Ukraine invasion

According to Konstantin (INSIDE RUSSIA channel) they closed the air space for one week in southern Russia. So the plan was to end the operation in one week.
As I showed with the video message of Putin he planned to scare Zelensky to flee and convince the army to make a coup and take power.
 
CavaliereVerde said:
According to Konstantin (INSIDE RUSSIA channel) they closed the air space for one week in southern Russia. So the plan was to end the operation in one week.
As I showed with the video message of Putin he planned to scare Zelensky to flee and convince the army to make a coup and take power.
Click to expand...
CV,
Broadly speaking, I think that's about right - or some variation on the theme. That was plan A. However, Putin knew that it was a high risk ploy with a low probability of success, not least for the reasons Histo' mentions and because he couldn't get enough troops in place quickly enough to encircle the city. However, he had a plan B and that worked an absolute treat. . .

Plan A would necessitate Zelensky focusing all his attention on Kiev, such that all Putin had to do was enough to hold the bulk of Ukrainian forces in situ in and around the capital. That left the path clear to take control of the east. So, the focus on Kiev was largely a distraction tactic that fooled pretty well everyone. As you pointed out - that included me! ;-)
Tim.
 
timsk said:
That was plan A. However, Putin knew that it was a high risk ploy with a low probability of success, not least for the reasons Histo' mentions and because he couldn't get enough troops in place quickly enough to encircle the city.
Click to expand...
Slightly desagree on this.
That was the main plan, otherwise he would not try it, they lost a huge amount of equipment, together with the reputational damage of being a superpower unable to capture Ukraine.
It was not a matter of speed, they tried to capture Kiev for one month not only one week.
It has been a defeat not a distraction.
 
CavaliereVerde said:
I will think about it.
Click to expand...
. . . What is there to think about?
You say (assuming you believe what you write) that there's an 80% probability that Zelensky and his forces will be in control of the southern region. I put it to you that if you have a prospective trade with an 80% probability of success that you wouldn't hesitate to take it. The odds don't get much better than that - at least not very often. Also, you only have to be right in one of the regions you mentioned, whereas I have to be right in all three. The terms of the wager are weighted in your favour and the reward is lovely. I know as I'm looking at the one with your name on it - here it is. . .

CavaliereVerde_Prize.jpg
 
timsk said:
Britannia 2022 1 oz Silver Bullion Coin
It's a very cool coin and it's real money, unlike the GBP or the EUR! Oh, and I'll pay P&P - so you pay nothing at all.
If you lose the bet, then I want anything you choose that's 1 oz 999 fine silver.
Click to expand...

I have one of those coins and thought it was around £20. Apparently, it is £24.69 Whoooo.

It really feels great to hold, unlike our normal conventional coins. My one says 201 Bishopsgate, March 2011.

A small award for doing good work. Those were the days... :)
 
IlIlIlIlI said:
Click to expand...
That is bad news but certainly no surprise.

Zelensky and the US and UK are not interested in peace or political settlement.

Same goes for EU and feel Germany is embarking down the wrong path imo.

That should make the French and the UK think twice about the build up of German military making her the strongest in Europe. Good times today will not last. Bad times tomorrow with all that military hardware the boys will want to use their toys sooner or later.
 
Oscar Reed said:
Why dont you guys hit the ground in Ukraine and take the smart phone.

www.dw.com

How Ukrainian tourism specialists survive – DW – 05/16/2022

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, tourism activities ended abruptly and remain suspended indefinitely. Here are five stories from people working in tourism — with their hopes, fears and wishes.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
Click to expand...

Who, what?

The appeasers would never put themselves in the firing line. Far from it, they would run a mile.

In any case, they have far bigger worries, like the price of fence panels. :ROFLMAO:

Scotland 1 - 3 Ukraine.
Wales next victims on Sunday.
 
timsk said:
R_L,
He's condemning the policy, not condoning it and goes on to explain the thinking behind it here:
". . . One of the things that we did as we as we allied ourselves with Al Qaeda, and on and off with ISIS; I mean, we fought ISIS in a very serious way, but at the same time, we often employed them to use against the Syrian government. So it’s kind of a love-hate. But we have always worked with the terrorists. They were the core. . ."

This really ought not to surprise you if you've followed any of these conflicts. After all, if Al Quada and ISIS terrorists are actively engaged in the war in Syria, then they pose no threat to U.S. / western citizens and interests elsewhere. Besides which, what's the worst that can happen? They get killed. So, your enemy in normal times gets killed fighting a proxy war on your behalf. That's a fantastic win : win situation for the U.S. - so it makes absolute sense to use them. Morally and ethically reprehensible yes - but morality and ethics have always been conspicuous by their absence from U.S. foreign policy.
Tim.
Click to expand...
The point I was trying to make was this is not public knowledge, and he hasn't worked for the U.S. federal government since 1994. I didn't see evidence for his position that the U.S. government was helping Al-Qaeda or ISIS, so him being presented as an expert on recent U.S. intelligence is questionable.
 
CavaliereVerde said:
My most likely scenario is declaring the operation successful.
Stepping down for health reasons and appointing Medvedev as president.
New elections, if there will be more democracy it will depend on Medvedev and russians.
Click to expand...
This seems possible because Putin hasn't "saved" anyone from a tiger attack lately.;)
www.reuters.com

Putin saves TV crew from Siberian tiger

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was feted by Russian media on Sunday for saving a television crew from an attack by a Siberian tiger in the wilds of the Far East.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
So, if he declares victory, he can say he saved the world from a nuclear holocaust like this hero who actually did.

And, more seriously, his health is in question.
www.independent.co.uk

Putin ‘given three years to live’ and ‘is losing eyesight due to illness’ spy claims

Putin’s limbs are ‘shaking uncontrollably’ according to Russian spy, following recent footage of the president gripping table
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
counter_violent said:
The appeasers would never put themselves in the firing line. Far from it, they would run a mile.
In any case, they have far bigger worries, like the price of fence panels. :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...
Spare us the ad hominem comments pretty please, c_v.

I'm a realist who can see what's happening. The longer this goes on, the worse it will be for ordinary Ukrainians, so every syllable I've written on here - and write in the future - is very much with their best interests at heart. Now, kindly do us all a favour and read, mark, learn and inwardly digest the following so I don't have to keep repeating it ad infinitum: I don't like Putin, I don't agree with his actions and I don't support him in any way, shape or form.
Tim.
 
timsk said:
Spare us the ad hominem comments pretty please, c_v.

I'm a realist who can see what's happening. The longer this goes on, the worse it will be for ordinary Ukrainians, so every syllable I've written on here - and write in the future - is very much with their best interests at heart. Now, kindly do us all a favour and read, mark, learn and inwardly digest the following so I don't have to keep repeating it ad infinitum: I don't like Putin, I don't agree with his actions and I don't support him in any way, shape or form.
Tim.
Click to expand...

Why limit it to Putin? All world "leaders" are cut from the same cloth.
 
timsk said:
Tom,
I agree with everything in your post with the exception of the two points highlighted in bold.

The economic disruption is, I suspect, part of the plan - or at least a welcome byproduct of it. The economic system is beyond repair and it's only a matter of time before it collapses and fiat currencies become worthless. It's the means by which (well, one of them at least), governments can usher in the miracle new cure - the financial equivalent of the Covid 19 vaccines to save us all: central bank digital currencies.

De-stabilising Putin is the objective! More than that, various senior politicians in the west are on record as saying that ousting him from office is the end goal. Quite why they want to do that is a mystery to me because, as you rightly point out, Putin could be replaced by someone even worse. Perhaps CV can answer that question, as he's also of the view that Putin must go at any cost, by fair means (e.g. Russian uprising) or foul (e.g. CIA assassination).
Tim.
Click to expand...
What politicians say they'd like to do and what they actually do are different things as we know - some will be full of fighting talk - until there's a fight.
 
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