Where is the Dow and Mothers heading in 2006?

[tradesmart]

Tuesday’s big rise…. two days consolidation….if this is a continuation pattern 11100 could be in the frame (11065ish cash) and Mr Greenspans ‘legacy’ rally could be on…

(if it’s a reversal pattern, watch out below…..!!!)

(NFP’s at 13.30gmt tomorrow will call the shots imho..... )

 

[peto]

Dunno about the Dow but my mother's off down the Bingo tonight probably, how 'bout yours?

 

[tradesmart]

my mother's off down the Bingo tonight

tsk tsk peto....!

sound like she's a gambler - have you thought about introducing her to trading....?

much safer....!.....



actually I've just noticed the typo..........but I quite like it (must have been the shandy...!)........it has profound connotations....Mother of Invention / Mother of all Battles etc etc........I'll stick with it...

Dow - it's sink or swim time (again) - hard up against recent 950ish resistance - I'm looking for a breakout north towards 11000.......maybe this evening.....!?!

Chart later....

 

[rustic1]

I am looking for a pop & drop on Monday

 

[tradesmart]

I am looking for a pop & drop on Monday

You could be right Rustic…..

Friday’s closing price action (chart attached) left the Dow frustratingly hovering at Decembers resistance highs, unable to breakout but no sign of a selloff; so the mm’s may be tempted to “pop” the opening markup price above and see if the punters take the bait…

The Naz and the S&P have broken out above the December highs, so the Dow, typically lagging; could well follow…..

The big picture target on the 5 day chart puts an ultimate test of the all time 11900ish highs in the frame, with reference to the height of the huge triangle that has formed over 1 year …..

 

[tradesmart]

A nice 300+ point run up in the last week, and a major objective reached with a close above 11,000….

The index is now clearly ready for a consolidation ‘breather’ and with an apparent triangle in formation and a gap-down open in prospect, today’s bias is clearly determined; with possibly a 50point downside target from the breakpoint if the scenario plays out….

Is this a brief foray above 11,000 or will the index gain a firm foothold for a charge towards the all time highs north of 11,900…..?!

I suspect the latter, in due course....

ps - Alcoa gets a 'haircut'......

 

[tradesmart]

Is the US a Stella economy or is it more inclined towards Budweiser? – answers on a postcard please…..

Another close over 11,000…that’s not bearish….!

Good to see that some of the targets mentioned back in November are coming within range…..simple calcs, but they come true quite often…

I suspect that the current price action we are seeing is ‘accumulation’ with fresh new year money coming into the market, but this is only a suspicion until we see the higher prices that it may support….

Today’s opening gap just had to be filled and the 10min timeframe shows an apparent larger triangle under construction; so I’m watching the break for further direction…likely to the upside imho

 

[frugi]

Stella or Bud heconomy, hmm ... I would be hard pressed to choose between them TS.

From Bud we have irksome bursts of crude, repetitive marketing, presumably designed to appeal to those who have difficulty memorising a three syllable word. This rose-tinted jawboning is crucial to ongoing growth, since the product itself couldn't be less similar to beer, unless of course your gratification lies in an outstanding lack of flavour diversity, issues with frogs and complete trust in brand authority. (Budweiser Budvar is an entirely different keg of dreams, of course, and very tasty with it).

Stella - Reassuringly expensive, oh yes, definitely made by hand by conscientious experts with only the finest ingredients - see, even refined artists crave it. Best buy some on credit then, since the future is assured by the never-ending appreciation of your house. And if not, you can always flog a few daubs to the smiling bailiff to make ends meet. Prefered by those who, though often subliminally aware they are being sold short, continue to keep their heads swathed in deep sand and drink it in.

With both you can be assured of waking up in the morning with regrets and a liver full of unwelcome additives.

 

[tradesmart]

regrets and a liver full of unwelcome additives

Just reach for the 'Andrews Liver Salts' Fruges…..!……….they work wonders…

And if you’re in the East End, it’s a “pint of Yuri Geller” or they get confused….even “a pint of Nelson Mandela” could do the trick…

Food for thought:-

Thanks MarketVolume.....

The market continues its delayed volume effect by postponing a downside reaction to the accumulated selling volume. It is possible that this situation could continue for some time yet; it can be attributed to the fact that during this strong stage of the mid-term uptrend, the influence of buying volume is substantially higher than that of selling volume. This means that even relatively modest amounts of buying volume can prolong the uptrend. Any pullback at this stage will likely remain shallow and should not endanger the mid-term uptrend. Only a much greater output of selling volume would act as a clear signal for a reversal from the current mid-term uptrend.

Thanks Charlie Miller..

Program Trading Weekly Report

For the Week of December 26, 2005 to December 30, 2005 Program Trading Averaged 63.50 Percent of the NYSE Volume Dec 27 to Dec 30, 2005

Buy programs were 48.84% of the total program trading volume. Sell programs were 51.16%. Pure index arbitrage was 7.70% of the total program trading volume, which is one of the lowest levels of the year. If you would like to know who is trading all of that stock :-http://www.programtrading.com

Mr Greenspan’s ‘Legacy Rally’ is picking up steam imho – He retires on January 31st and there are many suspicions that the FED (PPT) will rally the market until at least that date – and then Ben’s ‘Inauguration Rally’ could kick-in. They won’t want to usher a new FED chairman in on a tanking market will they…?!

 

[tradesmart]

Great Honk…..!

Another green day and another new high as the bulls apparently ‘up the ante’ - It still obviously wants ‘up’ rather than down imho….they seem to be buying the dips….trillions of $’s coming into the market with the break of 11000…

Interesting to look back on the weekly chart at the resistance levels that were encountered in 2000/2001.....

And Great Honk! as Charlie Miller would say – is that a huge inverse head and shoulders….?!?

Nah, impossible….

The 10min YM chart shows that the initial 11100 target is drawing closer, and with the upper triangle breakout, another wave higher may be commencing…I don’t see anything like a top yet…

This could be the start of a huge move higher…...

 

[mombasa]

But TS, have u seen the RSI/MACD ND on 30min, hourly, daily etc?

Just gone short and will let it run -stoploss 11050.

My first trade for months btw - have had a few issues in my personal life whicg are still ongoing ...

 

[tradesmart]

Hello Mom.. – Long time no see…!....

Yes, things have changed since yesterday (as they do..!) - the upside triangle break amounted to nothing, but was close to the 11100 target anyway; and the trendline break on the way down was a good short signal for me as well….but I suspect that this will be quite a shallow pullback and that we haven’t seen anything like the ultimate ‘top’ yet.

For one thing, today’s opening gap is unfilled which gives a clue that it could be right back up there shortly…..we've had a big run up, and 'proper tops' are a bit like broad bottoms in reverse(if you get my drift...!) they take some time to play out...

I’m watching the former 10990/11000ish YM resistance level test to see if it holds up as support…..however, Friday the 13th tomorrow…..they might take it down a bit further on a ‘stops’ run…....we've seen it all before......

 

[mombasa]

Hi TS,

Yes, I agree. The divergence is against the long term trend and is not showing on the weekly or monthly so I expect a drop of a few 100 points before a resumption of the upward trend. My stop is now at breakeven + a few points (11000) and I will let my position run and add to if the move progresses downwards.

First it has to break the hourly 200EMA and then my next target is the daily 20EMA at 10900.

Cheers.

 

[FetteredChinos]

…..however, Friday the 13th tomorrow…..they might take it down a bit further on a ‘stops’ run…....we've seen it all before......

worryingly enough (bearing in mind im still short) the majority of Friday 13ths are actually bullish.....

i'll see if i can find my old stats pack...

fc

 

[tradesmart]

Yes FC – it stopped it’s fall at a key S/R level to wait for the important Retail Sales/PPI data at 13.30gmt today which will likely dictate today’s trading, and of course, there might be the psychology of leaving on an ‘up’ note before the long MLK weekend…..Bond market closes early today at 19.00gmt which might help

A nice little PD on the 5min showing support at the current level, and maybe yesterday’s opening gap will be filled shortly.....

I hope that the ongoing short delivers Mom, however, the data will call the shots imho.....

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, futures largely unmoved either way... bit of a wiggle on the data, but nothing subtantial.

lets see what the "live" market holds for you mere mortals..

obviously i know it's going down lol

FC

 

[leovirgo]

U.S. December Producer Prices Rise 0.9%; Core Prices Up 0.1%

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. producer prices rose in December as businesses paid more for fuel, while costs excluding energy and food increased less than forecast.

Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.9 percent following a 0.7 percent decline in November. Core prices, which exclude fuel and food, increased 0.1 percent for a second month, limited by cheaper vehicles and computers. They were expected to rise 0.2 percent, based on the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Core producer prices rose 1.7 percent last year, less than the 2.3 percent rise in 2004, suggesting businesses weren't able to fully pass along higher costs for energy and other raw materials. Federal Reserve policy makers have signaled they're closer to an end in a series of interest rate increases to stamp out inflation

 

[FetteredChinos]

bulls fighting to support 950...

have they got the power to defend it?

fc

 

[mombasa]

10,950 is the hourly 200EMA - price hasn't closed below that. If it does, I'll be adding to my short.

 

[FetteredChinos]

grrr, 950 proving problematic yet again..

currently an 80 point range on the Dow this week..

unbelievable..

its like watching custard...