Dentalfloss
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wham..:smart::smart::smart:
Trading with point and figure
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1.28-1.30-1.32 is going to be key battle lines.
Thinking 1.30 will be a psychological round number to try and hold until some clarity on leadership selection becomes available.
Theresa May should see pound strengthen. Andrea Leasdom probably will see it fall further.
CHAV making some good moves higher in a sea of red.
Today is all about Chilcot enquiry and Wales.
My money is on Wales. :clap::clap::clap:
And me, might even walk into the Fanzone tonight, will be terrific atmosphere!!!!
Dentalfloss
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scalps out on dax.spx and cable
tight stops
tight stops
MichaelJohnFX
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Should be a very interesting read this.1.28-1.30-1.32 is going to be key battle lines.
Thinking 1.30 will be a psychological round number to try and hold until some clarity on leadership selection becomes available.
Theresa May should see pound strengthen. Andrea Leasdom probably will see it fall further.
CHAV making some good moves higher in a sea of red.
Today is all about Chilcot enquiry and Wales.
My money is on Wales. :clap::clap::clap:
Money is on wales too - massive underpriced for some reason =/
Dentalfloss
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hummer
Dentalfloss
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********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As yesterday's price action more than amply demonstrated, at the heart of all the Brexit fall-out is not really the political uncertainty, but the realization that the post-GFC environment monetary largesse and its cohort of NIRP, ZIRP and QE has done nothing to resolve financial sector risks, other than re-arrange deck chairs, and in some cases exacerbate risks already evident in 2006-2008, probably exponentially. The day's data and events schedule is per se somewhat academic, and in any case rather sparse, primarily featuring the mixed German Factory Orders (strong Eurozone and Capital Goods orders offsetting headline miss) and the US Non-Manufacturing ISM, accompanied by expected no change rate decisions in Sweden and Poland, a Draghi speech and June FOMC minutes, with the end of Ramadan Eid-Al Fitr holidays likely to thin volumes. Following on from the first round of the UK Tory party leadership contest yesterday, today sees the publication of the Chilcot Inquiry (which has taken 7 years) into the UK’s role in the 2003 Iraq invasion. The core questions being: were British Armed Forces knowingly dispatched to the battlefields of Iraq under false pretences, and by extension will there be any charges of war crimes, as a consequence? The suspicion and the risk is that it will harden distrust in the UK establishment. Equally the anecdotal reports about the serial "gating" of UK Property Investment Funds suggest that the regulatory directive (following the demise of New Star and the sub-prime crisis) that these funds hold at least 20% in 'liquid near cash assets', resulted in many allocating these monies to REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), per se reinforcing the current 'doom loop' evident in the sector, as final investors rush for the exit. Again this hardly encourages the view that either the financial sector or its regulators have learnt anything from the Global Financial Crisis, or that there is much in the way of lateral thinking. As for the Tory party leadership contest, the results of the first round of the contest appear to confirm that Mrs May will be the next UK Prime Minister, but as the membership vote will not be completed until September, the observation that a week, let alone 3 months, is a long time in politics seems apt. That said, the revelation that Mrs Leadsom has made 'misleading claims' about her experience in the financial sector, and the immediate backing of Mr Fox and Mr Crabb for Mrs May would appear to make any other outcome very surprising; nevertheless this would merely remove one relatively small uncertainty in the fog that currently surrounds the UK.
In terms of the US Non-manufacturing ISM, the consensus looks for a marginal improvement to 53.3 from May's 52.9 two year low at the headline level, and indeed for the Business Activity index 55.5 vs. 55.1. May's relatively steep fall from April's four month high of 55.7 appeared somewhat exaggerated, though it did chime in with the not particularly well correlated Markit Services PMI (which is seen unrevised at 51.3, unchanged vs May and March). The flash reading for the latter did however see New Orders pick up to the best levels since January, and per se offer some hope that the ISM might surprise to the upside.
from Marc Ostwald
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As yesterday's price action more than amply demonstrated, at the heart of all the Brexit fall-out is not really the political uncertainty, but the realization that the post-GFC environment monetary largesse and its cohort of NIRP, ZIRP and QE has done nothing to resolve financial sector risks, other than re-arrange deck chairs, and in some cases exacerbate risks already evident in 2006-2008, probably exponentially. The day's data and events schedule is per se somewhat academic, and in any case rather sparse, primarily featuring the mixed German Factory Orders (strong Eurozone and Capital Goods orders offsetting headline miss) and the US Non-Manufacturing ISM, accompanied by expected no change rate decisions in Sweden and Poland, a Draghi speech and June FOMC minutes, with the end of Ramadan Eid-Al Fitr holidays likely to thin volumes. Following on from the first round of the UK Tory party leadership contest yesterday, today sees the publication of the Chilcot Inquiry (which has taken 7 years) into the UK’s role in the 2003 Iraq invasion. The core questions being: were British Armed Forces knowingly dispatched to the battlefields of Iraq under false pretences, and by extension will there be any charges of war crimes, as a consequence? The suspicion and the risk is that it will harden distrust in the UK establishment. Equally the anecdotal reports about the serial "gating" of UK Property Investment Funds suggest that the regulatory directive (following the demise of New Star and the sub-prime crisis) that these funds hold at least 20% in 'liquid near cash assets', resulted in many allocating these monies to REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), per se reinforcing the current 'doom loop' evident in the sector, as final investors rush for the exit. Again this hardly encourages the view that either the financial sector or its regulators have learnt anything from the Global Financial Crisis, or that there is much in the way of lateral thinking. As for the Tory party leadership contest, the results of the first round of the contest appear to confirm that Mrs May will be the next UK Prime Minister, but as the membership vote will not be completed until September, the observation that a week, let alone 3 months, is a long time in politics seems apt. That said, the revelation that Mrs Leadsom has made 'misleading claims' about her experience in the financial sector, and the immediate backing of Mr Fox and Mr Crabb for Mrs May would appear to make any other outcome very surprising; nevertheless this would merely remove one relatively small uncertainty in the fog that currently surrounds the UK.
In terms of the US Non-manufacturing ISM, the consensus looks for a marginal improvement to 53.3 from May's 52.9 two year low at the headline level, and indeed for the Business Activity index 55.5 vs. 55.1. May's relatively steep fall from April's four month high of 55.7 appeared somewhat exaggerated, though it did chime in with the not particularly well correlated Markit Services PMI (which is seen unrevised at 51.3, unchanged vs May and March). The flash reading for the latter did however see New Orders pick up to the best levels since January, and per se offer some hope that the ISM might surprise to the upside.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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gbp crosses comin off nicely
gilts broken out of rez
gilts broken out of rez
Moneylender
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the morning sofar, playing out nicely!
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Went right to the base at 9412, will it bounce from there?
MichaelJohnFX
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next stop 9209. Final leg down imho
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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gotchadax into the open
Moneylender
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Tips my hat to yer!
Dentalfloss
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Wales for a win tonight
Dentalfloss
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Ronaldo sent off in 34th minute
Dentalfloss
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Roy Hodgson now living in Australia farming sheep
Dentalfloss
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MichaelJohnFX
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Afternoon guys, not sure whether I'm allowed to do this but could you help me out a bit by filling out this very short survey: surveymonkey.co.uk/r/DWZXHKJ Doing some research at the moment for a project I want to do.
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