- Quiet start to the week due to Asia & Nth America holidays, digesting
China Caixin Services PMI, German Industrial Production; Eurozone
Finance Ministers' meeting, ECB speak and Brexit negotiations round 5
- Week Ahead: US Retail Sales & CPI, China Trade Balance top data run,
Japan Orders, UK & Europe Trade and Industrial Production
- Week Ahead: IMF / World Bank meetings dominate, as domestic and
geopolitical tensions continue to cast a long shadow
- Week Ahead: start of US Q3 earnings season, relatively busy govt bond
auction schedule, monthly Oil and WASDE reports
- Charts: Iron Ore, SHFE Zinc and Turkish Lira/USD
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- On a separate note; At a loose end this evening?
You are cordially invited to listen to the N@ked Short Club, hosted by Dr. Stu (and with my participation)... live from the Burj-al-Phametric in Dubai on Monday, October 16th from 9-10pm on Resonance FM: 104.4FM within London, on Digital/ DAB in London and Brighton and also accessible worldwide via
www.resonancefm.com. One hour of loose talk about hedge funds and the state of the world plus poetry and heady music: No promotional agenda, no commercial intent... just Purest Alpha and Ponzi Bier in these interesting times.
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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The new week gets off to a slow start with holidays in Japan, South Korea, Canada and the US bond market likely to keep activity subdued, with political developments once again to the fore over the weekend. These range from the various demonstrations in Catalonia, the ostensible closing ranks exercise in the UK Conservative party and between Germany's CDU and CSU, to the breakdown in US/Turkish diplomatic relations. Statistically the drop in the Caixin version of China's Services PMI stands in sharp contrast to the 2 point jump in the official, and is probably best treated with a pinch of salt. The just published German Industrial Production perhaps unsurprisingly (given Friday's Orders data) smashed forecasts (0.9%/2.9%) at 2.6% m/m for a y/y gain of 4.7%, and suggests that Q3 GDP may well match Q2's 0.6% q/q. The rest of the day's schedule is unlikely to have more than a passing impact, featuring Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and Mexican CPI. On the policy side, the Eurozone Finance ministers' meeting is accompanied by some ECB speak, with the other highlight being the start of the next round of Brexit negotiations.
RECAP - The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 9 to 13 October 2017
- A run of first division G7 data dominates a not overwhelming statistical schedule. Topping the agenda are US Retail Sales, CPI and PPI, while China returns to the fray after the National Day/Autumn Festival Day holidays with Trade, which along with Industrial Production features heavily on the UK and Eurozone schedules, while Machinery Orders are likely to be the highlight in Japan.
- The IMF / World Bank annual meetings starting mid-week in Washington dominate the policy schedule, and are accompanied by the FOMC minutes. The former will of coruse see numerous speeches and press conferences, but also some tensions over the latest US Treasury proposals to roll back on the 'Volcker rule' and other post-GFC G20 banking regulations (see here for a summary - -
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-t...eport-aims-to-boost-u-s-markets-idUKKBN1CB2DU). The next round of UK/EU Brexit negotiations gets under way, as the UK Conservative party attempts to paper its all too obvious divisions on its negotiating position, and a mooted cabinet reshuffle by PM May.
- The US Q3 corporate earnings kicks off with the usual run of reports from the money centre banks (Citi, JP Morgan Chase inter alia). According to Factset:
• Earnings Growth: For Q3 2017, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 2.8%. Seven sectors are expected to report earnings growth for the quarter, led by the Energy sector.
• Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q3 2017 was 7.5%. Nine sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to downward revisions to earnings estimates, led by the Energy sector.
• Earnings Guidance: For Q3 2017, 76 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 42 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
- Commodity markets will look to the various EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports, and the US DoA WASDE reports on agricultural crop prospects
- Govt bond supply is dominated by the US with $56 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr, while the UK sells 20-yr, Germany 5-yr, and Italy holds its mid-month 3 & 7-yr and long dated BTP sale, while the Netherlands launches a new 7-yr.
from Marc Ostwald
