Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Index
scalp shorts only....there is no sign of a turn downwards
lookn at
failed signals.ie failed pump
#or
overextension.ie a pole
or
a bad bounce off a pivot
yu aint gonna get anything else on the short side...uneless it keels over...no sign of that yet
as we said..if you are too bearish...stay in bed...otherwise enjoy the ride
first sign of anything nasty is a break of trend on 1 minute...we shall be lookin for that
scalp shorts only....there is no sign of a turn downwards
lookn at
failed signals.ie failed pump
#or
overextension.ie a pole
or
a bad bounce off a pivot
yu aint gonna get anything else on the short side...uneless it keels over...no sign of that yet
as we said..if you are too bearish...stay in bed...otherwise enjoy the ride
first sign of anything nasty is a break of trend on 1 minute...we shall be lookin for that
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- 3,726
- US labour report dominates the schedule, though better Japan Wages and
strong German Orders data continue week's run of robust data worldwide;
Central bank speakers plentiful, while politics (US/Iran, UK, Spain)
continues to cast a long shadow; US bonds on holiday on Monday
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings: basic pay still subdued, but bonus and overtime
payments suggest tight labour market starting to provide some impetus
- German Orders: broad based strength echoes surveys, implies solid pace
of industrial production through to the end of the year
- US Payrolls: hurricane effects set to drag, but ADP and survey data
imply upside risks relative to forecasts; watch August (upward) revision
- US Average Hourly Earnings: the likely focal point in the absence of a
payrolls surprise, y/y rate seen unchanged, leaving Fed room for manoeuvre
- Charts: Metals, USD Index, US 10yr yield, JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's the first Friday of the month, so it is time for US Payrolls bingo, though there are number of other statistical items of note, ranging from the overnight Japan Labor Cash Earnings and German Factory Orders to Canada's labour data and Brazil's IPCA IBGE inflation. Otherwise it is another day that is long on central bank speakers via way of a bevy of Fed speakers, ECB's Villeroy and more from BoE's Haldane provide, with US bond markets also likely to look for a swift conclusion to the post Payrolls proceedings, given Monday's Columbus Day holiday (equities will be open). Eminently the other hit topic of the moment, the aftermath of the Catalonian referendum, will continue to be a feeding frenzy for financial markets chattering classes, with the constitutional court yesterday formally suspending Monday's session of the Catalan parliament, and DBRS due to publish its ratings review today. However, it may be the relatively swift response of the Catalan banking sector (Caixa and Sabadell) to examine relocating their HQs outside of the region, which may prove to be a rather more potent influence on how this crisis pans out. Indeed politics will continue to cast a long shadow the post Catalonia referendum mess through the leadership woes of UK PM to Trump's insistence on trying to break as many treaties that the USA has signed up to, with the Iran nuclear deal the latest to be threatened with decertification, and few signs that he is capable of escaping of the shackles of his penchant for behaving like a baby throwing a screaming tantrum. As for Mrs May, her days would appear to be numbered, but she is not the problem, even if she has shown all the classic characteristics of the Peter Principle, i.e. being promoted to one's own level of incompetence. The fact remains that unless the Conservative government can unite behind a single Brexit negotiating position, then those negotiations would appear to be doomed to failure.
The overnight run of data from Japan and Germany serves as yet another reminder, after the run of robust US data this week, that the world economy is in good health, with special bonus payments and overtime giving a welcome boost to Japanese wage data, even if basic pay continues rather lacklustre. German Orders data confirm that the strength seen in surveys is no optical illusion with the strongest y/y reading at 7.8% since December's 8.9%, and per see suggesting that industrial production should be solid through to the end of the year.
** U.S.A. - September Labour report **
- If Payrolls are always to be treated with a hefty pinch of salt, due to the often hefty revisions, then today's report should in principle be largely ignored, whatever the outcome. But it will not be, unless it is fairly close to consensus forecasts, which are themselves little more than even bigger guesstimates than usual. The September ADP report (135K) should as ever be treated with caution in terms of a read across to Payrolls, though the comparison with the impact of prior major hurricanes is perhaps instructive, in so far as Katrina saw the ADP fall by 8K when it had been averaging around 200K, while Sandy saw a very similar 130K against a prior average around 190K. As such the 80K consensus for Payrolls looks to be "under clubbed", though it is worth noting that this month's ADP report highlighted a sharp hit to Services employment (96K down on August) being offset by solid gains for Construction (doubtless partly post hurricane reconstruction related) and Manufacturing, trends which should be echoed by the official data. Be that as it may, there is also the small, or maybe not so small, matter of the size of the likely upward revision to August's Payrolls (156K). Outside of the Payrolls noise, the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 4.4%, though the Underemployment Rate may be the more interesting item; this has been 'stuck' around 8.6% for four of the past five months. But as ever, it is the Average Hourly Earnings reading which will probably attract most attention, and is expected to post a 0.3% m/m again, leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 2.5%. Average Weekly Hours are seen at 34.4, though these may also see distortions from the hurricanes. So how does this play out in terms of Fed policy expectations? Perhaps only at the margin, given the majority on the FOMC remain very keen to reiterate their support for the current dot plot rate trajectory.
from MARC OSTWALD
strong German Orders data continue week's run of robust data worldwide;
Central bank speakers plentiful, while politics (US/Iran, UK, Spain)
continues to cast a long shadow; US bonds on holiday on Monday
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings: basic pay still subdued, but bonus and overtime
payments suggest tight labour market starting to provide some impetus
- German Orders: broad based strength echoes surveys, implies solid pace
of industrial production through to the end of the year
- US Payrolls: hurricane effects set to drag, but ADP and survey data
imply upside risks relative to forecasts; watch August (upward) revision
- US Average Hourly Earnings: the likely focal point in the absence of a
payrolls surprise, y/y rate seen unchanged, leaving Fed room for manoeuvre
- Charts: Metals, USD Index, US 10yr yield, JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's the first Friday of the month, so it is time for US Payrolls bingo, though there are number of other statistical items of note, ranging from the overnight Japan Labor Cash Earnings and German Factory Orders to Canada's labour data and Brazil's IPCA IBGE inflation. Otherwise it is another day that is long on central bank speakers via way of a bevy of Fed speakers, ECB's Villeroy and more from BoE's Haldane provide, with US bond markets also likely to look for a swift conclusion to the post Payrolls proceedings, given Monday's Columbus Day holiday (equities will be open). Eminently the other hit topic of the moment, the aftermath of the Catalonian referendum, will continue to be a feeding frenzy for financial markets chattering classes, with the constitutional court yesterday formally suspending Monday's session of the Catalan parliament, and DBRS due to publish its ratings review today. However, it may be the relatively swift response of the Catalan banking sector (Caixa and Sabadell) to examine relocating their HQs outside of the region, which may prove to be a rather more potent influence on how this crisis pans out. Indeed politics will continue to cast a long shadow the post Catalonia referendum mess through the leadership woes of UK PM to Trump's insistence on trying to break as many treaties that the USA has signed up to, with the Iran nuclear deal the latest to be threatened with decertification, and few signs that he is capable of escaping of the shackles of his penchant for behaving like a baby throwing a screaming tantrum. As for Mrs May, her days would appear to be numbered, but she is not the problem, even if she has shown all the classic characteristics of the Peter Principle, i.e. being promoted to one's own level of incompetence. The fact remains that unless the Conservative government can unite behind a single Brexit negotiating position, then those negotiations would appear to be doomed to failure.
The overnight run of data from Japan and Germany serves as yet another reminder, after the run of robust US data this week, that the world economy is in good health, with special bonus payments and overtime giving a welcome boost to Japanese wage data, even if basic pay continues rather lacklustre. German Orders data confirm that the strength seen in surveys is no optical illusion with the strongest y/y reading at 7.8% since December's 8.9%, and per see suggesting that industrial production should be solid through to the end of the year.
** U.S.A. - September Labour report **
- If Payrolls are always to be treated with a hefty pinch of salt, due to the often hefty revisions, then today's report should in principle be largely ignored, whatever the outcome. But it will not be, unless it is fairly close to consensus forecasts, which are themselves little more than even bigger guesstimates than usual. The September ADP report (135K) should as ever be treated with caution in terms of a read across to Payrolls, though the comparison with the impact of prior major hurricanes is perhaps instructive, in so far as Katrina saw the ADP fall by 8K when it had been averaging around 200K, while Sandy saw a very similar 130K against a prior average around 190K. As such the 80K consensus for Payrolls looks to be "under clubbed", though it is worth noting that this month's ADP report highlighted a sharp hit to Services employment (96K down on August) being offset by solid gains for Construction (doubtless partly post hurricane reconstruction related) and Manufacturing, trends which should be echoed by the official data. Be that as it may, there is also the small, or maybe not so small, matter of the size of the likely upward revision to August's Payrolls (156K). Outside of the Payrolls noise, the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 4.4%, though the Underemployment Rate may be the more interesting item; this has been 'stuck' around 8.6% for four of the past five months. But as ever, it is the Average Hourly Earnings reading which will probably attract most attention, and is expected to post a 0.3% m/m again, leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 2.5%. Average Weekly Hours are seen at 34.4, though these may also see distortions from the hurricanes. So how does this play out in terms of Fed policy expectations? Perhaps only at the margin, given the majority on the FOMC remain very keen to reiterate their support for the current dot plot rate trajectory.
from MARC OSTWALD
Moneylender
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Morning all
I see someone is working his new i7 very hard!
I see someone is working his new i7 very hard!
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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I7 or the 16gig ram makes life alot easier...the replot takes nanoseconds..no hanging around
Dentalfloss
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oil in a pivot area 50.80
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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cable gettin supported
ditto eurusd
our 12970 pivot workin...goin either way
ditto eurusd
our 12970 pivot workin...goin either way
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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GBp takin a hammerin
