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[leovirgo]

5th August

Similar to yesteray's situation. Only exception is that I can't join buyers or sellers at this point. Need more developments. have a nice day!

There could be conflicting signals where INDU Cash closes below 9296 at 3:30 which is weak PA and yet it would still be in bulls zone. Lets see the internals for confirmation.

 

[leovirgo]

There are times when I thought I'd be just an observer because TA won't allow me to take any position. But it developed perfectly into tradable set ups i.e, yesterday. There were three separate long methods which all delivered.

Likewise, there are times when I thought I might get a set-up and yet it wouldn't let me go in due to conflicting signals. Markets are taking a dive that I can't/won't take simply because VE does not look for exact turning points. At this point, I could go short only if VWAP location changes.

Current VWAP has to come below yMean (yellow horizontal lines). YM futs are coming that way. I will see if others follow. NQ's also following.

15:26 update
I will short at vwap ONLY IF

i) NYSE internals are still bearish -1000
ii) INDU Cash below 9272.

Aftermarket update
V-shape day at last. VE didn't have solid trades. Just shorted ES two cars for a CycX short entry but quickly reduced size to one contract as I didn't think it would go far with short position.
see the trade list.

 

[leovirgo]

6th Aug Thursday premarket plan

 

[leovirgo]

Read FT Markets before you trade

 

[leovirgo]

6th Aug Thursday premarket plan

Plan2 NQ fell as expected. Shorts from VWAP a couple of times..

 

[leovirgo]

7th Aug Friday plan

Similar to yesterday. Buy the pullback. Need to make sure two things:

i) INDU cycle up &
ii) NDQ100 MDMean Line holds, otherwise could be a choppy session.

 

[leovirgo]

ii) NDQ100 MDMean Line holds, otherwise could be a choppy session.

It is 1614.71 on NQ futs. It is not holding, so I will halt any long play. Just got a few pips on the small bounce from vwap tough.:whistling

 

[henkvanhirtum]

Ym

Hey Leo,

What about YM? Is it still in long mode?

Greets,

Henk.

 

[leovirgo]

Hey Leo,

What about YM? Is it still in long mode?

Greets,

Henk.

Absolutely. It is "perferct". I was just about to post it.

 

[leovirgo]

Cycle exits on hourly

60 Overbought on all of them (except INDU). Original signal was Cycle Cross Long (CycX Long) on yMean. It delivered nicely.

It is Friday and I am calling it a (good) week. See you all next week.

 

[dcraig1]

Current VWAP has to come below yMean (yellow horizontal lines). YM futs are coming that way. I will see if others follow. NQ's also following.

Sorry if it has been mentioned before on this thread, but is "yMean" the prior day's VWAP ?

 

[leovirgo]

Sorry if it has been mentioned before on this thread, but is "yMean" the prior day's VWAP ?

yes it is.

 

[leovirgo]

10 Aug premarket analysis

INDU Cash is still in bulls zone so VE will not join sellers unless NYSE internals are bearish.

As shown in the chart, will go long as long as it is above 9328 (cash).

NQ, which is sometimes regarded as vanguard of the YM and ES, is already weak. So, INDU Cash and NQ are in conflict. Normally, I will not take any trade unless it is convincingly clear to take any side.

I will try to update the analysis.

 

[leovirgo]

Greed on gray days

Sometimes, the markets behaviours fall short of system criteria or give conflicting signals. The markets simply look dumb. I usually took a side, either buy or sell, and tried to squeeze a few pips out of the 'dumb' markets. And, mostly I ended up getting 'killed' by that slow moving, hesitating, and unpromising markets. I don't wanna know who is really dumb at the end of the day !!

So, on those days, I will let the markets move. Yes, that move looks so simple to 'take' it. It all looked so simple with hindsight.

Last but not least, 'stand aside day' for VE can be a 'perfect set-up day' for someone else's system/method. This is what I have to remind me myself again and again.

 

[leovirgo]

11 Aug premarket analysis

Today's set up, so far, is that of a void for VE. ES/YM/NQ all crosssing down yMean but when vwap is well above yMean, VE doesn't take sellshort. If NYSE internals are convincingly bearish, then will attempt to short it from vwap. Let's see.

14:53 Update
ES,YM,NQ all bearish confirmed but YM and ES currently sitting on the lower end of 3day mean range. It could bounce from this area.

End of Day Update
A shortable day after all with CycleCross Short & 1WAY Short set ups. On pullback, YM and NQ broke out above vwap. However ES was the best candidate to short from vwap.

 

[leovirgo]

12 August FOMC day

Eqx index futures made u-turns to head up as soon as the markets opened. If they closed above yMeans, looks like they will, it will be CycX LONG set up. Provided that INDU Cash Hourly cycle is also up, VE will signal long entries. The only exception is that on Fed days, markets tend to die down afew hours before the decision, so if I don't get a position in another 1:30hrs time, it is not worth taking it.

If possible, will not hold the position around Fed announcement time (2.15ET, 7.15UK time).

 

[leovirgo]

Buoyant markets

CycX UP (white elephants) everywhere.. Vx down, internals bullish... this is how the markets await Fed's decision. Its time for VE to go flat after a small long.

I will look for any valid set up only after 15mins past FOMC announcement.

Post-FOMC decision update

Markets pulled back to vwap for a nice long. ES is beautifullllllllllllllll.

 

[leovirgo]

13 Aug

Just observing the markets. Had a not-so-perfect long set up just half an hour into the session but passed it. Now looking to go long IF i) Vix cooling down and ii) 10min cycle up. In the past it used to come abit late amid some choppy moves. Let's see..

 

[leovirgo]

1hr to close update

Been on the sideline the whole day. Wanted to go long from vwap but passed it again due to imperfect setup. Guess what.. it fell to yMeans. Usually yMean is one of a few good places to buy in but not this time. There is no reason on the hourly charts to go long. I don't expect any VE entry. Hence it sets me free for the rest of the evening. Flat for the day.. equity remains constant, at least.

p.s chart shows some signal but no proper follow through for a good entry.

 

[leovirgo]

14 Aug

Possible Long on ES if it stayed above 1007. But I don't like the way NQ is crossing below 1624(yMean). If it closed like this at market open, then it will be conflicting against ES. Let's see..