Watch ATN...

[Riz]

Atlantic Telecom: hammered down from 1190 last Feb. to 95 at the beginning of the year...if the rumours together with positive sentiment and tech uptrend in general carry on for a while, they might climb up to the next resistance level of 127 which I think might easily be broken pushing the upwards movement to 170 and more...

One positive news which at the moment is only a rumour is that Marconi might be looking to increase its 18.7 per cent stake, first acquired for £166 million in late 1999 (see todays Time-Rumour of the Day)...

It looks to me like ATN is making right moves to recovery and is doing well in Germany with its ADSL lines..

ATN does look worth watching...keep an eye on them..I got in a couple of days ago at 106 by the way...

rizgar

 

[traderx]

Rizgar, you could be right, massive volume spike on ATN Friday 19/1/01. I think something could be happening. Has been a DOG for a long time but sooner or later it will break to the upside. Need to watch it closely on monday. There was a broker downgrade from HSBC from £3.50 to 95p this week. For me, that is a highly suspicious development, usually designed IMHO to keep investors out of the stock so the up move can take place at minimum cost. We will have to wait and see on monday but you are absolutely right to alert members. Well done mate.


Tx

[Edited by traderx on 21-01-2001 at 02:59 PM]

 

[shelman]

I'll be watching very closely, having missed out on Friday.
Steve

 

[Riz]

bucked the trend..

up +3 to 113 bucking the trend today saying it was cutting 350 jobs under a restructuring programme which would save it £30m next year.

[Edited by rizgar on 22-01-2001 at 10:52 PM]

 

[traderx]

Having printed off the full 9 page statement from ATN today, it read more like a company in distress than a company announcing a new strategy. To cut 350 staff from a workforce of 1100 ish does not seem credible. The board claim they will do this by reducing the emphasis on residential connections, whilst increasing staff to concentrate on business customers. There can be no doubt ATN will be one of the leaders in Europe but I am not sure when it will be reflected in the share price. I was not sufficiently convinced to buy these shares today. The share came off its highs (predictable) to lock in some buyers. I still think there is weakness in this share, possibly a stock overhang. It always meets resistance at about £1.15 and backs off. If the share looked like closing above that level then it would be a safer bet. It simply does not perform like, for example KCOM. I watched the trades today on ADVFN, not much evidence of institutional interest, although that could happen in days to come. I wish this share would perform but I think the MM is paranoid about marking the share up for fear of giving anything away. This may be illogical but why then has the share stayed in the dolldrums for so long when news flow re Vodophone deal and roll out in Holland and Germany ahead of target has had absolutely no effect. I am certain if you bought 10,000 shares today and held, they would be worth £100k in 5 years from now. THE PROBLEM TODAY WITH ATN IS THE LACK OF A PROFIT, THINGS GOT MUCH WORSE AT LAST REPORTING. More significantly, and I think this counts, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A PROFIT UNTIL 2006. . It is almost as bad as DUC. Be careful with this one. Its a TELECOM and sentiment just got worse after the reduced price on Orange IPO today. Having said all that I hope it goes north so we can all make some dosh. Like you say Riz, one to watch closely.

No financial advice intended.

Tx

 

[Riz]

Hi Tx..

ATN went up +4.5 to 116.5 today..

I've been watching them intraday for over a week now..I am already in a nice profit as I bought cfds...only it looks to me like atn might just do much better..till late afternoon today there was a 50k sell order at 117 which would send the price back as soon as touched..offer price is just there now and the 50k has gone...keep watching tomorrow might make a difference...good luck

rizgar

PS: Even ABN Amro reiterated buy stance:

"In summary Atlantic is moving more quickly to its goal of a superior position in serving the SME market, mostly by DSL. The main concern for investors recently has been funding (although Atlantic has more than enough cash for this year plus around £36m in escrowed interest payments and about £100m in vendor financing) but this should ease with the savings to be achieved by the restructure.

However, the suggestion that it may commit funds to UK DSL rollout, given the present uncertain albeit improving UK ULL framework, will test many investors despite early positional success in Germany."

also

"The DSL/SME opportunity is far from certain. Demand signals are patchy so far, even in the SME market, costs are uncertain and in the UK probably too high and there are too many players looking to pursue the opportunity for them all to achieve success. Of all altnets, Atlantic Telecom, however, seems to have the best claim to prospective gains. It is one of two DSL altnets in German achieving national coverage, has extended this to Holland and considers it can build a good footprint in the UK. Unlike many other
potential players it now has no other operations to rely on for substantial value growth, so all of its resources talent and expertise can be brought to bear on this. If will retain the option to return to FRA if the UK ULL opportunity does not emerge economically.

If there is a way for investors to play the risky SME/DSL opportunity, this is it: focus the risk and reward. Germany is the key market, rather than the UK and Atlantic is wel
placed here. Although it may be some while before Atlantic shows it can achieve a good return, when it does it will strongly propel shareprice. It means altnet investors should
watch Atlantic Telecom through the year, particularly in the second half, for signs of SME/DSL customer numbers and initial DSL revenue.