Walid Salah Eldin
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5th July 2018 - The trade tension and the oil prices
The oil prices are still possessed by the geopolitical conflicts between US and Iran, after Trump had withdrawn US from Vienna agreement warning the trading partners of Iran looking for lowering the Iranian oil exports to zero.
The Iranian president Rohani has clarified yesterday that Iran will not be silent in the face of that escalating against it threatening capping of the oil exports from the region.
In the same time, EU pledged to buy 1m bpd from Iran defying Trump and its parliament allowed to the EU investment bank to work in Iran a day before the market waiting of imposing new US Tariffs can trigger series of retaliates to weigh down on the global recovery.
It looks another face of the political discrepancies between EU and Trump who has previously revived the concerns about the global trade war by threatening to impose 20% tariffs on imported cars to US from EU in a tweet.
After he had announced that he is to move toward imposing more tariffs on Chinese goods of up to $200B following his decision to impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods from China.
Earlier this week, Trump asked The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which accounts for about 35% of the global production to lower the prices again but this time his request was without mentioning the way to do that, as he eroded the production rising impact by escalating against Iran.
After it had actually taken its decision last month to raise its output by 1m barrel a day effectively from the beginning of this month after conflict between its members who reached more than 100% compliance of the cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries on drop of the production from Venezuela.
The action has been praised by Trump who asked for that increasing, after he had withdrawn US from the Iranian nuclear deal placing back the US sanctions on it fulfilling demands from Middle East countries, despite the opposing of The European countries which have found more benefits on building business relationships with Iran, while the great deal of investments from this area as well as the oil from it go directly and mainly to US.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Al-Falih said that increasing the Oil output by 1 million bpd is a good target to work with, as the Short-term oil demand growth is big, while Saudi Arabia is having 2m bpd spare capacity currently.
While The United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail Al- Mazrouei said that We did not discuss allowing producers with spare capacity to fill gaps left by others.
OPEC is set to hold the next biannual meeting on 3 December with increasing expectation of removing the production limit, if the prices are not to fall from the current accepted levels by OPEC which have not been seen since November 2014.
After limited setback to $71.41 kept WTI well above $70 psychological level, it could resume its ascending channel to be traded currently near $73 in a higher place above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200.
WTI getting above $72.84 which has been last May. 22 high could make the crude much more vulnerable to the upside to reach a higher high at $73.86 last Tuesday.
WTI could previously have another bullish sign on its upward trend by its ability to form an intermediate support at $67.32, after bottoming out at $63.37 on last Jun. 18.
WTI is now on its tenth day of consecutive being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today $68.33.
WTI daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area unable to approach its overbought territory above 70 reading now 66.367.
WTI daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now inside its neutral region at 67.774 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher in this same area at 76.964, after negative crossover inside the overbought area above 80.
WTI Daily MACD(12,26,9) is still well above the zero line and the histogram is still stable showing no sign of decreasing height or convergence toward the zero line until now, after a period of increasing mode on accelerating of the upside momentum.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $68.82, Daily SMA100 @ $66.36 and Daily SMA200 @ $62.03
Experienced S&R:
S1: $71.41
S2: $67.32
S3: $63.38
R1: $73.86
R2: $77.77
R3: $83.23
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The oil prices are still possessed by the geopolitical conflicts between US and Iran, after Trump had withdrawn US from Vienna agreement warning the trading partners of Iran looking for lowering the Iranian oil exports to zero.
The Iranian president Rohani has clarified yesterday that Iran will not be silent in the face of that escalating against it threatening capping of the oil exports from the region.
In the same time, EU pledged to buy 1m bpd from Iran defying Trump and its parliament allowed to the EU investment bank to work in Iran a day before the market waiting of imposing new US Tariffs can trigger series of retaliates to weigh down on the global recovery.
It looks another face of the political discrepancies between EU and Trump who has previously revived the concerns about the global trade war by threatening to impose 20% tariffs on imported cars to US from EU in a tweet.
After he had announced that he is to move toward imposing more tariffs on Chinese goods of up to $200B following his decision to impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods from China.
Earlier this week, Trump asked The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which accounts for about 35% of the global production to lower the prices again but this time his request was without mentioning the way to do that, as he eroded the production rising impact by escalating against Iran.
After it had actually taken its decision last month to raise its output by 1m barrel a day effectively from the beginning of this month after conflict between its members who reached more than 100% compliance of the cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries on drop of the production from Venezuela.
The action has been praised by Trump who asked for that increasing, after he had withdrawn US from the Iranian nuclear deal placing back the US sanctions on it fulfilling demands from Middle East countries, despite the opposing of The European countries which have found more benefits on building business relationships with Iran, while the great deal of investments from this area as well as the oil from it go directly and mainly to US.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Al-Falih said that increasing the Oil output by 1 million bpd is a good target to work with, as the Short-term oil demand growth is big, while Saudi Arabia is having 2m bpd spare capacity currently.
While The United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail Al- Mazrouei said that We did not discuss allowing producers with spare capacity to fill gaps left by others.
OPEC is set to hold the next biannual meeting on 3 December with increasing expectation of removing the production limit, if the prices are not to fall from the current accepted levels by OPEC which have not been seen since November 2014.
After limited setback to $71.41 kept WTI well above $70 psychological level, it could resume its ascending channel to be traded currently near $73 in a higher place above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200.
WTI getting above $72.84 which has been last May. 22 high could make the crude much more vulnerable to the upside to reach a higher high at $73.86 last Tuesday.
WTI could previously have another bullish sign on its upward trend by its ability to form an intermediate support at $67.32, after bottoming out at $63.37 on last Jun. 18.
WTI is now on its tenth day of consecutive being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today $68.33.
WTI daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area unable to approach its overbought territory above 70 reading now 66.367.
WTI daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now inside its neutral region at 67.774 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher in this same area at 76.964, after negative crossover inside the overbought area above 80.
WTI Daily MACD(12,26,9) is still well above the zero line and the histogram is still stable showing no sign of decreasing height or convergence toward the zero line until now, after a period of increasing mode on accelerating of the upside momentum.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $68.82, Daily SMA100 @ $66.36 and Daily SMA200 @ $62.03
Experienced S&R:
S1: $71.41
S2: $67.32
S3: $63.38
R1: $73.86
R2: $77.77
R3: $83.23
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
