

And how can you have a short position and place the stop below it ?

You are worse than Kriesau.

 

[rrtech]

Might go down and test yesterdays low of 10440. I don't think it will go lower until at least after Greenspan on oil at 5PM UK time

 

[DaveJB]

Entertaining few pages there...
just to (hopefully) help out on a purely technical point, I've always considered it more appropriate to call the MA's 'n-period MA', if you have an intraday chart based on 10 minute bars then the 20MA is 20 x 10 minute bars, a monthly chart would have 20 months averaged, and so on.

I follow the argument put forward that people are 'usually' referring to days and trading off daily bars etc., but I think that's an incorrect mindset - you are implying that the daily data has a singificance greater than the rest, whilst it is (A) very useful to view several periods simultaneously (I have a 10 min and a daily chart running for each item I am watching, as a matter of course... I want my intraday trades to be in the macroscopic direction signalled by the daily, and I will often look over weekly/monthly charts to get a 'longer term view'.

Taken to extremes you might use a yearly bar chart - how could you plot a 20 day MA on it? It's not possible - the MA is of a shorter period than the individual bars. The MA on a chart ought to reflect "n-periods" of whatever a single bar is timed at, if it doesn't then I think the software/instructions/website ought to point this out.

Dave