Trading the ES (E mini) December 2003

[stoploss please]

The SOX

The SOX was bullish all day. Rebounding off its MA and making HLs. The LH did concern me at 12.35.

 

[china white]

lads/lasses - the way i traded it - we were exceptionally lucky to get a LP test on a trend up day with sox leading comp and bix leading spx. does not happen too often. on such a day u r happy if u get 40 ema test. one trade today - L @ 98 into the close.

 

[china white]

2 general thoughts

1) I think 1150 is pretty much on the cards now, both from Andrew's analysis (see chart) and the fact that 1150 is the 50% fib retracement of this bearmrkt.

2) A rather good article from David Nichols - one of the few reasonable lads at 21centuryfutures imo :cheesy: enjoy!

quote:

there is a historical precedent for asset classes like stocks and real estate to have a value re-rating upwards as the value of the underlying currency is dropping. That's a pretty natural price mechanism, if you think about it. There could be some of this in play right now among asset classes that are on the rise. It's just a relative thing.

But at some point, if the dollar keeps falling in relation to the currencies of the rest of the world -- and to gold and silver, as well -- then we'll all be facing a problem. We'll be holding lots of paper that's not going to get us what we thought it would.

This dollar/stock divergence could just be the big story of 2004. In 2003, nobody seemed to care too much, but going forward this is going to a period where we have to pay as much attention to the value of a buck as to the value of the stocks you can buy with that buck.

There are lots of forces in the world that would like to see the dollar fall from grace as the global reserve currency -- after all, what do you think the Euro is all about, other than that? -- and with the fiscal course we are currently on, such a loss of status for the dollar as the global reserve currency is a distinct possibility. That would be a very big deal, and we'll have to pay attention.

end of quote

 

[stoploss please]

Fib

I posted a daily chart of the S&P on the 5/12 with possible positive reversals based on fib levels. Just looking back at it now, it just shows you what a powerfull tool fib is. The S&P reversed to positive at 1052 being its 50% retracement. My initial target for this current up move is still 1120 which I think is the top of the channel that China has drawn.

 

[china white]

well mate how many ppl who lived back in the 12th century r now remembered? i personally do not know any1 apart from Signor Fibonacci!

 

[a320]

stoploss... the ratio's of phi are excellent :cheesy:

Great thread guys..it good to see how we all interpret different things..Have you been checking out the other es thread :cheesy:
Back to lurking....

Cheers

CJ

 

[stoploss please]

30/12

This mornings Tick action.

 

[china white]

well time well wasted after about 11:30 happy and profitable NY 2 all u lot! truly honoured to hv met u all in 2003! cheers all

 

[stoploss please]

Same to you China and every one else out there.

 

[Quercus]

Happy New Year to all who follow this thread. Thanks for all the help in '03!
Cheers
Q

 

[hampy]

INDEED!
Looking forward to working with you all in the New year.
Here's to a really profitable 2004 :cheesy:
Cheers,
hampy

 

[mark_m]

It's been great fellas, here's to more of the same in 04.
Happy New Year
Mark

 

[hillbillie]

where da board?

where's it gone m8?

 

[china white]

shall we do Trading ES Q1 2004 board? I'd be up for that

 

[eminem]

How about a monthly (like the forex ones) or weekly thread (like Chartmans Dow one)? Its in manageable chunks then.

 

[stoploss please]

Hi guys.

Whats been happening. I have not been around that much.

 

[frugi]

Hi slp,

The thread has moved here for the New Year in case you haven't tracked it down.

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8122

Also you may like No Indicators Revisited as supplementary fodder

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7751