Walid Salah Eldin's Market Analysis

[deresel]

Next levels to watch for:

Eur/Usd:

Support: 1.0810; 1.0730;

Resistance: 1.0975; 1.1100; 1.1286;


Next levels to watch for:

GBP/USD:

Support: 1.4100; 1.3709; 1.3568;

Resistance: 1.4360; 1.4592;



Next levels to watch for:

USD/JPY:

Support: 110.000;

Resistance: 114.00; 116.00; 117.19;

 

[ycr258z]

The greenback could be boosted by US Q4 upward revision to 1% growth annually from only 0.7% preliminary reading, after growth by 2% in Q3 following expansion by 3.9% in the second quarter of last year.
The economic expansion deceleration to 1% in Q4 of last year could only lower the worries about the US economy but it cannot eliminate the fear of watching economic shrinking in the first quarter of this year which is depressed by harsh winter again could previously cause contraction in the first quarter of 2014 and 2015.
The comments which came out from the Fed's officials are all referring to adopting waiting and see stance for assessing the global economic slowdown and the financial development implications on the US economy.
While the inflation outlook in US is still sized by lower global economic expansion and lower oil prices preventing the Fed to be in rush for raising the interest rate to contain inflation upside risks.
In the same time, the US economy is still looking in need to the current Fed's accommodative stance at this level, after GDP annualized deceleration in the recent 3 quarters and manufacturing performance contraction in the recent 3 months because of the rising odds of raising the interest rate which supported the greenback from another side.
While the downside risks are mounting this quarter by continued economic deceleration in China and higher concerns about the financial situation of the banking sector amid the lower commodities and energy prices which caused depression in the mining sector.
Baker Hughes weekly report came by the end of last week to say that US Oil Rigs have fallen to only 400 which are less than third the working rigs number a year ago.
The report could tackle the oil prices progress by the end of last week weighing down on the risk appetite, as it could highlight the current lower need for digging for oil.

Last Friday Brent Apr. 16 could surpass its previous resistance at $36.75 which capped its rebound on last Jan. 28 but it came under pressure, after reaching $36.98 to go down for trading near $35.40 in the beginning hours of this new week.
Brent Apr. 16 daily RSI (14) is still in the neutral region reading 55.083 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in neutral area reading 67.222 and also its signal line which is reading now 62.793.
Brent Apr. 16 daily MACD (12, 26, 9) which is less sensitive to the volatility could have its main line above the zero line at 0.324, while its signal line is still in the negative region reading -0.016 now.
Brent Apr. 16 daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading now $30.84 in its eighth day of being below the trading rate which is still above its daily SMA20 and daily SMA50.

Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $33.56, Daily SMA50 @ $33.68, Daily SMA100 @ $39.63 and Daily SMA200 @ $47.24
S&R:
S1: $31.80
S2: $29.87
S3: $27.10
R1: $36.98
R2: $39.68
R3: $41.56

Have a good day

Kind Regards
Walid Salah El Din
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Thanks for this very informative information. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

Even Feb bullish US labor report could not tackle the gold

The gold could have a higher high reaching $1279.55 per ounce last Friday, despite the release of US Feb Labor report which painted an optimistic picture of the labor market by adding 242k jobs out the farming sector revising up Jan figure to +172K and Dec figure to +271K.
The report has shown that there was no negative impact yet of the global economic slowdown on the US economy and labor market.
After its meeting on Jan. 27, FOMC said that it is assessing currently the global economic slowdown and the financial development implications for the labor market, the inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.
So, the US treasuries yields could be boosted after last Friday labor data with lower demand for safe haven, higher trust in keeping US equities and also better interest rate outlook.
But the gold was still able to rise up to its highest rate since last year Feb. 3, after shortfall to $1250.06 following these data, as it has not been ready yet to lose much of its upside momentum it gained in the most recent weeks.
It is similar reaction to Jan labor report release which caused forming only a new higher low at $1145.30, before resuming its creeping up.
The gold was one of the most gainers of the lower interest rate outlook in US and the financial turmoil which hit the markets earlier this year because of the oil prices slide and Chinese economic deceleration which dampened the global economic outlook.
While PBOC raised its holdings by 0.9% to 57.18m ounces from 56.66m ounces in December a month earlier to follow Russia which boosted its holding of it by 17% to 45.5m ounces in 2015 to diversify their reserve with pressure on their currencies.
The pressure was not only of rubble and Yuan but also on the currencies of other emerging economies because of the higher interest rate outlook in US which boosted the greenback across the broad.
Technically, the gold has formed series of higher lows, after it had been exposed to correction to dive to $1190.63 but the existence below $1200 looked a good chance to the bargain hunter to reload the gold.
The gold could have another positive sign last week by surpassing its previous high at $1263.14 which has been reached on last Feb. 11, after containing its full falling from $1191.58 to $1046.08.
The gold is now above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for the third consecutive day, after surpassing $1263.14 reading today $1195.67.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in the neutral region but close to its overbought region above 70 reading now 68.389 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region at 74.653 close to its overbought area above 80 and also its signal line which is reading now 76.225.
The gold upside momentum rose significantly by getting over its daily SMA200 with crossing $1130, after surpassing its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA50.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1053.73, Daily SMA100 @ $1124.96 and Daily SMA200 @ $1133.06
S&R:
S1: $1250.06
S2: $1224.52
S3: $1210.72
R1: $1279.55
R2: $1285.32
R3: $1307.05

Have a good day

Kind Regards
Walid Salah El Din
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

 

[fxstrategist]

Gbpusd

The GBPUSD keeps a bullish trend, but pay attention to the 1.4300 level, because it may act as a resistance.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

It is getting closer to its SMA 50 days moving average but the upside momentum eased down paving for tuning down.
The pair next resisting level is 1.4309 and 1.4407
SMA 50 is running between them.
Have a good day
Take Care

 

[fxstrategist]

Gbpusd

The 1.4200 level could continue acting as a support on the GBPUSD, next resistance could be the 55 day EMA, around the 1.4353 level.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The cable is to be submitted to the Brexit news next By God's will.
Yesterday Carney's testimony was not going easy or snug.
He wanted to put BOE aside to be away from that issue to be political as much as it can be
but he did not deny the negative impact on GBP because of the Brexit
Take Care

 

[arigoldman]

Expecting a move upward soon.

 

[dianajs]

Me too, I think it will reach at least 1.4300.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

it is still with descending scale from 1.5238 and forming a new lower high is still possible.
It could not even get over its daily SMA 50 and there is no reliable higher low yet.
Take Care
Have a good day

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The turn is on the Fed to highlight the global economic downside risks

The ECB represented its new easing package last week for propping up inflation and supporting the EU economy versus the global economic downside risks.
But The ECB's president Mario Draghi liked to direct the markets further during the regular post-decision press conference by saying that the ECB would be moving away from interest rate cuts towards "unconventional" measures in the future adding that rates can go into unlimited negative territory to cap the expectations of using more interest rate cuts for supporting the economy.
The single currency reacted positively to his signal to rebound across the broad, after direct diving following the decisions of cutting the deposit rate by 0.1% to a new historical low at -0.4%, raising the pace of its QE buying from €60bn to €80bn a month and offering unlimited LTRO loans to banks for 4 years at near-zero cost to lower the pressure of cutting the interest rate on the banking sector.
From another side, the greenback came under pressure across the broad, as the markets participants lowered their expectations of watching new interest rate hikes in US soon and the turn is now on the Fed to refer to the negative impact of the global economic slowdown to signal longer waiting for the next tightening step, despite the US labor market continued improving.
The appetite of loading US equities could be boosted by these odds which weighed down on the demand for US treasuries in the same time driving its yields up by the end of last week ahead of this week new FOMC meeting.

EURUSD outlook improved by forming another bottom at 1.0824 above the trendline resistance extension from 1.3992 to 1.1712.
The pair daily RSI-14 is in the neutral region but close to the overbought area above 70 reading now 60.761, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in its overbought region above 80 reading now 85.802 keeping with its signal line which is reading now 83.856.
After last Thursday volatility the pair is now in its second day of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0820.
EURUSD bouncing up to 1.1216 is still placing it so far above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0996, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0915 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1043
S&R:
S1: 1.1079
S2: 1.1000
S3: 1.0824
R1: 1.1216
R2: 1.1375
R3: 1.1491

Have a good day

Kind Regards
Walid Salah El Din
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

 

[rosentray]

GBPUSD reached 1.4436 a few days ago and is currently trading at 1.4363. Main trend continues to be bullish with first support at 1.4300, first resistance 1.4440.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The market is to be possessed next by the FOMC meeting.
It is hard to watch excessive movements before this meeting which is expected to give the greenback a direction.
Take Care

 

[forker]

until the referendum, don't be surprised if you don't get much upward movement

 

[dianajs]

It found some resistance at 1.4380 and formed a doji candlestick there, so there might be some retracement to 1.4300 at least.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

Dark engulfed day candle, after overextended rising placed the cable in an overbought stance is not a signal to sell over the short term which became bullish, while the longer term is still pressing down on the cable.
It is a normal reflection to the current waiting stance for the FOMC
Take Care
Have a good day

 

[fxstrategist]

Gbpusd

The GBPUSD may try to visit the 1.4200 level, which could act as support. To the upside, the 1.4400 could be resistance.

 

[dianajs]

The GBPUSD may try to visit the 1.4200 level, which could act as support. To the upside, the 1.4400 could be resistance.

It broke below 1.4200. Next support level is at 1.4120.

 

[fxstrategist]

Gbpusd

Nice bearish momentum on the GBPUSD, the pair may try to reach the 1.4100 level, attention to a possible bounce from that level.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/USD lost a lot and is currently consolidating. I hope it find support and bounce off from here.