Chart Analysis + The Manipulation Factor
As the dollar headed south over the last 6 months, many wondered if it was about to collapse. Hedge funds, mutual fund managers, individual traders and investors had and are still short the dollar. The rally since March has coincided directly with the fall in the dollar. The yearly highs on the dollar were made in the first week of March and sure enough, the low of 666 on the S&P was also hit in the first week of March. Clearly, the rally has been a re inflation rally but there are other factors at work. The Federal Reserve has been a direct culprit of weakening the dollar. Believe it or not the dollar's drop was an obvious method of the Federal Reserve and possibly the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to stop the markets from collapsing.
While technical analysis provides us with almost every major and minor move of the markets, oil, gold and the US Dollar, common analysis of motives of the Federal Reserve must also be analyzed. This adds a new dimension to confirm and solidify the technicals. We all know the Federal Reserve has been printing money, trillions in fact. Money to buy bonds, bailout banks, stimulus packages and more. However, it goes even deeper. Ever since the run up in the markets dating back to 2006 to 2007, oil stocks and other commodities have been added to the S&P 500. The weighting has increased more and more. This has made it so the market's overall are tied extremely tightly to the price of oil and other commodities. Therefore, the price of commodities is directly related to the levels of the S&P and other indexes. To manipulate the price of commodities higher would have a direct bailout effect on the markets. When oil is higher, the markets are higher.
Knowing this, it is no wonder that when the dollar topped out in March, the markets also bottomed. The Federal Reserve has a direct impact on the dollar. They are the printers or the money tree of the markets and the United States. This, alongside the bailouts and stimulus packages (which are both dilutive and cause the markets to drop) were bullets in their gun to help the markets regain their strength.
The problem is, it is a double edged sword. While causing the dollar to fall in the near term has helped the markets regain their mojo, it can have very detrimental effects. Our country is financed by other countries as they buy our debt. This is seen in the form of bond auctions where the interest paid is on the rise. If the dollar is losing value rapidly, other countries do not want to buy our debt. This is mainly due to the fact that in 10 years, 20 years or 30 years, these countries expect the dollar to be valued much lower based on the current drop priced out over those longer time periods. The only way they will buy the debt is if a higher interest rate is paid making up for the dollar's drop plus a profit. So, while a dropping dollar is great for the markets in the near term, if the money flow is turned off, we could spiral into a new liquidity problem even worse than what we saw in late 2008 and early 2009.
Now looking closely at the dollar recently, InTheMoneyStocks Chief Market Strategists saw a major technical support level on the dollar. On the UUP (dollar ETF) it was at $23.00-$23.05. This happened to be a major pivot from 2008. Closer calculations revealed it was a monstrous support level and cycle level as well. While this was a dead on indicator that the dollar was about to bounce, the Manipulation Factor confirmed it. What was this manipulation factor? As the dollar approached the major 2008 support level, Chief Market Strategists also realized that in the coming days there was a 3 year, 10 year and 30 year auction. There was no way the Federal Reserve was going to let the dollar continue to collapse into this auction. Why not? Because foreign countries, our debt buyers would be less inclined to bid on it in a free fall. In other words, push the dollar higher into the auctions to increase the likelihood of buyers willing to purchase the bonds for a lower interest rate.
Sure enough the dollar rallied on the InTheMoneyStocks call. This new factor, the Manipulation Factor must be used in conjunction with technical analysis. It is a great confirming indicator and can truly help one make profits. Look at the bigger picture; it was clear as a bell in this case.
Learn the game. Nothing is as it seems but a well educated investor can be aware and avoid the traps even profiting from the Manipulation Indicator.
By Gareth Soloway,
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
The Leader In Market Technical Guidance
