Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[arabianights]

where are the pnl figures?

 

[HowardCohodas]

where are the pnl figures?

A few posts back I gave you the timetable of bringing my trading results up to date and posting them here.

 

[DashRiprock]

A few posts back I gave you the timetable of bringing my trading results up to date and posting them here.

that was on the 15th, where the SPX closed at 1281 and the VIX closed at 24.32, where you reported your month-to-date P&L as +0.54%. Since then, the SPX has printed a low of 1249 and the VIX has spiked to 31.28.

 

[HowardCohodas]

that was on the 15th, where the SPX closed at 1281 and the VIX closed at 24.32, where you reported your month-to-date P&L as +0.54%. Since then, the SPX has printed a low of 1249 and the VIX has spiked to 31.28.

And your point is?

 

[arabianights]

Ok, I see your post now and appreciate it would be unreasonable for you to give a full update. Nevertheless, how about a vague clue? 5%? -5%? -30%?

 

[HowardCohodas]

Ok, I see your post now and appreciate it would be unreasonable for you to give a full update. Nevertheless, how about a vague clue? -5%?

Down about 8% if the remainder of the day plays out as expected.

 

[arabianights]

Thanks,

Not all that bad, considering

 

[arabianights]

(although the important question: did you expect to lose more or less in these conditions?)

 

[DashRiprock]

what was it at its worst, what has your max drawdown been?

 

[DashRiprock]

another interesting question is what proportion of your P&L is due to changes in spot and how much is attributable to changes in vols?

 

[HowardCohodas]

(although the important question: did you expect to lose more or less in these conditions?)

This went as I planned except that the plan could not be properly executed because of poor planning on my part.

I should have lost less. I did not build my cash reserves up fast enough (as I was in the process of doing) so that my circuit breaker could not fire properly. I had to unwind other spreads to generate the cash. This let one of the spreads speed past my trigger point. That hurt. Lesson learned.

 

[Pazienza]

Among those with whom I enjoy spending time, it is considered polite that people be called by the name that they themselves have chosen.

I'm sorry Howie.

Howie, I hope you can forgive me.

And Howie, I can assure you that I will try harder in future. Don't worry about that Howie.

Do those with whom you enjoy spending time also consider it polite to charge for teaching despite knowing nothing about the subject?

 

[HowardCohodas]

Do those with whom you enjoy spending time also consider it polite to charge for teaching despite knowing nothing about the subject?

When you can point the readers to a journal of yours, then your comments might have some credibility.

 

[Pazienza]

When you can point the readers to a journal of yours, then your comments might have some credibility.

That really doesn't make any sense Howie.

 

[DionysusToast]

Seems Howard claims he's lost 8%. Now all that remains to be seen is the discussion on what this 8% is based on.

He has 20% of his pot allocated to this strategy.
The strategy returns 10% per month of 'risk capital'. No simple method of returns calculation for HC. Obfuscation is the name of the game. So....

Let's presume a $100k total portfolio.
- $20k allocated to spreads.
- $2k per month revenue from the spread strategy.
- R:R is average 25:1 on any individual spread trade.

So - is the 8% loss based on his total portfolio or on the 20% he allocates to the strategy or the $2k a month he makes? Which is more likely?

Given the R:R, I'd say most likely is he's done 8% of the $100k as opposed to 8% of the $20k. I'd also say there's a high chance that Howard is being economical with the truth over his losses. As a minumum let's consider it $8k of his $20k pot allocated to this strategy.

I should have lost less. I did not build my cash reserves up fast enough (as I was in the process of doing) so that my circuit breaker could not fire properly. I had to unwind other spreads to generate the cash. This let one of the spreads speed past my trigger point. That hurt. Lesson learned.

So this does show that he is 100% invested in spreads at any one time and that he had insufficient funds to unwind the position. Still, it is interesting that he has other (profitable) spreads to unwind considering the **** just fell out of the market.

Howard is licking his wounds on here and telling people they aren't worthy of replies if they don't have their own journals. Under pressure his persona breaks down somewhat and a mean streak shows itself.

My sympathies to his students.
Karma 1 - HC $0

 

[Pazienza]

Howie,

You have exactly the same problems wherever you go. A post from ET:

Since that 20% is on capital at risk it is actually low return.
If you have proper money management (rule of thumb, risk 1% of your account per trade for example) then your actual return is 0,2% over 60 days.

By your measure, a trend following strategy for instance with a modest 1:3 has a "return" of 200% for each succesful trade. Ten times higher than the IC return.
Of course, since market participants are smart and mostly efficient all of this is priced in the market. And consequently the probability of a winning trade is lower with the trend following strategy.

Ps. that is why we usually report risk-adjusted returns so that we all have a basis for comparison. I would encourage you to do so.

And the next post:

I wonder how you could get positive expectancy when you're not aware of the basics.

 

[Pazienza]

Howie, is it any wonder that people can't take you seriously?

You need to understand that options and spreads are instruments. They are tools to achieve your goal.

An IC is not a strategy. It is a tool.

The IC tool allows you to play IV. The source of your positive expectancy comes from better forecasting IV than the market, not from the IC itself.
By simply selling or buying an IC you're entitled to nothing except zero expectancy minus costs.

Ninna

Howie replies:

My portfolio is hugely Theta positive. Why does this not contribute to positive expectancy?

Because theta is priced in, obviously.

I think that you need to learn alot about options...

Ninna

 

[JRP2891]

Howard, after reading everything presented, even with my layman's knowledge of options (like yourself) it is plain to see you don't know what you're talking about, or have any kind of edge for that matter. You'd be much better off in admitting you're wrong and giving back your fraudulently won vendor fees, even if it means having to dump your portfolio.

 

[DashRiprock]

I just tested it it still works

LOL I'm so excited!

 

[Pazienza]

I just tested it it still works

LOL I'm so excited!

Flapping flap flap!