Trading with point and figure

Dax into the open
goin higher or testing that supp area

2nsb18z.png
 
inzimam said:
Hi dentist

Any tips on how you decide on the reversal size.

I struggle to see how to choose between 3 and 4, and 3 and 2
Click to expand...

most detail is 1 reversal...only use that to refine
work backwards from that

a simple rule....if plot area is too wide for the screen then make it narrower by going to close plot or increase the reversal
also....if columns are very long it makes chart unreadable....then increase the box size

its to fdo with the X antd the O 's taking up more screen space than bars and candles
 
dentist007 said:
most detail is 1 reversal...only use that to refine
work backwards from that

a simple rule....if plot area is too wide for the screen then make it narrower by going to close plot or increase the reversal
also....if columns are very long it makes chart unreadable....then increase the box size

its to fdo with the X antd the O 's taking up more screen space than bars and candles
Click to expand...
Time frames get confusing. My data gives me hardly any columns on less than 15 min time frame.

Plus I'm using my tablet with an 8 inch screen most of the time so I'm trying to figure which settings work best

So you're saying use 1 box reversal and then increase to 2 and 3 etc
 
Ok
Also cute pnf only plots hilo.... So charts are much wider
Therefore start with 5 reversal and work down
The one reversa is for the latest data only
 
Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:30 (2 minutes ago)
to Marc

- Start of new month has familiar feel to data schedule, Manufacturing
PMIs, US Construction Spending & Auto Sales accompanied by Japan Q3
Tankan and UK Credit & monetary aggregates; NAFTA agreement and China
tariff cuts may prove to be overarching themes, as UK Tory party
conference continues

- Japan Q3 Tankan: trade tensions clearly weighing, though series
of natural disasters also a factor; CapEx remains buoyant

- China: weak Manufacturing PMI, but strong Services PMI; tariff cut
measures rationale requires careful multi aspect consideration

- Remainder of Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs likely to Eurozone flash PMI;
UK also seen dipping modestly

- US Manufacturing ISM: seen retreating from August's cyclical high;
keep an eye on Prices Paid

- Reminder: Q4 Fed and ECB liquidity provision takes a further $27 Bln
per month hit

- Charts: China Industrial Profits (Bloomberg); China Manufacturing
PMI vs. M1 (Cantillon Consulting)

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The new month and quarter kicks off with the usual array of Manufacturing PMIs and in a similar vein the Japan Q3 Tankan survey dominating the schedule, with UK Consumer Credit and other monetary aggregates and US Auto Sales and Construction spending also slated. It should also be noted that today marks another shift in global central bank liquidity cuts (in addition to the already announced BoJ paring of its JGB purchase), with the ECB's QE programme dropping to €15 bln per month from €30 bln, and the Fed upping its Balance Sheet reduction programme to a $50 Bln per month pace from $40 Bln, which is the planned peak 'quantitative tightening' pace. That said, the successful conclusion of the very protracted NAFTA renegotiation talks, and a further round of announced imported goods tariff cuts in China over the weekend may prove to be the dominant influence, in the sense that it offers grounds to believe that trade tensions may not prove to be as negative in economic terms as had been anticipated. That said, the fact that China also cancelled a high level security meeting with the US over the weekend, primarily due to the US stance on trade, though also due to South China Sea tensions, offers plenty of reason that this bilateral trade relationship remains on a '(trade) war' footing.

Outside of a welcome uptick in the India Manufacturing PMI, the array of Asian and the Chinese Manufacturing PMIs and to an extent Japan's Q3 Tankan offered plenty of evidence of trade tensions weighing quite heavily on activity, above all weakness evident in weak export orders. Japan's Q3 Tankan current DI readings all missed forecasts, though in absolute terms remaining at levels that are robust on an historical basis, though expectations DIs suggest a further deceleration, the only bright spot being that Large Industry CapEx expectations remained robust at 13.4% y/y (Q2 13.6%). In terms of the China import tariff cuts, there are three aspects which need to be considered: a) there will be many that interpret the move as offsetting rising producer costs due to the earlier slide in the CNY, and some will argue that it may presage further weakness (be that intentional, 'benign neglect', or due to USD rate related strength. b) It probably does owe a lot to the deceleration in industrial profits (see chart), which measures easing winter output curbs normally imposed to curb environmental damage (above all smog), again fitting with the squeeze on margins due to the aforementioned pressures, as well as authorities efforts to curb debt and leverage. c) At the margin, a form of olive branch to the US in respect of the current trade tensions, though the areas targeted for cuts suggest this is rather less likely, even if they might be touted as such in propaganda terms. In passing, it should also be noted that the NBS Services PMI posted another solid gain to 54.9 from 54.2, underlining that rebalancing remains under way and visible, paced above all above by the technology sector, most notably fintech.

In terms of the remaining European and Americas Manufacturing PMIs, the focus will still be on how much Trade tensions are weighing on sector sentiment, as appeared to be evident in the French and German flash PMIs (and indeed the special KC Fed Manufacturing survey on the subject), with forecasts see Italy Manufacturing in stall territory (50.2), with Spain and UK edging down (52.6 and 52,5 respectively, while the US Manufacturing ISM seen dipping only modestly from August's new cyclical high of 61.3 to 60.0, with particular attention needing to be paid to the Prices Paid component (forecast 71.4 vs. 72.1), given that weaker commodity prices (excluding oil) have not really had much impact in recent months, in no small part due to rising prices for finished products due to trade tensions.


Recap: The Week Ahead - Preview: 01 to 05 October 2018

A new quarter commences with the usual very familiar feel to the first week of the month's data schedule, featuring manufacturing and services PMIs, US & Canadian labour data, US Auto Sales, Japanese Wages and German Orders, with Japan's quarterly Tankan the other major item, and it will also be a busy week for Australian data that is accompanied by the monthly RBA meeting. Central bank speakers will be very plentiful, above all Fed (including Powell), though there are also ECB and BOE speakers. There are plenty of EM central bank rate decisions, with the focus on India, while Chinese markets will be closed all week for the National Day holidays. The Eurozone sees a slightly busier week with ca. EUR 15 Bln in govt bond auctions in France and Spain, with the UK re-opening its 2024 Gilt. The Corporate earnings schedule is very modest, as is seasonally typical, though Tesco in the UK and Acuity Brands, Costco, Constellation Brands, Lennar and Pepisco across the pond will garner some attention. As has been the case for most of the year, politics and trade tensions will doubtless be good for some market moving headlines, with the ruling UK Conservative Party holding its annual conference as party internal tensions over Brexit negotiations reach their crescendo, with speculation about a move to depose PM May as party leader having done the rounds for a number of weeks. The Italian Budget drama will continue, with the key points being not only that it inevitably raise tensions with the EU, but also that the initial projection of 2.4% could rise as the Budget Bill is debated in parliament. For some thoughts on UK and Italy and markets reaction function to political risk, please see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tc1tu9xrd2g&feature=youtu.be . US politics and trade tensions will of course continue to provide plenty of newswire fodder, but a close eye also needs to be kept on what have been difficult EU-Swiss negotiations on a new trade treaty, which the EU has set a deadline of mid-October to conclude.

- Having digested Monday's Manufacturing Services PMIs are expected to sustain stronger levels by comparison, and in most cases seeing little or no change relative to August for Eurozone and UK, while the US Non-manufacturing ISM is seen marginally lower at 58.0, but still strong by any historical standard. US labour data forecasts look quite rather familiar feel to them with Payrolls seen up 188K, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to dip back down to its cyclical low of 3.8%. But it will as ever be Average Hourly Earnings that gets most attention, the more so after the 0.4% m/m jump to 2./9% y/y in August, with the consensus looking for 0.3% m/m, which thanks to base effects would edge the y/y rate lower to 2.8% y/y. Overall this will make for another strong report, though with few signs that wage pressures (above all in real terms) are really building up, as yet, despite plenty of signs of skills shortages in many sectors. One area that requires particular attention will be trade services, above all transport, given clear signals from last week's goods trade data that the trade war with China is starting to have an impact on volumes, above all in Food, Feed & Beverages. After soft readings in July and August, US Auto Sales are again forecast to pick up to a 16.9 Mln SAAR pace, in part seasonal (Labor Day generally gives sales a boost), and Construction Spending to rebound to 0.5% m/m, after weakness in June (-0.8%) and July (+0.1%).

Japan's Household Spending is expected to remain subdued at just 0.1% y/y, but it will be Labor Cash Earnings (wages) which attracts most attention, and expected to decelerate even further after the June spike, with August seen at 1.3% y/y from 1.6% in nominal terms, but down to 0.0% y/y in real terms (July 0.5%). German Factory Orders will be of particular interest, having registered a fall in six of the past seven months, and with the Capital Goods sector effectively in recession given a year to date fall of -8.0%. The Consensus looks for a modest rebound of 0.7% m/m, which would fit with the message from the Ifo survey, but forecasters have been looking for a meaningful rebound since April, which has thus far failed to materialize, with the latest Bundesbank monthly report pinning the blame on the woes of the auto sector. UK data is largely of the second division variety with PMIs accompanied by BRC Shop Prices, SMMT New Car Registrations, Halifax and Nationwide House Prices, though Consumer Credit bears some scrutiny after the strong Retail Sales data, with a rebound to a £1.3 Bln pace seen after an unexpected drop to £800 Mln in July. Q2 Labour Costs are also due, but it remains the case that all UK data is subordinate to news on Brexit negotiations progress.

- Australia's RBA is very unsurprisingly expected to hold rates at 1.50%, and signal again that a rate hike remains a very distant prospect, above all with inflation very well behaved at the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target range, and wage growth also very subdued. Given that the domestic banking sector is embroiled in a major scandal, for which a 'royal inquiry' has been launched, the RBA has rather bigger fish to fry on the macro-prudential front, and in that sense is probably relieved that monetary policy can be left in neutral for a further protracted period. A very busy week for Fed speakers has a speech on the economic and policy outlook by Powell as its highlight, though he is unlikely to say anything materially different to what was said at the FOMC press conference. It will be interesting to see whether any of the rest of the Fed speakers show any signs of dissent, which outside of hardline doves Bullard & Kashkari has not been notable by its absence. In the EM space India's RBI is seen hiking rates by 25 bps to 6.50% (Reverse Repo) and 6.75% (Repo), while keep the Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%, with higher oil prices, a weak INR and a solid pace of growth offering a sound rationale. That said, the default woes of infrastructure lender IL&FS following hot on the heels of the PNB fraud imply that there will be more interest in what measures the RBI continues to undertake to ensure liquidity in its banking sector and bond market, as well as the Finance Ministry's efforts to stem the fall in the INR. Elsewhere, rates are expected to be unchanged in Iceland, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka and Uganda.

Other items of note on the week's schedule include the Quebec election (see: https://montrealgazette.com/news/qu...c-solidaire-turn-good-vibes-into-actual-votes ), an informal meeting of EU Trade ministers doubtless focussing on EU/US trade relations, and the end of week regional / municipal elections in the Czech Republic.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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