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[trendie]

sorry for being thick (and lazy), but what rules do you have for deciding whether a trade is worth taking?
ie, how do you determine risk being taken (ATR??), and the potential reward, and if you need a minimum reward-to-risk to take the trade?
do you use sclaing in/out methods?
thanks

 

[leovirgo]

sorry for being thick (and lazy), but what rules do you have for deciding whether a trade is worth taking? ie, how do you determine risk being taken (ATR??),

if it is valid set up then it is worth taking. my SL is small. usually low of last bar on 3min (equivalent) chart. target is usually 1:1 or more, usually it is about 4:1 to cover losing trades.

and the potential reward, and if you need a minimum reward-to-risk to take the trade?

1:1 or more. depending on the set up.

do you use sclaing in/out methods?

I want to but I'm not at that level yet. cheers!

 

[leovirgo]

Points to consider for indices

1) Vix is making a new low that supports up move or consolidation
2) gold/silver are not moving as much as indices, they are lagging behind. It can be interpreted both ways.
3) dollar is still weak.

Plan for today

Could be a sideline day except

1) want to long NQ for TP1 1550 if lower TF permits.

Decline to yMeans are not shortable.

 

[leovirgo]

Not much of a day for VE. Indices pulled back to yMeans as expected but I didn't short them. There's at least one leg up for them on the hourly cycle. Let's see if it can happen. Failure to do that will be a good short set up for tomorrow.

 

[leovirgo]

1) want to long NQ for TP1 1550 if lower TF permits.

C'mon, 1547 is pre-market session highs, then 1550. It should be either 1550 or cycle exhaustion exit as 10M is o/b now.:whistling

 

[leovirgo]

NQ reached TP1 @1550 and making new highs.

Cycles are basic, PA is even better, market internals completes VE.

 

[leovirgo]

22 July Wednesday

Daily charts are just ready for pullback, not weak therefore there's always room for a buy entry as long as it is above yMean.

Hourly: ES is shortable now but YM and NQ are still in up cycle. If INDU Cash closed below 8810 that would signal an end of bullish status.

In short, I would need i) market breadth bearish and ii) INDU below 8810 for a swing short. It could be a consolidation as long as it is above 8590.

 

[leovirgo]

Just wanted to say you're doing a great journal here Leo.

Thanks BSD. here is my current analysis..

I know that the bears are out there but they could be a frustrated bunch of losers right now. For me, VIX holds the key. VIX is at important level, that of 1st July. For the indices to fall VIX has to go up above 24.50. Until then buy the dip.

VE has been on the buyside for the last few weeks. System is still "not sellshort yet" & "keep buying".. but personally I am abit reluctant to buy, buy and buy. ( what a rebel being a human! why should I submit myself to a set of mechanical rules!) As a result, I tempted to short the market here and there and the result is .. not good. I must admit that I missed some up moves by not following my own method.

The markets can remain irrational longer than a trader can remain solvent. So, til then..

 

[leovirgo]

Still in upper zone. Keep buying for spikes or whatever until it broke below yMean (yellow lines). then if power down ( whole market bearish) join the sellers with TP at m2 and m3. if not, pass the sell and in stead buy from m2 and m3 back to re-test last highs.

 

[leovirgo]

Still in upper zone. Keep buying for spikes or whatever until it broke below yMean (yellow lines).

forgot to mention TP1 and TP2 in the first post as it wasn't shown on chart at that time. now they can been seen.:cheesy:

 

[leovirgo]

We've got the first 'weak set up' on NQ since 12th July. But INDU Cash and ES/YM are still strong. Therefore, depending on maket internals, I will go short NQ and long ES/YM.

Short target for NQ = 1560 ( there is support at 1563 )
Long target for ES = 983 ( if it can pass last swing high 975 )
Short target for ES = 950 ( if it broke below 966 yMean , support at 957 )

I think there will be opportunity to go long at supports.

 

[leovirgo]

27th July Monday

Just quick update

YM/ES reached Friday's long targets. Even reached intra-day targets for today.

NQ not making any progress and yMeans are flat. Break below 1587 signal weakness/change of trend. After that will swing short from lower high if it comes back above or around 1587.(not today)

Will closely watch if they break below yMeans

YM: 9008, ES 970, NQ 1587.

Till then, they are in buy zones.

 

[leovirgo]

Great thread Leo keep up the hard work

Thanks for your kind comments. I am still learning.

For the last few days or so, my confidence has reached another level- thanks to the new big screen and layout that includes all the variables I watch in one screen. In terms of money management, now I have an outline about

1. when to trade single entry/exit
2. when to trade single entry / multiple targets
3. when not to trade at all even if they are valid set-ups based on money management

That also leads to better self-displine because the rules are clearer than before.

Today, there were 4 scalping trades- 2 winners, 1 b/e, 1 loser.

I've been looking into using options as a hedging mechanism for swing trades. I have a paper trade by using Bear call spread for NQ C1620 and C1610 Aug expiry. When the time and TA are right, I will also test with covered long/short strategy as well. So far, I am still the directional trader therefore futures suit me with the use of VE.

 

[leovirgo]

28th July Tuesday

Today, YM,ES,NQ are all broke free from their bullish-bias as per VE. I can now sell without the need of power down (NYSE bearish internals).

On the dailies, the picture has been changed- it is now a strong set up on the dailies. Therefore, any major support can be bought again. But 60 hourly needs to be oversold. VE does not expect a new high from now on, based on hourly set-up. I wish I can use option strategies to make use of this sideway/consolidation range. One at a time ..

As shown in the chart, there are sell targets

YM 9008/8970, ES 970/966, NQ 1587/1586.

Buy targets are YM 9061, ES 979, NQ 1596.

 

[leovirgo]

29th July

Two things to take notice

i) NDX.X (NQ100) is reaching Sept 08 Lows, a possible major resistance.

2) INDU Cash's 3 day Mean Range is very narrow.

I also take note that DJChina Index is down 5% today. I will post the charts later..

 

[leovirgo]

see analysis in previous post

 

[leovirgo]

Surprise surprise! What a break out! Didn't expect it that way.

Anyway, VE was screaming for long entry. Took NQ long and already out. Done for the day

 

[leovirgo]

31 July

It looks like its gonna be a wild swing day. It couldn't maintain the level yesterday, at the moment it is below yMean hence downward bias as per VE.

However, Mean lines Structure still supports a breakout to the upside.

Plan
Buy above 984/987 for 1000 mark, other wise in the range and downward bias for supports below, 972 etc.

This analysis is based on ES alone. Have a prosperous day!

 

[leovirgo]

4th August plan

Still a buyer above MDMean line (white line) and yMean (yellow horizontal line). Otherwise let it fall and I 'may' pick it up from support lines below (cyan dotted lines).
Reason: INDU Cash is still in bullish zone

 

[leovirgo]

Markets behaving just as expected