Where is the Dow and Mothers heading in 2006?

[leovirgo]

a possible head and shoulder

If it were to become H&S, neck line will be at 10950. If not.....

 

[leovirgo]

there we go...

 

[tradesmart]

Yes, there it went......short from 11000YM, but maybe not for too long..

yesterday:-
however, Friday the 13th tomorrow…..they might take it down a bit further on a ‘stops’ run…....we've seen it all before......

I've got my suspicions about this move just down through 'obvious' support - the Naz hasn't joined in for one thing....oil is down a bit and the 10yr note is rallying like crazy which should take the pressure off of stocks...?!

Lets see how it plays out....

 

[RUDEBOY]

Well hello, sailors!.......A mate of mine bought an 'idiots guide to the futures markets' style book, just before Christmas. He was reading it and all that, you know the score, asking questions about this and that. Anyway, he's got a mate who's into stock............! This guy only turns round to my mate and tells him futures are more of a gamble!!!!????@!$$$%&(. Would you Adam and Eve it? What did i tell my mate?


I WALKED OFF LAUGHING!

I PREDICT A RIOT!

 

[tradesmart]

I PREDICT A RIOT!

I prefer them when they’re unpredicted and spontaneous RB – much more fun….have a Molotov cocktail on me…

As for the futures over stocks?, here’s US trader John Carter’s justification for trading YM Dow mini’s:-

If you are trading a single stock, you can have all kinds of outside influences move the price. Maybe insiders are selling or buying? Maybe an analyst has just issued an upgrade while their trading department is dumping the stock? Who knows? But when investors in general want to sell stocks, the Dow plummets. When investors in general want to buy stocks, the Dow rallies. This includes individual investors, hedge funds, program traders, arbitrage traders and everybody's favorite buy and sell programs. The Dow stocks will participate in all of these instances. Supply and demand at its finest, and this is what makes the mini-sized Dow futures contract such a beautiful instrument to trade.

So there…!

The indexes seem to have found some support now after the two session minor pullback (so far!), and both the Dow and the Naz are singing from the same songsheet with falling wedge triangle patterns, which offer the possibility of a break to the upside imho…..more evidence of the algorithmic lockstep of the indices..

Both charts show that the pivot points automatically generated in SierraCharts are very useful……

 

[RUDEBOY]

Picking tops? It's a painstaking business! Myself.....i can't be arsed with it any more. Last year was too blar-zay for myself and my account suffered. This year i want to be right or not involved. If i'm not sure, there's no percentage trade.

Buy the YM, now.

Don't pick the top!

Not just yet!

 

[RUDEBOY]

....Well do ya....
Do ya do ya wanna
....Well do ya....
Do ya do ya wanna........wanna go,

Where i've never let you before.....

Franz Ferdinand!

Top group.

 

[tradesmart]

Franz Ferdinand…?

Give my regards to the Archduke…..

Oil has gapped up and YM is currently promising an big opening gap down below Friday's session lows to the pivot at 935ish which is around the 38.2% fib retracement of the big 10720 – 11080 move……

This could be a very nice setup in the making imho….(y’know - gaps are inefficient – YM doesn’t like too many of them, nudge nudge/wink wink… )...but timing is everything as usual...

Also INTC, YHOO & IBM are reporting after the bell today - maybe an improvement in tone after the Dogs of the Dow last week...?

 

[tradesmart]

Above:-

Also INTC, YHOO & IBM are reporting after the bell today - maybe an improvement in tone after the Dogs of the Dow last week...?

Some hopes..!.....all tanked bigtime after hours - Dow futs now in shock mode at 858 - around the 61.8% fib retracement of the new year rally.....

YM looked to be recovering nicely towards the close....even a semblance of a small inv H&S underpinned by PD on RSI.....

Another gap down open could be in store tomorrow barring a miraculous overnight recovery...

And miracles rarely happen in markets...

 

[ttc]

Is the DAX telling us what to expect in the US markets soon?

Another chart removed because it contains advertising/URLs. Please see my comments on your other two posts to date.

 

[tradesmart]

Is the DAX telling us what to expect in the US markets soon?

Interesting chart ttc – can you post a Dow chart with your targets…?

Not the all out tank today that the futures seem to indicate earlier, so maybe the market has found some support at around 10850 YM (10820 cash) which is the 61.8% retracement level of the new year gains……(didn't last long did they....?... )

But a few positive company reports could likely reverse the INTC/YHOO etc effect – AAPL/AMD/EBAY after the bell today…..will it all be bad..?..I doubt it....

The fall over the last four sessions has been so consistent that there has been no consolidation formation to derive a target from; but assuming that the market has found support at current levels (which also coincide with the trendline linking the December lows ) as indicated by divergence on RSI/CCI, maybe we can expect the big 35 point gap just below 11000YM at 61.8% upside, to provide a target and to be filled shortly imho....

Well, it's not a one way ticket, is it?......

 

[frugi]

I concur TS. More likely than not that there is a channel escape upwards tomorrow, after 7 waves down. I'm long 4 with 925 and 988 targets, stop 844 (b/e, which is nice) The temptation to watch the Nikkei in the early hours will be high.





.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Hello, TS. I know what i said about picking tops...but...i think the top is in. Why, you may ask?

Dunno,....gut feeling.

O.K. i'll put my neck on the line.

Personally, it's just the way price has moved since the New Year on all the majors.

Death throws of a mid term trend?

We'll see.

 

[tradesmart]

I'm long 4 with 925 and 988 targets, stop 844 (b/e, which is nice) The temptation to watch the Nikkei in the early hours will be high.

A good entry point Fruges and a bounce on the Nikkei – I see the futs are now at 10915….Good Trading…

Hello, TS. I know what i said about picking tops...but...i think the top is in. Why, you may ask?

Dunno,....gut feeling.

O.K. i'll put my neck on the line.

Personally, it's just the way price has moved since the New Year on all the majors.

Death throws of a mid term trend?

We'll see.

Certainly the unbroken downdraught over the last few sessions is overwhelmingly bearish RB, and maybe we are now at a critical pivot point, but a few good company reports and anticipation of a market positive FED meeting at the end of the month could turn the tide….but there are no 'dead certs' - things are going to be very volatile for sure...

 

[frugi]

Thanks TS. 1:1 complete on YM. Out 2 at 925 as indicated and stop on rest to 926. I don't think this is going higher without a decent pullback first, perhaps to 910 or so. Don't mind if it does though...

 

[Bez]

Excelllent calls as Always TS & frugi

did the same myself (on ES) Booked it now though, (prob to early)

Also had a proverbial pound on with CMC :cheesy:

 

[RUDEBOY]

Nice one guys! I also had a cheeky little long today, Although it struggled a bit compared to techs.

 

[frugi]

Cheers Bez, yours looked like an excellent trade. Don't spend the £1/pt all at once. :cheesy: In my case, even a stopped Frugi tells the right time twice a year.

Buyers seem to be happily paying above fair value since 4:00ish our time, and breadth is very healthy. Hmm, perhaps the squeeze will continue up another 20 points...

 

[RUDEBOY]

I've sold 900, 50pt stop.....i just couldn't help myself. I'll leave it over night.

My target?.....probably my stop.

 

[tradesmart]

Good luck in whatever direction you are trading - things are certainly volatile with oil at over $67, the earnings still rolling in, and Osama rattling his Kalashnikov again…!

The only succour I can see for the bulls is in a potential inv H & S in the making with a possible 100 point target from current resistance, but this could easily morph into something else…..