Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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Dentalfloss
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bond blletin from carley garner
Oversold, but doesn't matter
The highly anticipated reopening of $19 billion in 10-year notes went off at a pricey 3.99% and a 2.62 bid to cover. Bond and notes were heavily offered on the news putting each of the futures contracts at levels not seen since November of last year. The markets will be tested again tomorrow with the reopening of $11 billion in 30-year bonds which hasn't had strong showings in the previous two occasions.
Traders note that even in the midst of quick price action, the trading volume isn't impressive. However, that may change in the coming sessions and investors will be tempted to put money to work in Treasuries. The 4% mark on the benchmark 10-year note has been a key pivot point throughout the most recent twelve months and we don't expect things to be any different now. At some point (maybe not today or tomorrow, but soon) investors will begin to notice the value that Treasuries offer. While 4% isn't a "gravy train" it isn't bad and it is nearly guaranteed.
It was pointed out to me that the Fed no longer refers to its Treasury buying program as "quantitative easing". Most likely because they have come to the realization that it would be dangerously expensive to purchase enough of their own securities to actually cap yields. Nonetheless, they are at least making the bears think twice about getting too comfortable.
The buck has managed to keep most of the gains forged last week, but Treasury traders have yet to respond. Chatter of the Chinese pulling out of the dollar, and more importantly dollar backed assets, have prevented correlation between bonds and the greenback. If the U.S. dollar index breaks through resistance near 80.55, the June futures could be on their way to 83. If this is the case, bonds and notes should find a floor.
For those of you with the short T-Bond puts, that turned into a strangle...and has undergone many adjustments in between; we are looking to roll the 112 puts into the 110 puts in order to put the trade into a nearly delta neutral position going into the auctions today and tomorrow. We paid 41 ticks to do it, but have managed to collect enough premium around the primary position to keep the overall trade as a nice credit...now we just have to keep it.
This turned out to be a much more intensive trade than we anticipated and has undergone many different faces in order to salvage time value and allow for profitability. It seems as though barring any large volatility moves, this may be the final necessary adjustment and after what seems like an eternity of sleepless nights, the trade seems to be in a position to actually be profitable. Let's see if the market will cooperate.
Also, I realize that many of you have alternatives to the positions that we do (as displayed below) if you have any questions or need ideas, I am here for you.
We are looking for support in the 30-year bond near 112'07 then again at 111'20. The 10-year note should hold above 112'18 even in the case of an auction gone bad.
Oversold, but doesn't matter
The highly anticipated reopening of $19 billion in 10-year notes went off at a pricey 3.99% and a 2.62 bid to cover. Bond and notes were heavily offered on the news putting each of the futures contracts at levels not seen since November of last year. The markets will be tested again tomorrow with the reopening of $11 billion in 30-year bonds which hasn't had strong showings in the previous two occasions.
Traders note that even in the midst of quick price action, the trading volume isn't impressive. However, that may change in the coming sessions and investors will be tempted to put money to work in Treasuries. The 4% mark on the benchmark 10-year note has been a key pivot point throughout the most recent twelve months and we don't expect things to be any different now. At some point (maybe not today or tomorrow, but soon) investors will begin to notice the value that Treasuries offer. While 4% isn't a "gravy train" it isn't bad and it is nearly guaranteed.
It was pointed out to me that the Fed no longer refers to its Treasury buying program as "quantitative easing". Most likely because they have come to the realization that it would be dangerously expensive to purchase enough of their own securities to actually cap yields. Nonetheless, they are at least making the bears think twice about getting too comfortable.
The buck has managed to keep most of the gains forged last week, but Treasury traders have yet to respond. Chatter of the Chinese pulling out of the dollar, and more importantly dollar backed assets, have prevented correlation between bonds and the greenback. If the U.S. dollar index breaks through resistance near 80.55, the June futures could be on their way to 83. If this is the case, bonds and notes should find a floor.
For those of you with the short T-Bond puts, that turned into a strangle...and has undergone many adjustments in between; we are looking to roll the 112 puts into the 110 puts in order to put the trade into a nearly delta neutral position going into the auctions today and tomorrow. We paid 41 ticks to do it, but have managed to collect enough premium around the primary position to keep the overall trade as a nice credit...now we just have to keep it.
This turned out to be a much more intensive trade than we anticipated and has undergone many different faces in order to salvage time value and allow for profitability. It seems as though barring any large volatility moves, this may be the final necessary adjustment and after what seems like an eternity of sleepless nights, the trade seems to be in a position to actually be profitable. Let's see if the market will cooperate.
Also, I realize that many of you have alternatives to the positions that we do (as displayed below) if you have any questions or need ideas, I am here for you.
We are looking for support in the 30-year bond near 112'07 then again at 111'20. The 10-year note should hold above 112'18 even in the case of an auction gone bad.
SuddenDeath
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good morning everyone, 1.30pm today US retail sales.
wallstreet1928
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Good morning Indeed
I am more interested in the 30 yr auction
InTheMoneyStocks - Economic and Earning Alerts
I am more interested in the 30 yr auction
InTheMoneyStocks - Economic and Earning Alerts
wallstreet1928
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kaisen
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Good to hear that it didnt turn out too bad! Could have been much worse! I am still interesting, from a newbie learning point of view, what your analysis or rational for the trades was?
Best of luck for today!
kaisen
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well done ws! combo of good analysis and nice people who all seem interested to learn and help each other! nice place to be!
All the best
Morning all
Newbie here, just wanted to gather peoples thoughts on the ftse today? we have seen a good sell off at the open and are now bouncing back towards the open price any ideas on where we will head today and important levels to watch out for? or will it be a bit of sideways action like mentioned above until we get news from the states?
Newbie here, just wanted to gather peoples thoughts on the ftse today? we have seen a good sell off at the open and are now bouncing back towards the open price any ideas on where we will head today and important levels to watch out for? or will it be a bit of sideways action like mentioned above until we get news from the states?
Yep, mine are fine.
fraggermcg
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Not working in firefox for me, but fine in Internet Explorer.
Mine wouldnt load with Mozilla Firefox, but seems to be loading ok with Exploer 8.
Restart, check your java settings on internet options. Failing that, call IG chart support! (their number is on the overview button top left of puredeal platform)
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