You don't need a PhD in economics. 6 months of initial casual education after which you do daily research is all you need. Added to that, you need to sit in front of your pc all day while I can operate to a preplanned schedule (60 to 90 minutes total per day). So while you are sitting there waiting for something to pop up and fight off gambling habits, I am doing productive things unrelated to trading. Smart trading vs forced trading, take your pic.
Where is my trade? Is this like a "take me to your dealer" question?
My trading for 2018 starts tomorrow with the fomc minutes. If you want an example of how I trade though I am more than happy to provide but I am guessing you are being sarcastic and don't really want to hear it.
Nowler
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Thanks very much for that mate! That video was exceptionally useful!
Such a simplified way of explaining it 🙂
I am going to watch it again shortly and perhaps i'll run my understanding past some of you here. I had a few thoughts pop into mind the first time around...I probably should have written them down 🙂
Nowler
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Cheers mate!
Funnily enough when I opened that video, it started at 5 mins something... Evidently I had already come across it couldn't quite follow or just couldn't engage with it. The video that FXX provided here has actually been quite helpful. It gives me a clearer understanding of the cogs in the machine and the overall result of human behaviour/policy. So when I watch that again, i'll watch that Kicklighter video again. I was quite perplexed at why the USD reacted the way it did to what I thought was going to provoke a bullish outcome...im sure the video will make more sense to me soon 🙂
The only thing I'll end up teaching you is that you are too stubborn to know what's good for you (a lesson you are probably experiencing on a daily basis resulting in you looking deeper into your charts for an answer that will never materialise).
"A smart man makes a mistake, learns from it, and never makes that mistake again. But a wise man finds a smart man and learns from him how to avoid the mistake altogether."
piphoe
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i go HERE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_Friedrich_Nietzsche
for my philosophy , lol just kidding 😀
i need a trade, not philosophy ahahaha
i come to t2w for my trades 😀
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_Friedrich_Nietzsche
for my philosophy , lol just kidding 😀
i need a trade, not philosophy ahahaha
i come to t2w for my trades 😀
Even if you're a short-term trader these sorts of fundamentals are dangerous to ignore. That said, if central bank activities, news info, national GDP etc. etc. don't generate some movement in the range of USD charts or EUR charts or GBP charts etc., then how useful are they for trading? After all, we're not any of us looking for a site somewhere on the planet to locate a new TV factory or ship-yard.
Nowler
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If high interest rates negatively affect lending and therefore overall spending, ergo deflating an economy through restriction of credit...then why is an economy increasing rates seen as a bullish thing? If it's essentially putting a deflationary pressure on the economy...restricting the freedom of the cogs if you will
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counter_violent
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Lag, takes time for the effects to kick in. There is still tons of free and easy money swilling around, this is why we have rampant inflation (true inflation) not the made up nonsense that govt puts out.
It is unfortunate that some of the conversations in this thread has degenerated into meaningless snipes on a subject out of ignorance. Those who do not use fundamentals to trade is clueless on how economic data are used for trading and very often associate it to a conversation of economic theory.
I use fundamentals to trade just as FXX. We have been taught by different people but our approach is similar simply because it is how institutional traders trade and likewise how we are taught in terms of approach. In simple terms, we are taught how to understand sentiment flows because it drives order flows which obviously drive price movements. Sentiments can last a single session or multi sessions depending on the nature of the economic event. It is about "why" in taking a position rather than simply "how" as in technical analysis. The two approaches can be complimentary and provide a more complete picture of the environment in which a trade is taken.
I use fundamentals to trade just as FXX. We have been taught by different people but our approach is similar simply because it is how institutional traders trade and likewise how we are taught in terms of approach. In simple terms, we are taught how to understand sentiment flows because it drives order flows which obviously drive price movements. Sentiments can last a single session or multi sessions depending on the nature of the economic event. It is about "why" in taking a position rather than simply "how" as in technical analysis. The two approaches can be complimentary and provide a more complete picture of the environment in which a trade is taken.
Nowler
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Could you elaborate please?
I was under the impression that hiking rates stimulated the market and then the chart goes up
In reply to the original post to this thread in term of economic cycle, I don't know and I don't care. Does knowing where it is helps me in making my trade decisions when using fundamentals to trade - NO. This is illustrative of why one can go off tangent when attempting to understand how to fuse fundamental data to trade opportunities.
As FXX mentioned, FOMC is up on Wednesday. It is potentially a tradeable risk event. Will it be - I don't know. What do I need to do? I will refresh my notes from the Dec 13 FOMC meeting minutes and any analyst preview. There are 3 prospective hikes signaled for 2018 with the earliest expected in March 2018. The complication is that at the beginning of the year, there are some rotation of voting members. Key statement to watch will be reference to a March hike. Currently Fed watch is pricing in above even.
As FXX mentioned, FOMC is up on Wednesday. It is potentially a tradeable risk event. Will it be - I don't know. What do I need to do? I will refresh my notes from the Dec 13 FOMC meeting minutes and any analyst preview. There are 3 prospective hikes signaled for 2018 with the earliest expected in March 2018. The complication is that at the beginning of the year, there are some rotation of voting members. Key statement to watch will be reference to a March hike. Currently Fed watch is pricing in above even.
Nowler
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Surely knowing when an economy is stretched to almost breaking point can bring big potential to make money (going short)?
Or knowing that an economy has already been through a successful recessive period after living beyond means and debt catching up with them. Surely locating an economy in this situation which has low interest rates and GDP picking up might present opportunities for going long? Therefore, knowing the stage within cycles should, in my head, present opportunities...?
Before anyone says it, yes, I know one is not merely buying or selling 1 particular currency. It's against another currency.
