Watch Marconi (MONI)

[Riz]

MONI the darling of day/swing traders with daily swings of 60-80 points…at 668 is not far from year low of 650…

MONI has sold its defence interests to BAE Systems and transformed itself into a telecoms company…about to sell its £400m stake in Alstom, the engineering group, as well as £300m holding in General Domestic Appliances, Britain's biggest white-goods maker…

Chief executive of Marconi Systems, Michael Donovan recently bought more than £300,000 worth of shares at 684…

It looks like it’s only the recent negative market sentiment holding MONI to jump over 800 around which it might establish the bottom of its new trade range…it’s certainly worth watching…

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar

 

[darth trader]

rizgar,

yes I agree, MONI is approaching support levels at the moment and could provide a good buying opportunity soon, but probably not yet.

For the present I am very wary. It may not yet have bottomed out as the RSI and MFI are still above the oversold zone. Moreover the telecoms sector is looking rather overbought as is the market too.

We had a good sell off in the market on Friday afternoon and have yet to play catch up with our american friends - the nasdaq took a real hammering on friday evening.

For the meantime I prefer being short on other telecoms.

Good luck in your trades.

 

[shelman]

Someone on the iii BB reckons there were rumours of a profit warning, mentioned in the Guardian.
I can't find anything in the web version, anybody know about this, or is it just bull as i suspect?
Steve

 

[Riz]

rumours/whispers..

Hi Steve,

I think it was this in Guardian:
"In the meantime, telecoms equipment maker Marconi slipped 28p to 668p after traders heard whispers that a profits warning is on the way"..

Positive comments in Sunday Times and Sunday Business however do not go with the whispers and come in support of moni..

cheers

rizgar

 

[MX]

MONI is my one of my favourite stocks but I have still got it as a short.

Moni is in a 6-month downtrend after making a series of lower peaks; today it broke and closed below support at 652 with next and major support not far away at around 630.
If this goes we would be looking very bearish. It does really need a strong rally to take it above 800 and close there for a few days to get it back on the up trend for me.

Saying that if the Naz turns up I will be jumping the Moni train asap this one flys with the slightest bit of good news.

Good luck Riz (you are the Man)

Cheers Jeff

 

[Sparky]

It seems as if a lot of traders are waiting for this share to find its bottom and bounce upward(unless you've been shorting for the last 6mths),traded vollume was around 9M above daily average again today.With MONI being recommended over the weekend in the press and todays newsflow I suppose that was to be expected,also I am sure that some are playing the percentage game and hedgeing that looking from a TA perspective a sound support level has been hit at todays price and the price must go up soon!As we are all aware to try to predict a price bottom is a dangerous game and it is important to wait for trend change conformation.
Some of the key indicators that I am interested in Moni at the moment are the RSI and the MACD.
The RSI has shown a divergance, since 29/11 - price making lower highs, RSI making higher lows.
The MACD has also shown divergance, 13/11/00 - 21/12/00 then making lower negative highs, possibly sugesting a trend reversal or the start of a consolidating channeling phase.Both of these indicators are showing bullish signals, add to this the possibility of a triple bottom and you can uderstand the erge to try to predict that we have hit the shares bottom.
Untill that triple bottom has been made and we have had 2 days of higher closes or even better a close above 716,then for me its one to have on your watchlist and monitor very closely.

 

[Madog]

Chartist Chris Chaitow

The Chartist Chris Chaitow on Chart of the Day (The Money Channel) was very bearish on Marconi last night. He said MONI was now a SELL since it looks to be falling through its recent support level.

Regards


Madog

 

[ChartMan]

I 've got MONI long term support @ 630 from NOV 99, and it's making a tripple bottom there right now.I know nothing is cast in stone, but if 630 is broken, good morning 512!!!!!
I agree with your divergence obs. Sparky. Let's hope TA's the way.

 

[titus-uk]

At 630 as I write......8M sells to 6M buys......could go either way here. A few big buys waiting to come in if it falls to 625-630. I fancy an intra-day fall to 625, and a close above 630!!
Cheers
Mark

 

[Riz]

Normally TA is not as effective as it can be in such market conditions...I'd therefore not be so spesific about precise support/resistance levels...I don't think the present situation will turn into a crash, so moni is going to bounce from somewhere around the current level..

rizgar

 

[shelman]

It looks pretty grim riz...sub 600...is the market overreacting, or is moni, like so many other stocks, very much overvalued.
Steve

 

[Riz]

Well Steve..this has turned into a hard call for me too..but I do believe that if there are drastically oversold shares, the first 2 should be MONI and CW...

Unlike most others I don't think MONI is going to tank and therefore holding with a view to topping up at the first sign of market turn over which I believe is not far..

Keep in mind that Nasdaq is exactly at the point where we started the new year and we all know it shot up from there causing a gap and making the analysts murmuring that the gap had to be filled, a correction that is, well it occurred to the exact point...

The problem with the US markets is that they either focus on the bad news or the good...I haven't seen them focusing on both at the same time for a while..this of course ends up in uncertainty which is the most bearish sentiment...I now think with having focused on each in consequent periods it is time they can see all factors at the same time and I can see such signs in analysts comments regarding the current downtrend...

Finally I think the market consolidated in a bottoming and basing trend before the start of a more bullish period.. each recent pullback took more of investors' hope away...they've started believing that stocks won't come back (as is the sentiment on this BB, our people virtually stopped writing about shares )...to me that is the way the best bottoms are formed and we're not far from that point...

Another thing preventing the market from gaining spirit is the lack of news regarding the US economy...this also adds to the uncertainty I keep mentioning..

However we'll have Alan Greenspan's evidence on the US economy on tuesday...he may inspire the market once again if the hints are positive...I am sure most investors will be tuning to his evidence...

good luck

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar

 

[darth trader]

this thread seems rather quiet?!

MONI gapped down today and formed a hammer.
The american market is closed on Monday so I don't expect any real action 'til tuesday pm. But is this an exhaustion gap signifiying recovery or a just plain bad news?

 

[Uncle]

Rated today a BUY by Teather & Greenwood

 

[Max Damage]

Bought in today at 537p. Hope not too early but if wrong at this price the long term will make it a good buy I'm sure

 

[Riz]

moni will jump back up..I have no doubt about that..

Ignore the gap formed today..it will be filled the first thing when the Nasdaq settles as moni proved yesterday that it's still cable of big bounces...today's unusually huge volume needs to be noted: 66.9m (almost four times the average of revent daily volume...more buys then sells according to advfn)...looks like 2 directors have followed Max: Sir Rogern Hurn and Lord Simpson have announced the purchase of 20,000 shares at £5.44...sending a message obviously..

Just read an article from citywire summarising moni's current situation..can't see anything in support of a possible profit warning that has been rumoured for a while...wonder if it's just innocent rumours circulating or another manipulation about the sort of which I wrote a quite long post in CI BB..shame we can't get the archives worth reposting..

"...Marconi’s share price (MNI) has dived today, closing down 50p at 553p. This leaves it at well below half its highest value of last year, £12.50 registered in September.

In November Marconi produced encouraging interim figures - pre-tax profit was up 26% at £320 million and turnover also leaped by 26% to £3.19 billion. The company predicted that it would be able to sustain this strong growth, with orders standing at £6 billion.

Since the turn of the year Marconi has announced it is following the trend set in its sector for outsourcing by selling off its equipment production facilities for $390 million (£270 million) to Jabil Circuit, a US company. The companies also sealed an agreement for Jabil to supply Marconi for three years for around $4 billion.

Last week Marconi and the French telecoms equipment supplier Alcatel announced they were to raise €1.8 billion (£1.14 billion) between them by selling a 33% stake in the French transport and power engineering company Alstom. Marconi also announced this week it is to invest $300 million in US company ArrayComm, which is developing a device to allow wireless carriers to provide an improved service to more customers."

I haven't sold any of my holdings just kept topping..as I suggested in my earlier posts..

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar

P.S: I think we should keep discussing shares on our watch lists...this doom and gloom sentiment is temporary and we're just about to see the end of it..so lets stop feeling down and get prepared for the following bounces...starting with Nasdaq studies I'd say...


[Edited by rizgar on 17-02-2001 at 04:22 PM]

 

[shelman]

I think we can place this alongside ARM in terms of value at the min Riz.
Both seem to have found solid support and as such i have increased my stake.
Good luck
Steve

 

[Riz]

420 clicks not bad for moni...

Certainly Steve...just realized there's been 420 clicks on this thread..shows how popular MONI is on this BB too..

good luck

rizgar

 

[Uncle]

Riz...Not so sure about its popularity.........think it has been more in hope !!!!

However with that said, I feel confident about it to have a crack next week subject to the general climate.

John