Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

in supp now

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

p/b into our horizontal supp and whack into 2950

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dentalfloss said:
2950/round could cap spx 12400..poss 12500 on dax who knows....who cares ..
We are stalking the price

2950 whacked

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Updated

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Dont call the top

Dentalfloss · Jun 20, 2019

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 20 June 2019 - ADM ISI

Ostwald, Marc

09:00 (44 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Central banks in overdrive - digesting Fed, BoJ, Bank Indonesia, awaiting
Norges Bank, Philippines' BSP and BoE; UK Retail Sales, US Current Account,
weekly jobless c laims and Philly Fed; EU Council meeting, French, Spanish
and US auctions; next round of UK Conservative leadership vote

- Fed: key aspect was the lack of any push back on market rate trajectory

- BoE on hold, constrained by Brexit impasse, focus on any changes to economic
outlook

- Norges Bank: rate hike discounted, rate trajectory in focus

- Audio:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-20-june-2019/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Central banks will continue to dominate today's agenda, as markets mull over the Fed and BoJ meetings, and await the Norges Bank and BoE MPC meetings, along with the rate decisions in Indonesia, Philippines and Taiwan. There also a number of ECB speakers today, including one of the front runners (Ollie Rehn) to take over from Draghi as ECB chief, a decision on which may or may not be reached at today's European Council meeting, along with who might take over as EU Commission president. The statistical agenda is very modest with UK Retail Sales accompanied US Q1 Current Account and weekly jobless claims, along with the Eurozone advance Consumer Confidence. A busier day for govt bond sales with France and Spain holding multi-maturity sales, while US will sell 5-yr TIPS. Eminently the noises around a now more likely meeting Trump and Xi at next week's G-20 meeting will continue to have the potential to trample central bank or data news underfoot. The comments from ECB's Rehn and Knot overnight were even more emphatically dovish than Draghi, talking about looking at all available options to ease policy, if this becomes appropriate.

** Norway - Norges Bank rate decision**
- There are a lot of developed world central banks that would like to be in Norges Bank's shoes, with inflation comfortably above target (notwithstanding the sharper than expected dip in May), and growth on a fairly solid footing, and Unemployment low, allowing it to hike rates a further 25 bps at this meeting, as it signalled last month. The key question is whether it also signals that it also brings forward the timing of the next rate cut to September, and raises the probability of a further hike in December, and sticks with the view that this would also likely be the near term peak for rates, or whether the Fed and ECB's dovish turns temper their rate view.

** U.K. - May Retail Sales **
- Retail Sales are expected to fall for a second month (-0.5% m/m), with base effects from last year's Royal Wedding dragging the y/y rate back down to a rather more trend representative 2.7% y/y from 5.2% in April, which in turn would suggest that Q2 GDP will at best scratch out a marginal gain.

** U.K. - MPC meeting **
- The BoE is unsurprisingly expected to keep Base Rate at 0.75%, and hold its QE volume at £435 Bln. It will be recalled that at the May Q2 Inflation Report meeting, Carney suggested that markets were under-pricing its rate trajectory, and insisted that the next move in rates would be up. In the meantime, markets have started to discount the possibility of a rate cut, albeit in 2020. Given the level of Brexit related uncertainty about the economic outlook, it is tantamount to a fool's errand to try and second guess what the next move in rates might be, though with the global economy cearly facing headwinds, and inflation very well contained, it would seem that a cut is the more likely outcome. The only real point of interest at this meeting is whether the MPC expresses concern about the weakness in recent UK data, or suggests that it will likely be a transitory 'payback' for the 'hoarding' boost to Q1, though at the same stressing that weak Eurozone growth and trade tensions continue to be a key risk to the outlook.

** U.S.A. / Japan - Fed / BoJ 'post mortem' **
- The Fed was for choice rather more dovish than had been anticipated, even if one might on a surface read of its economic forecasts and near term dot plot think that this was not the case. Perhaps the most dovish aspect was that there was precisely no attempt to push back against market expectations on rates. A July rate cut is not 100% 'in the bag', but with 8 policy makers shifting to seeing a rate cut this year, and Powell playing down the fact that there were still 8 not expecting a cut this year, noting that those who saw rates unchanged were nevertheless leaning towards additional accommodation, it looks very likely. Given that Powell also noted that with rates still quite close to the lower bound, there is a case for being more aggressive, and indeed markets are discounting a 1 in 4 chance that the July move could be 50 bps, though 25 bps still looks more likely. It is nevertheless worth noting that aside from the sharp cut to the 2019 headline PCE forecast to 1.5% from 1.8%, and core to 1.8% from 2.0%, the rest of its forecasts assume that the labour market will be even tighter, and below the longer run rate of 4.2% over the forecast horizon. Indeed the Fed Funds rate projection assumes rates will rise again in 2021 (see attached summary of projections). As for the BoJ, it held all policy measures as expected, and while Kuroda was emphatic that the BOJ would respond if risks to the econmic crystallized, it nevertheless stuck to the view that the global economy will improve in H2 2019.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================