Trading with point and figure

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SPX in rez

 

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2930...and bounce
2930 was our prev rez

 

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lets see what happens

 

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pulled back from our rez and then rallied higher

 

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dump from our rez

 

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Dax updated

 

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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ 💋💋💋💋💋

 

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Dax into the open

 

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close up

 

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dax in support

 

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Dow in rez

 

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lined up

 

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Dax
1 week of data

 

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our line became support

 

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Twaz in support....as we said earlier

 

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whack

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 21 June 2019 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

08:35 (13 minutes ago)

to Marc

- PMIs and quadruple witching in focus at the end of an eventful week,
UK PSNB, US Existing Home Sales & Canada Retail Sales also due; Fed
speakers plentiful, as are political tensions

- G7 PMIs: little change expected, France PMI beats forecasts, Japan
still weak; German PMIs expected to remain heavily divergent, US seen
sluggish

- Canada Retail Sales expected to post more modest rise after March surge,
underlining likelihood of Fed / BoC divergence on rates

- Charts: WTI Oil future / China Overnight SHIBOR rate

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-21-june-2019/


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

To end another event filled week, we have flash PMIs and 'quadruple witching' to contend with, as geopolitical tensions heat up, be that the US/Iran drone incident, Turkish/US tensions over the Russia SS-400 purchase, the impasse in the EU on who will take over key positions forcing another meeting of the EU council of leaders on 30 June, let alone things like Brexit, more drama in Italian politics or trade tensions. But one might be forgiven the cynical observation that apparently none of this matters, beceuse the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and there are indeed a lot of Fed speakers today. In the statistical roadkil category, there are also the latest UK PSNB budget and US Existing Home Sales, though Canadian Retail Sales may get rather more attention.


** G7 - June 'flash' PMIs **
- Flash PMIs for France, Germany and Eurozone are seen fractionally higher, i.e. signalling still rather dire conditions in German Manufacturing, but a solid pace of Services activity, while a very modest pace of growth is seen for both sectors in France. Following on from the weak Philly Fed (though Orders and 6-mth Outlook held up well) and the rather dire NY Fed surveys, US flash PMIs are seen little changed at a lowly 50.5 and 51.0 respectively. Indications from rail, trucking and port activity indicators suggest that the combination of trade tensions / wars and the appalling weather conditions that have plagued key agricultural areas in the mid-west is starting to create some significant headwinds for the US economy, thus any significantly weaker than expected outturns would only serve to cement Fed rate expectations, though the observation is that rate cuts will do little in actual terms to head off the aforementioned headwinds, even if they are well intentioned in signal terms.

** Canada - April Retail Sales **
- Canada's economy is showing sings of getting some traction, with this week's Retail Sales seen building on March's excellent 1.1% m/m with a 0.3% m/m rise, and 0.6% m/m ex-Autos. Following on from the unexpected spike higher in CPI ealier in the week, and the strong labour report, this would underline that BoC and Fed policy seem likely to diverge, which in turn should serve to underpin the CAD in the short to medium-term.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

 

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Dax on a poss fake