Dentalfloss
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in our supp area
no signal as yet
will it hold..??
no signal as yet
will it hold..??
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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chart is vertical
26329 the low... So far
Dentalfloss
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Excellent stuff
Dow is bullish now
Dentalfloss
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Rallying from the dump
If it dips below the 264074 then it'll go bearish again
Dentalfloss
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Gettin near 26500
Stops tight
Stops tight
Dentalfloss
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Still think that 26K...is the right area to correct the overbought
Dentalfloss
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And thats not even correcting to the trendline
Dentalfloss
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Fierce recoiling on every correction..... Its as if the bulls dont want to show any weakness and being called Cissies
Dentalfloss
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As always...... Who knows
Atilla
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US data yesterday was strong...
Dentalfloss
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it bears no relationship to data....imho
more about manipulation...i think
as always...who knows
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
17:02 (2 hours ago)
to Marc
The Week Ahead - Preview: 01 to 05 October 2018
- A new quarter commences with the usual very familiar feel to the first week of the month's data schedule, featuring manufacturing and services PMIs, US & Canadian labour data, US Auto Sales, Japanese Wages and German Orders, with Japan's quarterly Tankan the other major item, and it will also be a busy week for Australian data that is accompanied by the monthly RBA meeting. Central bank speakers will be very plentiful, above all Fed (including Powell), though there are also ECB and BOE speakers. There are plenty of EM central bank rate decisions, with the focus on India, while Chinese markets will be closed all week for the National Day holidays. The Eurozone sees a slightly busier week with ca. EUR 15 Bln in govt bond auctions in France and Spain, with the UK re-opening its 2024 Gilt. The Corporate earnings schedule is very modest, as is seasonally typical, though Tesco in the UK and Acuity Brands, Costco, Constellation Brands, Lennar and Pepisco across the pond will garner some attention. As has been the case for most of the year, politics and trade tensions will doubtless be good for some market moving headlines, with the ruling UK Conservative Party holding its annual conference as party internal tensions over Brexit negotiations reach their crescendo, with speculation about a move to depose PM May as party leader having done the rounds for a number of weeks. The Italian Budget drama will continue, with the key points being not only that it inevitably raise tensions with the EU, but also that the initial projection of 2.4% could rise as the Budget Bill is debated in parliament. For some thoughts on UK and Italy and markets reaction function to political risk, please see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tc1tu9xrd2g&feature=youtu.be . US politics and trade tensions will of course continue to provide plenty of newswire fodder, but a close eye also needs to be kept on what have been difficult EU-Swiss negotiations on a new trade treaty, which the EU has set a deadline of mid-October to conclude.
- The week kicks off with PMIs with the focus above all on how much Trade tensions are weighing on Manufacturing sector sentiment, as appeared to be evident in the French and German flash PMIs (and indeed the KC Fed Manufacturing survey), with forecasts seeing Italy Manufacturing in stall territory (50.2), with Spain and UK edging down, while the US Manufacturing ISM seen dipping only modestly from August's new cyclical high of 61.3 to 60.0. Services PMIs are expected to sustain stronger levels by comparison, and in most cases seeing little or no change relative to August for Eurozone and UK, while the US Non-manufacturing ISM is seen marginally lower at 58.0, but still strong by any historical standard. US labour data forecasts look quite rather familiar feel to them with Payrolls seen up 188K, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to dip back down to its cyclical low of 3.8%. But it will as ever be Average Hourly Earnings that gets most attention, the more so after the 0.4% m/m jump to 2./9% y/y in August, with the consensus looking for 0.3% m/m, which thanks to base effects would edge the y/y rate lower to 2.8% y/y. Overall this will make for another strong report, though with few signs that wage pressures (above all in real terms) are really building up, as yet, despite plenty of signs of skills shortages in many sectors. One area that requires particular attention will be trade services, above all transport, given clear signals from last week's goods trade data that the trade war with China is starting to have an impact on volumes, above all in Food, Feed & Beverages. After soft readings in July and August, US Auto Sales are again forecast to pick up to a 16.9 Mln SAAR pace, in part seasonal (Labor Day generally gives sales a boost), and Construction Spending to rebound to 0.5% m/m, after weakness in June (-0.8%) and July (+0.1%).
Japan's Q3 Tankan is expected to see current readings at roughly the same solid levels seen in Q2, though the Outlook DIs are forecast to edge down, presumably due to trade tensions; Large Industry CapEx is however expected to remain strong (13.9% vs. Q2 13.6%). Household Spending is expected to remain subdued at just 0.1% y/y, but it will be Labor Cash Earnings (wages) which attracts most attention, and expected to decelerate even further after the June spike, with August seen at 1.3% y/y from 1.6% in nominal terms, but down to 0.0% y/y in real terms (July 0.5%). German Factory Orders will be of particular interest, having registered a fall in six of the past seven months, and with the Capital Goods sector effectively in recession given a year to date fall of -8.0%. The Consensus looks for a modest rebound of 0.7% m/m, which would fit with the message from the Ifo survey, but forecasters have been looking for a meaningful rebound since April, which has thus far failed to materialize, with the latest Bundesbank monthly report pinning the blame on the woes of the auto sector. UK data is largely of the second division variety with PMIs accompanied by BRC Shop Prices, SMMT New Car Registrations, Halifax and Nationwide House Prices, though Consumer Credit bears some scrutiny after the strong Retail Sales data, with a rebound to a £1.3 Bln pace seen after an unexpected drop to £800 Mln in July. Q2 Labour Costs are also due, but it remains the case that all UK data is subordinate to news on Brexit negotiations progress.
- Australia's RBA is very unsurprisingly expected to hold rates at 1.50%, and signal again that a rate hike remains a very distant prospect, above all with inflation very well behaved at the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target range, and wage growth also very subdued. Given that the domestic banking sector is embroiled in a major scandal, for which a 'royal inquiry' has been launched, the RBA has rather bigger fish to fry on the macro-prudential front, and in that sense is probably relieved that monetary policy can be left in neutral for a further protracted period. A very busy week for Fed speakers has a speech on the economic and policy outlook by Powell as its highlight, though he is unlikely to say anything materially different to what was said at the FOMC press conference. It will be interesting to see whether any of the rest of the Fed speakers show any signs of dissent, which outside of hardline doves Bullard & Kashkari has not been notable by its absence. In the EM space India's RBI is seen hiking rates by 25 bps to 6.50% (Reverse Repo) and 6.75% (Repo), while keep the Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%, with higher oil prices, a weak INR and a solid pace of growth offering a sound rationale. That said, the default woes of infrastructure lender IL&FS following hot on the heels of the PNB fraud imply that there will be more interest in what measures the RBI continues to undertake to ensure liquidity in its banking sector and bond market, as well as the Finance Ministry's efforts to stem the fall in the INR. Elsewhere, rates are expected to be unchanged in Iceland, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka and Uganda.
Other items of note on the week's schedule include the Quebec election (see: https://montrealgazette.com/news/qu...c-solidaire-turn-good-vibes-into-actual-votes ), an informal meeting of EU Trade ministers doubtless focussing on EU/US trade relations, and the end of week regional / municipal elections in the Czech Republic.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
17:02 (2 hours ago)
to Marc
The Week Ahead - Preview: 01 to 05 October 2018
- A new quarter commences with the usual very familiar feel to the first week of the month's data schedule, featuring manufacturing and services PMIs, US & Canadian labour data, US Auto Sales, Japanese Wages and German Orders, with Japan's quarterly Tankan the other major item, and it will also be a busy week for Australian data that is accompanied by the monthly RBA meeting. Central bank speakers will be very plentiful, above all Fed (including Powell), though there are also ECB and BOE speakers. There are plenty of EM central bank rate decisions, with the focus on India, while Chinese markets will be closed all week for the National Day holidays. The Eurozone sees a slightly busier week with ca. EUR 15 Bln in govt bond auctions in France and Spain, with the UK re-opening its 2024 Gilt. The Corporate earnings schedule is very modest, as is seasonally typical, though Tesco in the UK and Acuity Brands, Costco, Constellation Brands, Lennar and Pepisco across the pond will garner some attention. As has been the case for most of the year, politics and trade tensions will doubtless be good for some market moving headlines, with the ruling UK Conservative Party holding its annual conference as party internal tensions over Brexit negotiations reach their crescendo, with speculation about a move to depose PM May as party leader having done the rounds for a number of weeks. The Italian Budget drama will continue, with the key points being not only that it inevitably raise tensions with the EU, but also that the initial projection of 2.4% could rise as the Budget Bill is debated in parliament. For some thoughts on UK and Italy and markets reaction function to political risk, please see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tc1tu9xrd2g&feature=youtu.be . US politics and trade tensions will of course continue to provide plenty of newswire fodder, but a close eye also needs to be kept on what have been difficult EU-Swiss negotiations on a new trade treaty, which the EU has set a deadline of mid-October to conclude.
- The week kicks off with PMIs with the focus above all on how much Trade tensions are weighing on Manufacturing sector sentiment, as appeared to be evident in the French and German flash PMIs (and indeed the KC Fed Manufacturing survey), with forecasts seeing Italy Manufacturing in stall territory (50.2), with Spain and UK edging down, while the US Manufacturing ISM seen dipping only modestly from August's new cyclical high of 61.3 to 60.0. Services PMIs are expected to sustain stronger levels by comparison, and in most cases seeing little or no change relative to August for Eurozone and UK, while the US Non-manufacturing ISM is seen marginally lower at 58.0, but still strong by any historical standard. US labour data forecasts look quite rather familiar feel to them with Payrolls seen up 188K, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to dip back down to its cyclical low of 3.8%. But it will as ever be Average Hourly Earnings that gets most attention, the more so after the 0.4% m/m jump to 2./9% y/y in August, with the consensus looking for 0.3% m/m, which thanks to base effects would edge the y/y rate lower to 2.8% y/y. Overall this will make for another strong report, though with few signs that wage pressures (above all in real terms) are really building up, as yet, despite plenty of signs of skills shortages in many sectors. One area that requires particular attention will be trade services, above all transport, given clear signals from last week's goods trade data that the trade war with China is starting to have an impact on volumes, above all in Food, Feed & Beverages. After soft readings in July and August, US Auto Sales are again forecast to pick up to a 16.9 Mln SAAR pace, in part seasonal (Labor Day generally gives sales a boost), and Construction Spending to rebound to 0.5% m/m, after weakness in June (-0.8%) and July (+0.1%).
Japan's Q3 Tankan is expected to see current readings at roughly the same solid levels seen in Q2, though the Outlook DIs are forecast to edge down, presumably due to trade tensions; Large Industry CapEx is however expected to remain strong (13.9% vs. Q2 13.6%). Household Spending is expected to remain subdued at just 0.1% y/y, but it will be Labor Cash Earnings (wages) which attracts most attention, and expected to decelerate even further after the June spike, with August seen at 1.3% y/y from 1.6% in nominal terms, but down to 0.0% y/y in real terms (July 0.5%). German Factory Orders will be of particular interest, having registered a fall in six of the past seven months, and with the Capital Goods sector effectively in recession given a year to date fall of -8.0%. The Consensus looks for a modest rebound of 0.7% m/m, which would fit with the message from the Ifo survey, but forecasters have been looking for a meaningful rebound since April, which has thus far failed to materialize, with the latest Bundesbank monthly report pinning the blame on the woes of the auto sector. UK data is largely of the second division variety with PMIs accompanied by BRC Shop Prices, SMMT New Car Registrations, Halifax and Nationwide House Prices, though Consumer Credit bears some scrutiny after the strong Retail Sales data, with a rebound to a £1.3 Bln pace seen after an unexpected drop to £800 Mln in July. Q2 Labour Costs are also due, but it remains the case that all UK data is subordinate to news on Brexit negotiations progress.
- Australia's RBA is very unsurprisingly expected to hold rates at 1.50%, and signal again that a rate hike remains a very distant prospect, above all with inflation very well behaved at the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target range, and wage growth also very subdued. Given that the domestic banking sector is embroiled in a major scandal, for which a 'royal inquiry' has been launched, the RBA has rather bigger fish to fry on the macro-prudential front, and in that sense is probably relieved that monetary policy can be left in neutral for a further protracted period. A very busy week for Fed speakers has a speech on the economic and policy outlook by Powell as its highlight, though he is unlikely to say anything materially different to what was said at the FOMC press conference. It will be interesting to see whether any of the rest of the Fed speakers show any signs of dissent, which outside of hardline doves Bullard & Kashkari has not been notable by its absence. In the EM space India's RBI is seen hiking rates by 25 bps to 6.50% (Reverse Repo) and 6.75% (Repo), while keep the Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%, with higher oil prices, a weak INR and a solid pace of growth offering a sound rationale. That said, the default woes of infrastructure lender IL&FS following hot on the heels of the PNB fraud imply that there will be more interest in what measures the RBI continues to undertake to ensure liquidity in its banking sector and bond market, as well as the Finance Ministry's efforts to stem the fall in the INR. Elsewhere, rates are expected to be unchanged in Iceland, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka and Uganda.
Other items of note on the week's schedule include the Quebec election (see: https://montrealgazette.com/news/qu...c-solidaire-turn-good-vibes-into-actual-votes ), an informal meeting of EU Trade ministers doubtless focussing on EU/US trade relations, and the end of week regional / municipal elections in the Czech Republic.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
supp looming..or we go higher
supp looming..or we go higher
