Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[marketdynamics]

Chart Of The Day: Baltic Dry Index Revisited

Interesting article indicating fall on commodities stock. BALTIC DRY INDEX has fallen 46% since its peak this year

 

[dr.blix]

short E$ from 771

stop to BE

stopped out at BE by a fraction of a pip, then reversed and already would be 30 pips up...

thats' life...now 40 pips

 

[Chelski]

Here's how i arrived at my trade.

1. Tweezer top
2. Divergence
3. Failure at yesterdays close
4. Bounce of 20MA
5. With Longer term trend.

 

[Da.DesiTrader]

What spooked FTSE?

 

[Geofract]

short E$ @ 713

Nice price there Sir. Blixalot! Are you scalping fib levels by chance?

 

[kaisen]

short E$ from 771

stop to BE

stopped out at BE by a fraction of a pip, then reversed and already would be 30 pips up...

thats' life

Hey Dr B! I did the same trade. I was short E $ from 14775 moved my stop to +5 pips when it was 14759 and like you say it turned around and spat us both out before going where i thought we were going!

BTW I am short FTSE 5106 stop at BE - I was going to short the DAX as it seems weaker (entry would have been 5612 and now look where it is!
Come FTSE catch up!

Hey ho! Time and time again.

 

[lapalabra]

What spooked FTSE?

Check your calendar at the beginning of every day.

US Home starts.

Go E$ go!

(blixy, if you had come over to the dark side with me and Geo we wouldn't have let you exit your E$ short - you had a better entry than mine from 14685. And we have an attractive package on healthcare and paternal leave benefits too.)

 

[dr.blix]

Nice price there Sir. Blixalot! Are you scalping fib levels by chance?

mate, my last two trades encapsulate why i can't do this properly.

i'm using fibs as a rough guide, then channels, then stochastic oversold/bought on different TF's.

i opened 2 shorts.

first 713 short i closed at a poss moveup as i wanted something from the trade and feared a test of the upper channel...it reversed as soon as i closed. i took 16 pips, it went on to do 40.

my next short i opened at 671, moved my stop to BE, it touched the stop then immediately dropped fo another 40 pips.

2 trades = 16 pips instead of 80.

 

[lapalabra]

Hey Dr B! I did the same trade. I was short E $ from 14775 moved my stop to +5 pips when it was 14759 and like you say it turned around and spat us both out before going where i thought we were going!

BTW I am short FTSE 5106 stop at BE - I was going to short the DAX as it seems weaker (entry would have been 5612 and now look where it is!
Come FTSE catch up!

Hey ho! Time and time again.

Kaisen, sorry I haven't seen you for a while only glance at the boards hadn't seen your posts (how could I miss your signature, I know I know)

Hope you're doing well, and that was a really nice near-top entry on E$!

 

[pentlow1]

What spooked FTSE?

In the nicest way you should have been aware of US durable goods orders out at 1.30pm, which were below estimates.

 

[kaisen]

Hey Dr B! I did the same trade. I was short E $ from 14775 moved my stop to +5 pips when it was 14759 and like you say it turned around and spat us both out before going where i thought we were going!

BTW I am short FTSE 5106 stop at BE - I was going to short the DAX as it seems weaker (entry would have been 5612 and now look where it is!
Come FTSE catch up!

Hey ho! Time and time again.

What with Hercules today? I mean FTSE strength?

 

[Geofract]

... And we have an attractive package on healthcare and paternal leave benefits too.)

LOL! I didn't know about that?!

 

[Geofract]

mate, my last two trades encapsulate why i can't do this properly.

i'm using fibs as a rough guide, then channels, then stochastic oversold/bought on different TF's.

i opened 2 shorts.

first 713 short i closed at a poss moveup as i wanted something from the trade and feared a test of the upper channel...it reversed as soon as i closed. i took 16 pips, it went on to do 40.

my next short i opened at 671, moved my stop to BE, it touched the stop then immediately dropped fo another 40 pips.

2 trades = 16 pips instead of 80.

You took 16 pips more than me mate! I had lined up three possible setups for A$ E$ and Swissy$, but decided i wouldn't take any of them, because I didn't like the look of them... genius, really, as they were all good setups! Trade what you see, not what you think! It's just easier said than done though!

 

[kaisen]

Kaisen, sorry I haven't seen you for a while only glance at the boards hadn't seen your posts (how could I miss your signature, I know I know)

Hope you're doing well, and that was a really nice near-top entry on E$!

Hey LL, I have been in the wilderness to find myself (and studying and looking at things like a mad man)
If things pan out I will let you know any positives my friend.

Was ready to shoot myself yesterday - missed my entry bang on the nose on the FTSE and missed a 75pnts move!

Trying to work to new rules and control emotions now!

 

[Da.DesiTrader]

I thought Technical traders dont give a toss about fundamentals. Also, the market so far has been going up on negative news. What happened now? Anyway I got stopped out at B/E *sigh*

 

[Manya1983]

me me me me me meeeeee....

Ok, drop me your details via PM and I'll give them your name. The iPod shuffle is yours!

 

[dr.blix]

(blixy, if you had come over to the dark side with me and Geo we wouldn't have let you exit your E$ short - you had a better entry than mine from 14685. And we have an attractive package on healthcare and paternal leave benefits too.)

haha...lapster i'm downloading skype as i type...i'm still not going to join you fellas though until i have a grasp of bias, i'm already the least TA savvy of you both and i don't want to be the laggard.

soon as i sort PN's basic bias stuff i'm there, then i may feel i can be a more relevant participant in what is your pirate raiding pippage adventure.

 

[lapalabra]

mate, my last two trades encapsulate why i can't do this properly.

i'm using fibs as a rough guide, then channels, then stochastic oversold/bought on different TF's.

i opened 2 shorts.

first 713 short i closed at a poss moveup as i wanted something from the trade and feared a test of the upper channel...it reversed as soon as i closed. i took 16 pips, it went on to do 40.

my next short i opened at 671, moved my stop to BE, i touched the stop then immediately dropped fo another 40 pips.

2 trades = 16 pips instead of 80.

Geo and I call that a DTD exit ('Due To Doubt'). It don't hold no water partner! If it makes you feel any better, have a look at AUDJPY - exact same thing (stop being hit once in break even) happened to me @ 7873 this morning (bias change entry after 50% fib @ 7883)

So that's +80 pips on that pair I could have bagged now and counting...so I know the gutting feeling...

On a practical level, all I can suggest is that you keep the original s/l position - even if it means risking a reversal. The s/l should be at a point which forms the basis for the trade - you have to think to yourself, if the trade succeeds then even if price returns past my entry point, thats fine. If it hits the stop, then the trade is a failure. But the success on the next trade when it comes will pay for it and more.

If you move your stop to b/e, you are essentially robbing yourself of one of your winners if price comes back. It could go on and youve saved yourself a loser, but then, if your winners give you more than your losers (and they should), then which would you rather risk keeping your initial stop loss for?

Either that or getting to zero risk and scaling out 75% at 2x your stop once in the black, something else entirely and what i am leaning towards doing.

 

[spreadbett]

Sorry for the newbie question, but how did you guys get the news on durable goods quickly enough to take advantage of the short? Or was it based on unofficial news before the report?

 

[lapalabra]

haha...lapster i'm downloading skype as i type...i'm still not going to join you fellas though until i have a grasp of bias, i'm already the least TA savvy of you both and i don't want to be the laggard.

soon as i sort PN's basic bias stuff i'm there, then i may feel i can be a more relevant participant in what is your pirate raiding pippage adventure.

Arrrr me hearties....

Geo runs a tight ship. He's the captain. I scrub the floors and feed the parrot.

The hours can be unsocial - although profitable, if you have a look at EURJPY midnight last night you can see why

We're all learning mate, don't leave it too long.