Walid Salah Eldin's Market Analysis

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil benchmarks came under pressure opening the new on downside gaps, after the beginning of implying the Iranian nuclear deal which should flood oversupplied market by another 0.5m barrels daily initially, before increasing to 1m barrels a day within 6 months, as the Iranian National Oil Co. has said.

The deal hurts the income of the other gulf rivals because this new pumped ample of oil to the market comes from the same region, as a real competitor to the productions of these nations which have been actually suffering from the Iranian interventions into the middle east Arabian regions.

The deal dampened Iran gulf rivals equities markets, as the lower oil prices form increasing pressure on their capital spending and also consuming spending causing harder financial conditions.

While the Chinese equities indexes are still undermining the risk appetite by their meltdown which resumed in the beginning of the new week, despite the recent taken action by PBOC to impose reserve ratio on offshore Yuan accounts to lower the speculations against the Chinese currency which has been hurt by increasing expectations of having lower interest rate to support the Chinese economy which is looking now for soft landing of its expansion pace by showing tomorrow growth by 6.8% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, after growth by 6.9% in the third quarter.

While the risks around the US economy are still looming with lower manufacturing performance, after Jan NY Empire State Manufacturing Index has shown falling to -19.37, while the consensus was referring to improving to -4 from -6.21 in December.

From another side, Dec US retails sales came also to weigh down on the US last session showing decreasing in December by 0.1%, while the market was waiting for no monthly change, after rising by 0.4% in November.


Walid Salah El din
Senior Market Analyst
Skype : chief.economist.walid
[email protected]
Tel: UK. +44 1138590277
Mob: EGY. +20 1224659143
Archive: http://www.trade-24.com/daily-analysis

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

USDJPY could find leeway to rise, after PBOC's decision

The risk aversion sentiment could boost demand for the Japanese yen, as this low cost financing currency usually gains benefits during the dovish market sentiment.

USDJPY has been exposed to increasing downside momentum by the end of last week to fall to 116.49 containing its full rebound from 116.67 which ended to having another lower high at 118.36.

The Japanese yen gains benefits from the Chinese Yuan suffering, as an Asian competitive reserve currency, while there is no signal yet from BOJ to take further easing steps.

So, USDJPY could rebound for trading now near 117.20 in the beginning of the new week following PBOC step to impose reserve ratio on offshore Yuan accounts.

USDJPY daily RSI is referring now to existence barely in its oversold area below 30 reading now 29.622, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility could have its main line in the neutral region coming up from its oversold area below 20 reading now 44.514 and also its signal line is reading now 46.578.

USDJPY daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading 118.27 in its day number 17 of consecutive being above the trading rate reflecting accumulating of the downside pressure on this pair.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 121.19, Daily SMA100 @ 120.73 and Daily SMA200 @ 121.50

S&R:

S1: 116.49
S2: 116.15
S3: 115.55
R1: 118.49
R2: 118.81
R3: 119.68

Walid Salah El din
Senior Market Analyst
Skype : chief.economist.walid
[email protected]
Tel: UK. +44 1138590277
Mob: EGY. +20 1224659143
Archive: http://www.trade-24.com/daily-analysis

To open your account at Trade-24 - Click here

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

S&P 500 spikes are still short lived

SP-MAR16 rose for trading near 1875, after being exposed to downside extension to 1849.25 following forming another lower high at 1927.25 below 1946.25 which has been its highest level last week, after Dec US labor report bullish release led merely to a spike to 1964.50, before retreating again.

SP-Mar16 daily RSI is referring now to existence barely in the neutral area coming from its oversold area below 30 reading 30.369 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral area reading 32.898 leading its signal line to come out too from the oversold region below 20 reading now 27.795.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 2030.48, Daily SMA100 @ 2008.22 and Daily SMA200 @ 2046.91

S&R:

S1: 1849.25
S2: 1830.50
S3: 1812.38
R1: 1964.50
R2: 1927.25
R3: 1964.50

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil prices came under increasing downside pressure on the Iranian deal

CL FEB 16 has fallen in the beginning of the new week to $28.36 per barrel, after failing to sustain any more above $30 level by the end of last week causing more stop buying orders triggering opening new range of trading below this psychological level.

After rebounding for trading near $29, CL FEB 16 daily RSI is still referring to existence in its oversold area below 30 reading now 22.901 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line in the oversold region below 20 reading now 19.739 with its signal line which is referring to this same area reading 18.259.

After implying the Iranian Nuclear deal, CL FEB 16 is now trading between the selling panic force and the need for correction to the upside at least for the principle of "buying on rumors selling on fact".


Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $34.35, Daily SMA50 @ $38.10, Daily SMA100 @ $42.07 and Daily SMA200 @ $48.11.

S&R:

S1: $28.36
S2: $26.71
S3: $25.04
R1: $32.19
R2: $34.30
R3: $36.35

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The cable is still looking for room to fix its oversold stance

The cable has been exposed to triggering more stops of buying orders with its retreating last Friday which led to breaking last Tuesday bottom 1.4350, before bringing down June 2010 supporting level at 1.4345 to maintain the relatively high falling pace which started following forming a top at 1.5238 on last Dec. 11, after forming a series of lower highs and also lower lows.

The cable resided for trading now near 1.4250, after finding hardly supporting level at 1.4235 to tackle its slide.

The cable daily RSI is into its oversold area below 30 reading now 18.569 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in deep place into its oversold area below 20 reading only 2.964 and also its signal line which is reading now 7.630 showing strong need for correcting to fix this oversold stance.

The cable daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is in its day number 24 of continued being above the trading rate reading today 1.4425.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.4913, Daily SMA100 @ 1.5118 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.5303

S&R:

S1: 1.4235
S2: 1.4228
S3: 1.4110
R1: 1.4321
R2: 1.4474
R3: 1.4643

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

DAX 30 is still depressed by forming lower highs

DAX30-MAR16 has formed another lower high at 10164 last Thursday below its Daily SMA50, after having lower high below its Daily SMA200 at 10881.25 following forming a top at 11432.25 on last Nov. 30.

DAX-Mar16 daily RSI is referring now to existence barely in the neutral area hovering above its oversold area below 30 reading 33.001 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having also its main line barely in the neutral area above the oversold area below 20 reading now 22.196 and also its signal line could come out from the oversold reading now 29.173.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 10629.63, Daily SMA100 @ 10389.56 and Daily SMA200 @ 10900.07

S&R:

S1: 9299.75
S2: 9229
S3: 9126
R1: 10164
R2: 10881.75
R3: 11432.25

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil is still in oversold stance with continued economic deceleration in China

The data came today from China to highlight economic deceleration, as the Chinese Q4 GDP has grown by 1.6% quarterly, while the consensus was referring to 1.7%, after growth by 1.8% in the third quarter with yearly expansion by 6.8% as expected, after 6.9% in the third quarter.

Urban investment in China increased by 10%, while the market was waiting for increasing by 10.2% as the same as November.

The retail sales rose in China last December by 11.1% yearly vs. 11.3% expected, after 11.2% in November and also the industrial production in December rose by 5.9% y/y and the foreseen was 6%, after increasing by 6.2% in November.

The Asian bourses are trading in a mixed way, after absence of the US major stocks indexes in the first day of this week because of Martin Luther King Birthday holiday, while their future rates are referring to improving, after last Friday excessive selling.

It's important today to wait for the inflation data which will come from UK, Germany and EU generally, as key figures to the next steps of MPC and ECB which are watching tame inflation pressure with continued retreating of the energy prices.


After the beginning of implying the Iranian nuclear pact, Brent Mar. 16 has been exposed to increasing downside momentum in the beginning of this week which opened on a downside gap at $28.23, before having extension to $27.98.

The oil prices have been already under pressure because of continued worries about the demand solidarity because of the economic slowdown signs from china and the weaker than expected manufacturing performance in US last month with US crude inventories hovering above 480m barrels currently.

Brent Mar. 16 capitalization on the Iranian Saudi tension in the beginning day of this year was to form merely a peak at $38.97 just above its daily SMA20, before retreating acceleration led its daily RSI to have continued existence into its oversold area below 30 reading now 22.884 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in into its oversold area below 20 reading 15.997 and also its signal line which is reading now 15.287, despite the rebounding for trading near $29 currently.


Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $34.22, Daily SMA50 @ $39.41, Daily SMA100 @ $44.28 and Daily SMA200 @ $51.83

S&R:

S1: $27.98
S2: $27.32
S3: $25.51
R1: $31.18
R2: $32.37
R3: $34.70

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil prices led the equities markets to short-lived correction

The oil benchmarks have watched yesterday shy try to correct to the upside ended to filling the downside gap opening of this week by short lived period above $30, before retreating again.

The equities markets in EU and US have tracked the oil prices to watch retreating by the end of yesterday session, after rebounding in the beginning of it.

Today Asian session has followed US to watch the red color coming back painting the major equities indexes with no snapping of the oil slide even during the Asian session.

SP-MAR16 could rise to 1907.25 to place another lower high to fall from again breaking 1849.25 which could supporting level by the end of last week.

SP-Mar16 has been exposed to increasing down side momentum following forming a lower high at 2074.65 on Dec. 30, after facing difficulty several times to keep a place above 2100 to be exposed to the current downside extension, after failing to return above its daily SMA100 forming resistance at 2016.50.

SP-Mar16 daily RSI is referring now to existence in its oversold area below 30 reading 26.932 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the oversold region below 20 reading 17.777 leading its signal line which is still in the neutral territory reading now 24.963.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 2021.34, Daily SMA100 @ 2005.82 and Daily SMA200 @ 2044.55

S&R:

S1: 1830.50
S2: 1812.38
S3: 1802.63
R1: 1907.25
R2: 1927.25
R3: 1946.25


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

GBPUSD is still struggling to find a room to fix its oversold stance

The British pound is still suffering from the first appearance of BOE's chief Mark Carney who lowered the expectations of watching BOE tracking the Fed by raising the interest rate by saying phrases like " The journey to monetary-policy normalization is still young" and like "Now is not yet the time to raise interest rates" or even like " U.S. has stronger cost pressures, while Britain faces a greater drag from fiscal policy and weak global inflation"

Carney did not highlighted the oil slide influences on the inflation outlook in UK only but he has underscored also the global economic downside risks impacts on UK economic expansion.

From another side, Dec UK CPI came yesterday as expected to show the highest yearly rising last year by 0.2% only, after barely increasing by 0.1% in November, while BOE's yearly inflation target is 2%.

The cable shy try to correct from 1.4235 has been limited by reaching 1.4338 which has been followed by retreating extension to 1.4127, before residing for trading near 1.4150 currently having 1.4110 bottom of March 2009 unbroken yet.

The cable is still maintaining its relatively high falling pace which started following forming a top at 1.5238 on last Dec. 11, after forming a series of lower highs and also lower lows.

The cable daily RSI is into its oversold area below 30 reading now 15.045 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in relatively deep place into its oversold area below 20 reading only 4.515 and also its signal line which is reading now 5.158 showing stronger need for finding a room to fix this oversold stance.

The cable daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is in its day number 25 of continued being above the trading rate reading today 1.4365.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.4892, Daily SMA100 @ 1.5106 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.5299

S&R:

S1: 1.4110
S2: 1.40
S3: 1.3844
R1: 1.4338
R2: 1.4474
R3: 1.4643


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

WTI came under increasing downside pressure, after filling the week opening gap

CL FEB 16 could fill the downside opening gap of this week by reaching $30.18 yesterday, before resuming its slide breaking last Monday low at $28.36 causing more stop buying orders triggering to reach $27.54 during today Asian session.

The mixture daily parameters are still showing deep existence in the oversold area waiting for today release of US EIA Oil stockpile of the week ending on Jan. 15 which was hovering above 480m barrels in the recent 10 weeks.

Over the hourly chart, CL FEB 16 RSI is referring also to existence in its oversold area below 30 reading now 27.396 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line in the oversold region below 20 reading now 10.077 with its signal line which is referring to this same area reading 17.483.

Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $33.57, Daily SMA50 @ $37.45, Daily SMA100 @ $41.70 and Daily SMA200 @ $47.86.

S&R:

S1: $26.93
S2: $25.25
S3: $24.21
R1: $30.18
R2: $32.19
R3: $34.30

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

USDJPY could bounce up with the risk appetite rebound

The risk aversion sentiment could boost demand for the Japanese yen, as this low cost financing currency usually gains benefits during the dovish market sentiment.

The Japanese yen could also gain benefits recently from the Chinese Yuan suffering, as an Asian competitive reserve currency, while there is no signal yet from BOJ to take further easing steps.

USDJPY has been exposed to increasing downside momentum to reach 115.96 surpassing last Aug. 24 low at 116.15, before rebounding to 117.46 during today Asian session.

But this containing cannot be reliable to go further to the upside without bringing down 118.36 which could hold in the face of the pair tries to rise in the recent 9 days to be exposed to forming lower highs below it.

USDJPY daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading 118.10 in its day number 20 of consecutive being above the trading rate.

While USDJPY daily RSI is referring now to existence barely in the neutral region coming from its oversold area below 30 reading now 31.394 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility could have its main line in the neutral region reading now 49.134 and also its signal line is reading now 46.589.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 120.84, Daily SMA100 @ 120.65 and Daily SMA200 @ 121.48

S&R:

S1: 115.96
S2: 115.55
S3: 114.87
R1: 118.36
R2: 118.81
R3: 119.68


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

CAD could be boosted by BOC's decsion and oil prices rebound

CAD has tracked the oil benchmarks rebound, after it had been exposed to massive selling across the broad because of the aggressive oil falling which can erode the Canadian exports value causing financial pressure on the Canadian economy.

BOC has revised down its 2016 GDP forecast to only 1.4% from 2%, after stalled economic growth in the last quarter of last year.

But it has decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% yesterday driving USDCAD down below 1.45 by disappointing the odds of watching another interest rate cutting.

Despite the retreating from 1.4687 to 1.4447, USDCAD is still above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.4394 in its day number 13 of continued being below the trading rate.

USDCAD daily RSI-14 is still into the overbought area above 70 reading 76.998, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region coming down from its overbought area above 80 reading 63.129 and also its signal line which is reading now 78.322.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.3774, Daily SMA100 @ 1.3473 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.3037

S&R:

S1: 1.4429
S2: 1.4174
S3: 1.4048
R1: 1.4687
R2: 1.4946
R3: 1.50


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The gold resided for trading again near $1100 per ounce

The risk-off sentiment helped the gold to extend its rebound from $1071.22 per ounce to reach yesterday $1109.36 per ounce spiking above its daily SMA100, before residing for trading below it now near $1100 per ounce.
The demand for safe haven could drive the gold up in the beginning week of the year to reach $1112.75 which has been its highest reached level since last Nov. 4 but it retreated again failing to maintain a place above its daily SMA100.
Despite the retreating to $1071.22, XAUUSD could maintain existence above its daily SMA50 and it could also have its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) below for 14 consecutive days reading today $1080.46
The gold could rise for trading above this indicator, after having a higher bottom at $1057.98 following maintaining existence above $1046.08 by rising from $1047.46 on last Dec. 17.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region but it a closer place to its overbought area above 80 reading 72.532 leading its signal line which is reading now 65.490.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1076.40, Daily SMA100 @ $1116.22 and Daily SMA200 @ $1134.05
S&R:
S1: $1071.22
S2: $1057.98
S3: $1046.08
R1: $1112.95
R2: $1123
R3: $1138.05

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Walid

You must have a lot of followers

You only posted yesterday and already over 3200+ views - seems strange when most new posts in a day only make anything from 50 to a few hundred views ?

All I can say is well done - I just wonder why everybody and their dog on this forum must be interested in the GU ?

Good Trading and all the best

Regards

F

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

Thank you for this kind appreciation

Thank you for this kind appreciation

Have a good day

Hi Walid

You must have a lot of followers

You only posted yesterday and already over 3200+ views - seems strange when most new posts in a day only make anything from 50 to a few hundred views ?

All I can say is well done - I just wonder why everybody and their dog on this forum must be interested in the GU ?

Good Trading and all the best

Regards

F

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The single currency is still depressed by Draghi's guidance

the single currency is still depressed by the ECB's president Mario Draghi who managed to send dovish forward guidance like what he did in October meeting, before December meeting deposit rate cutting by 0.1% to -0.3% and decision to extended the ECB bond-buying program until at least March 2017 from September 2016.
Draghi said yesterday that "The ECB may reconsider its policy stance in March amid a deteriorating economic outlook and turmoil in global markets".

After spending most of last week trading times near 1.088, EURUSD has decided to pull back to be traded near 1.0840 currently.
The pair is still below the trendline resistance extension from 1.3992 to 1.1712, after failing to rise above its daily SMA100.
The pair is now in meeting with its daily SMA50 in its day number 6 of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0735.
After having balanced situation by residing for trading near 1.088, the pair parameters are showing now tendency to the downside.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is in the neutral region reading now 46.077 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region reading 38.438 leading to the downside its signal line which is reading 44.728.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0827, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0990 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1051
S&R:
S1: 1.0709
S2: 1.0519
S3: 1.0461
R1: 1.0991
R2: 1.1058
R3: 1.1093

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil prices could extend its rebound shrugging off EIA data

Brent Mar. 16 could extend its rebound from $27.10 to reach $29.83, before residing for trading currently near $29.50, despite US EIA Oil stockpile growing in the week ending on Jan. 15 to 486,537m by gaining 3.979m barrels, while the market was waiting for adding 2.248m, after increasing by only 0.234m in the week ending on Jan. 8 to keep hovering above 480m barrels in the recent 11 weeks.

Brent Mar. 16 has been exposed to increasing downside momentum in the beginning of this week which opened on a downside gap at $28.23, before having extension to $27.10.

The oil prices have been negatively impacted by implying the Iranian nuclear deal which can support the supplies by 0.5m barrels a day initially, while the worries about the demand solidarity were rising still because of the economic slowdown signs from china and the weaker than expected manufacturing performance in US last month.

Brent Mar. 16 daily RSI could barely get out from its oversold area below 30 reading now 31.237 in the neutral region and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in into the neutral region reading 51.179 leading its signal line to refer now to 33.918, after continued existence in the oversold area below 20 since Jan. 8.

Despite having its biggest daily gains since Oct. 18 yesterday, Brent Mar. 16 is still below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is referring today to 31.02 in its day number 13 of continued being above the trading rate.

Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $33.04, Daily SMA50 @ $38.30, Daily SMA100 @ $43.63 and Daily SMA200 @ $51.36

S&R:

S1: $27.10
S2: $25.51
S3: $25.33
R1: $30.24
R2: $31.18
R3: $32.37


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

After dramatic falling, The Aussie could gain back a place above 0.70

AUDUSD could get use of the Chinese stocks rebound to extend its rebound from 0.6825 to be trading currently above 0.7000 psychological level containing its total falling of last week.
After it had been exposed to increasing downside momentum by breaking 0.6903 supporting level which could prop up the pair on last Sep. 4.
After yesterday rebound, AUDUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is now its second day of being below the trading rate reading today 0.6826.
AUDUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is sensitive to the volatility is having its main line in neutral region but close to the overbought area above 80 reading now 78.490 dragging the signal line out the oversold area below 20 to read now 55.924.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 0.7155, Daily SMA100 @ 0.7146 and Daily SMA200 @ 0.7360

S&R:
S1: 0.6825
S2: 0.6769
S3: 0.6527
R1: 0.7046
R2: 0.7084
R3: 0.7120


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[gerryg]

EUR/USD will test 1.07 soon as easing concerns will swill after Draghi dovish comments. Small long-term trades should be made on EUR/ pairs as it will tumble against its peers.

 

[Vinayak1000]

Oil prices continue to keep collapsing all around the world causing various social problems. The price of oil has jumped back over $30 per barrel again. The world is filled with oil stockpiles as Saudi Arabia keeps pumping out oil in an attempt to negate high-cost oil producers.
According to research by the IEA, though, oil prices should climb higher as 2016 goes on and it should soar higher at year end.
I think I am going to go with a monthly put on oil this time. It should head lower this time temporarily.