Trade what you see, not what you think....

[Shakone]

Well the interesting thing, there's never been a retail trader on any forum that has proved they have a working automated system.

I have elaborated now but the point is, that your chances of making an automated system work are zero if you don't know how to trade. If you tried to automate driving in traffic without ever having drive, the results would be similar.

In fact, when you drive now - you don't even think about driving, it has become automatic. This is the ultimate end game in skills development.

Most people that go the automation route do so because that is where there skills lie, it's engineers mostly. Their skills are in this area and so they try to leverage these skills to do something they would NEVER think of doing in their field - building something they don't know how to design.

Now - can someone that can trade automate trading? That is a different discussion.

I think if you want to look for a parallel - look to get someone to automate poker, including the bluffing.



Practice is 'doing the skill' - repetition. It develops implicit memory. Reading, study does not do that believe it or not...

HowStuffWorks "Memory Retrieval"


This is the crux of the skill vs non-skill argument lies - in the way we learn. This is why I selected those specific examples.

The skill is based on - some form of - analysis and execution, agreed? Reading, thinking, bouncing ideas off others, staring at charts, backtesting, can all improve the analysis part. Since that is a key part of the skill, then yes the skill can be improved by doing them. After all, you're not claiming to have invented the term value area yourself are you. Nor market profile. Another trader told you to look at the DOM and so on. So looking back, didn't that conversation, and didn't that reading help your analysis, which then helped you in the skill of trading?

I agree that you chances of making an automated system work when you don't know what you are doing is practically zero. But that wasn't what I argued with. I argued with you saying people doing the list of things you quoted do not consider it a skill.

 

[random12345]

A quick look at the screen shots , lets say around 5+ trades/Day = 110 a month = 1320/year lets say it is 1200 and the spread+slippage = 3 , i see that it is FXcm's so it should be more than 3 but anyway the Dow will cost you spread + slippage at least 3 points on average = 3600 points in costs :-0 , so if you can catch 3600 points on the Dow you will break even , if you can catch 7200 points your net profits would be just 3600 points same what you've paid in spread and slippage , and if your ups= downs 50/50 you will end down 3600 points :whistling

Tar, you should give up, I once tried to explain that by trading greater than a certain number of times in a day means you're eating up the net movement of an instrument in spread, commission and slippage costs alone, and that at best you're looking to pick up the gross move in between waves, something hideously difficult at retail level.

Even that was a waste of my time so anything more nuanced is a waste of yours... why bother.

Stopless small wins is an insane method. Stopless key reversal TA with somewhat dynamic exits is workable... has been done by human institutional traders for a long time hence the references to them being sat on huge losers from time to time waiting for a turnaround, but it's a silly idea for most retail traders. Perhaps someone with CV's experience can make it work, but it's not the easiest route and one of the more dangerous methods out there.

 

[DionysusToast]

The skill is based on - some form of - analysis and execution, agreed? Reading, thinking, bouncing ideas off others, staring at charts, backtesting, can all improve the analysis part. Since that is a key part of the skill, then yes the skill can be improved by doing them. After all, you're not claiming to have invented the term value area yourself are you. Nor market profile. Another trader told you to look at the DOM and so on. So looking back, didn't that conversation, and didn't that reading help your analysis, which then helped you in the skill of trading?

I agree - you need to learn something and then practice it.

And you are right that I got told certain things and stuck at them.

The interesting thing is that something made me stick with certain things and looking back I am not sure why. Perhaps it was faith in the people who told me those things or maybe the fact that they made some sense in a 'real world' way.

I do remember paying for information that sounded great but that fell at the first hurdle. One was an opening range breakout system, I'd never heard of such a thing at the time and it turned out the guy was fudging his results. The thing is - as a novice, once I'd been told what to do, it took me about a week to figure out it wouldn't work. It was 100% mechanical so disproving it was easy enough.

Turns out the guys I listened to the most where the ones whose concepts I couldn't actually disprove.

I agree that you chances of making an automated system work when you don't know what you are doing is practically zero. But that wasn't what I argued with. I argued with you saying people doing the list of things you quoted do not consider it a skill.

Well - let's look at the list again.

- try to program it before they could do it
- use combinations of indicators to tell them when to trade
- buy EAs
- subscribe to alert services
- read candlesticks :whistling
- look at fractals
- use digital signal processing techniques and write books about applying them to time price series - and get lauded for it


Maybe it's not clear enough but I was trying to specifically cover the people looking for a 'magic combo' that 'solves' trading for them and then let's them trade without thinking.

The last example is Ehler. Anyone that has read his book on trading will marvel at how far removed it is from trading.

 

[DionysusToast]

Tar, you should give up, I once tried to explain that by trading greater than a certain number of times in a day means you're eating up the net movement of an instrument in spread, commission and slippage costs alone, and that at best you're looking to pick up the gross move in between waves, something hideously difficult at retail level.

I do agree with that. You really need membership/institutional commissions and a bit of size behind you to make that work.

On the other hand there's always going to be days where it takes you some time to establish a position. Look at the past few weeks on the ES. It's been quite tricky in my opinion. On those days, I tend to be getting in and out more trying to find a sweet spot. 5 or 6 trades would not be unusual on those days.

I could never, ever put in a sting of winners like that, it would be impossible for me to do. I swing & hit, swing & miss, swing and hit etc. etc. I'd be surprised if I'd ever put in 20 winners in a row.

So C_V - you letting doing a Howard on us here?

If so - what are the 4 and 8 quid trades - are they the ones that made you so nervous you bailed on the first forward excursion?

 

[counter_violent]

The instruments, currency sides, index's, commods etc can be organised in such a way as to present a big picture view of what is really going on in the markets.

Against this backdrop, it is possible to select trades either as part of a group or individually. It is also possible to manage any open trades as and when the whole market, or a group lines up in such a manner that you really have no option but to act.

Organisation of information also allows you to see both ways at the same time.

Lets consider what your average Joe might do. He trades one instrument and trades one or two or more set ups on that instrument. He has been told by those with more wisdom than he, that this is the way to do things. ( Get to know your instrument inside out) (Use tight stops and cut losses and run winners) and all of the other stuff that we hear trotted out adinfinitum. Then he is told he needs to measure everything and record his "performance statistics" in order that he can analyse these and tighten up on weaknesses etc etc. Now all of this is fine and is all part of the learning process, but, the truth is he will never get through the glass ceiling, which is where the real spoils are to be found.

The only way to attain these spoils is to get your thinking so far outside of the box, that you forget what a box even looks like

Tar makes very good points about how to view the markets.

you cant make money just by following 1 , 2 , 3 steps , that's so stupid , whether it is PA , TA , DOM it doesn't matter you can easily make money until you don't , markets are dynamic and competitive , you need something adaptable and dynamic and has some sort of edge built in it

 

[random12345]

I do agree with that. You really need membership/institutional commissions and a bit of size behind you to make that work.

On the other hand there's always going to be days where it takes you some time to establish a position. Look at the past few weeks on the ES. It's been quite tricky in my opinion. On those days, I tend to be getting in and out more trying to find a sweet spot. 5 or 6 trades would not be unusual on those days.

I could never, ever put in a sting of winners like that, it would be impossible for me to do. I swing & hit, swing & miss, swing and hit etc. etc. I'd be surprised if I'd ever put in 20 winners in a row.

So C_V - you letting doing a Howard on us here?

If so - what are the 4 and 8 quid trades - are they the ones that made you so nervous you bailed on the first forward excursion?

Agree that the ES is a different animal and even retail traders can scale in and out. I've mentioned before that most UK people start out with forex because they don't have CME access through a UK broker (and the cash S&P they do have access to has a crazy spread and no DOM), which is a shame as there's nothing more transparent that I know of than the ES for retail people.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

A quick look at the screen shots , lets say around 5+ trades/Day = 110 a month = 1320/year lets say it is 1200 and the spread+slippage = 3 , i see that it is FXcm's so it should be more than 3 but anyway the Dow will cost you spread + slippage at least 3 points on average = 3600 points in costs :-0 , so if you can catch 3600 points on the Dow you will break even , if you can catch 7200 points your net profits would be just 3600 points same what you've paid in spread and slippage , and if your ups= downs 50/50 you will end down 3600 points :whistling

Tar, you have made a big assumption that CV enters on market orders;

Now change your scenario to limit only, and see what the results will be?

Viable to say the least

 

[BeginnerJoe]

through the glass ceiling, which is where the real spoils are to be found.

You aught to show us some of that spoils. The stuff you have shown so far are just kiddie stuff. This is why I was asking about scaling up - whether through magnitude or through breadth make no difference.

 

[tar]

Tar, you have made a big assumption that CV enters on market orders;

Now change your scenario to limit only, and see what the results will be?

Viable to say the least

It is a SB account so limit orders will eliminate the slippage but not the spread , and if you always trade with limit orders you are going to miss some points here and there , so if you are playing directional you should account for that as well , lets say it is just the spread , no games no delays no slippage , average spread on Dow is 2 and maybe more with some brokers , other instruments spread is more than 2 , so that is at least 2400 points in cost ...

 

[counter_violent]

You aught to show us some of that spoils. The stuff you have shown so far are just kiddie stuff. This is why I was asking about scaling up - whether through magnitude or through breadth make no difference.

I'll just let you know this.

Already it's possible that I will need to shoot myself.

Now run along get creative and busy, for it's the only way your going to get anywhere.

 

[15 min tlb]

A quick look at the screen shots , lets say around 5+ trades/Day = 110 a month = 1320/year lets say it is 1200 and the spread+slippage = 3 , i see that it is FXcm's so it should be more than 3 but anyway the Dow will cost you spread + slippage at least 3 points on average = 3600 points in costs :-0 , so if you can catch 3600 points on the Dow you will break even , if you can catch 7200 points your net profits would be just 3600 points same what you've paid in spread and slippage , and if your ups= downs 50/50 you will end down 3600 points :whistling

Along with that method , apply a second method of scalping skimming 3 to 4 pips both long and short ,that will give you 8 extra pips from wind and noise , maybe 8 to 10 times a day ,whilst the novices are looking for the 3600 pips , the PRO is making 60 pips a day or 1200 pips a month + 3600 - 3600 =1200 pips a month.Nobody can teach you these skills to beat the market or become a master.

Market ranges 80 % of the time , that is where most traders fail , and lose what they make in trends.As I have always said " successful traders don't hang around forums" , just learners ,amateurs ,internet marketeers and game wardens.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/166670-8-methods-consistent-profitability.html

 

[15 min tlb]

Tar, you should give up, I once tried to explain that by trading greater than a certain number of times in a day means you're eating up the net movement of an instrument in spread, commission and slippage costs alone, and that at best you're looking to pick up the gross move in between waves, something hideously difficult at retail level.

Even that was a waste of my time so anything more nuanced is a waste of yours... why bother.

Stopless small wins is an insane method. Stopless key reversal TA with somewhat dynamic exits is workable... has been done by human institutional traders for a long time hence the references to them being sat on huge losers from time to time waiting for a turnaround, but it's a silly idea for most retail traders. Perhaps someone with CV's experience can make it work, but it's not the easiest route and one of the more dangerous methods out there.

Behind every intelligent trader is an ordinary trader trying to express his wisdom.

 

[random12345]

Behind every intelligent trader is an ordinary trader trying to express his wisdom.

Speak plainly you crazy old toad, I don't follow your point.

 

[tar]

Along with that method , apply a second method of scalping skimming 3 to 4 pips both long and short ,that will give you 8 extra pips from wind and noise , maybe 8 to 10 times a day ,whilst the novices are looking for the 3600 pips , the PRO is making 60 pips a day or 1200 pips a month + 3600 - 3600 =1200 pips a month.Nobody can teach you these skills to beat the market or become a master.

Market ranges 80 % of the time , that is where most traders fail , and lose what they make in trends.As I have always said " successful traders don't hang around forums" , just learners ,amateurs ,internet marketeers and game wardens.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/166670-8-methods-consistent-profitability.html

You can imagine how much your costs would be if you are scalping 10-20 times a day ouch !

 

[15 min tlb]

You can imagine how much your costs would be if you are scalping 10-20 times a day ouch !

Let me give by example .It does not matter what you pay , as long as you get more out of the market.So you pay 3 pips twenty times a day and collect 8 , that is still 5 pips more in your pocket.

In real life I sell commodity products , I often buy from other wholesalers and pay their price , as long as my customer is willing to give me a profit.I don't sit down negatively and complain , the wholesaler is too expensive and it is costing too much to be worthwhile.I still pay over the odds and run a business.No glass is half empty , it is always half full , some of these trades take 2 minutes.

Make hay while the sun is shinning , that is real trading.I also run 20 % losing strategies ,and 80 % profitable strategies as well as the scalping.The few marginal pips add up , as long as risks are calculated.

 

[tar]

Let me give by example .It does not matter what you pay , as long as you get more out of the market.So you pay 3 pips twenty times a day and collect 8 , that is still 5 pips more in your pocket.

In real life I sell commodity products , I often buy from other wholesalers and pay their price , as long as my customer is willing to give me a profit.I don't sit down negatively and complain , the wholesaler is too expensive and it is costing too much to be worthwhile.I still pay over the odds and run a business.No glass is half empty , it is always half full , some of these trades take 2 minutes.

Make hay while the sun is shinning , that is real trading.I also run 20 % losing strategies ,and 80 % profitable strategies as well as the scalping.The few marginal pips add up , as long as risks are calculated.

Dont underestimate the costs , that's a very important point , the more you pay the more the odds are against you . Lets take a look at your example , as a product seller you buy at the wholesale price ( bid ) and sell at retail's ( Ask ) , in trading its the way round you buy at the ask and sell at the bid , huge difference , in that case in your example the more you trade the more you make money cuz you are earning the spread not paying it !

 

[counter_violent]

Dont underestimate the costs , that's a very important point , the more you pay the more the odds are against you . Lets take a look at your example , as a product seller you buy at the wholesale price ( bid ) and sell at retail's ( Ask ) , in trading its the way round you buy at the ask and sell at the bid , huge difference , in that case in your example the more you trade the more you make money cuz you are earning the spread not paying it !

I agree that keeping an eye on costs is important but they do fall into the category of "performance statistics" On their own, they can only marginally improve the bottom line.

 

[random12345]

Make hay while the sun is shinning , that is real trading.I also run 20 % losing strategies ,and 80 % profitable strategies as well as the scalping.The few marginal pips add up , as long as risks are calculated.

Your insane rhetoric is improving, the longer you spend on these forums. You're learning how to sound a tiny bit more convincing, though with gaping holes in your knowledge such as the above.

I preferred it when you doctored your IG statements as there was some proud innocence in that, especially given the fundamental errors made... it was at least amusing. Now you're just the same old crazy coot who is less funny and I don't understand why it's tolerated by the moderators if I'm honest.

Sorry.

 

[15 min tlb]

Dont underestimate the costs , that's a very important point , the more you pay the more the odds are against you . Lets take a look at your example , as a product seller you buy at the wholesale price ( bid ) and sell at retail's ( Ask ) , in trading its the way round you buy at the ask and sell at the bid , huge difference , in that case in your example the more you trade the more you make money cuz you are earning the spread not paying it !

That is where intuition and sixth sense comes in , knowing the beats and your instrument ,knowing when and what to scalp .60 to 70 % of the time ,scalping pips is very easy , by doing with the support of the market.This is done without using position size variations , which if done correctly can increase daily profits.

A similar scalping method was used here with eas , but humans can do it better.It made 145k in 3 months , like 6,000 % a year.

Participants - Automated Trading Championship 2008

The more you skim out of the market , the better your odds.If you keep taking 5 pips ,30 to 40 times a day , the better your odds.It is not about giving more , but taking more.

 

[DionysusToast]

Let me give by example .It does not matter what you pay , as long as you get more out of the market.So you pay 3 pips twenty times a day and collect 8 , that is still 5 pips more in your pocket.

Aye but you don't need much of a degradation in performance to turn that into a pay the broker day or a losing day.

Always good to have a little buffer.