Thanks, that's a pretty clear roadmap on its own. If I were starting again, I'd devote more time to cycles. I'm settled into what I do these days. That said, this has huge value as an overlay for my own reading of things. Please let us know if you ever start a subscription service.
THT
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Great - Whatever works for you, we are all built differently - the aim is to profit, who cares how we do it, as long as its positive!
If you look at cycles start with Jim Hurst and Brian Millard - for the generic gist of things, but don't let them interrupt a profitable method, they have to add to it, not compete with it
I reckon I only know a fraction of what some out there know - there'll be some who can nail pretty much most swings in terms of price & time
I was just lucky in that I stumbled on cycles in 2010 and it made a bit of sense to me - enough to explore
Thanks for reading, appreciated
THT
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Quick look at the next possible LOW
PLEASE NOTE the fun and games that the market does on a 2 Dimensional price chart
This chart shows the 175/180 trading day cycle - With cycles you HAVE to calculate the LENGTH, the AMPLITUDE AND probably the most Important aspect the PHASING - the 1st chart below does just that to account for the 3D moves
This chart is not 100% exact, but it is pretty damn good - good enough anyway
The next low comes in DECEMBER'25
This is where it goes wrong on normal price charts
This is the cycle - the vertical lines are the corresponding cycle in the chart above
BUT notice the TIME BARS BETWEEN each cycle - they VARY - this is where it becomes guess work and we don't like guessing in this game/business!
Assuming the current sequence continues, this is the ZONE the static cycle should land within(GREEN and RED vertical lines
This is OK, but its fairly WIDE in TIME and has you second guessing
I appreciate you do not have the cycle software that I do, I just wanted to show you how it looks in the real 2D world we are forced to view price action on
Hopefully you can see why we often get those time counts that vary - my cycle software takes account of part of the 3 Dimensional nature at play
There's nothing wrong with this chart below - We can as shown place the expected min/max cycle timings on as vertical lines or we could place a timing band type Indicator on the chart
One thing is certain, "IF" the cycle continues, you'll get price declining below the 10 SMA into the cycle low and then above the 10 SMA out of it
So if/when you discover cycles - work out the min and max timing over a number of occurrences, that will give you timing bands to work within/watch for a cycle turn point etc
We don't know what type of price moves will follow, you could have straight up/down, laboured swings or even a tired lacklustre sideways move!
Which is why we need trading methods and plans & rules etc and the crucial stop
PLEASE NOTE the fun and games that the market does on a 2 Dimensional price chart
This chart shows the 175/180 trading day cycle - With cycles you HAVE to calculate the LENGTH, the AMPLITUDE AND probably the most Important aspect the PHASING - the 1st chart below does just that to account for the 3D moves
This chart is not 100% exact, but it is pretty damn good - good enough anyway
The next low comes in DECEMBER'25
This is where it goes wrong on normal price charts
This is the cycle - the vertical lines are the corresponding cycle in the chart above
BUT notice the TIME BARS BETWEEN each cycle - they VARY - this is where it becomes guess work and we don't like guessing in this game/business!
Assuming the current sequence continues, this is the ZONE the static cycle should land within(GREEN and RED vertical lines
This is OK, but its fairly WIDE in TIME and has you second guessing
I appreciate you do not have the cycle software that I do, I just wanted to show you how it looks in the real 2D world we are forced to view price action on
Hopefully you can see why we often get those time counts that vary - my cycle software takes account of part of the 3 Dimensional nature at play
There's nothing wrong with this chart below - We can as shown place the expected min/max cycle timings on as vertical lines or we could place a timing band type Indicator on the chart
One thing is certain, "IF" the cycle continues, you'll get price declining below the 10 SMA into the cycle low and then above the 10 SMA out of it
So if/when you discover cycles - work out the min and max timing over a number of occurrences, that will give you timing bands to work within/watch for a cycle turn point etc
We don't know what type of price moves will follow, you could have straight up/down, laboured swings or even a tired lacklustre sideways move!
Which is why we need trading methods and plans & rules etc and the crucial stop
Last edited:
Yes im intéressée too..🙂
THT
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No subscription plans - too much commitment on my side
Not sure on the 24th - not looked at short term recently
The "perfect" smoothed 3D cycle shown above BOTTOMS out on CHRISTMAS DAY
Until then that cycle is down - with down cycles you get down trends AND sideways moves, so it can go higher
I don't have an opinion on a top on 24th Nov - So far the market topped out along with the cycle, it also hit its head on these pre-projected geometrical levels off prior swing points
It's Impossible to be able to get EVERY swing - find something that works and just stick to it - then exploit it
This market could just go sideways, forming a range or it could go down to a retracement level - at this stage its not known, as price action unfolds, it will give clues - If it crashes hard and fast, then you can use the Gann Box angles to find support, if it slowly corrects then retracement levels, if sideways then just watch, at the end of the day, it should all align up with the cycle (If the cycle is applicable), then trends form on LOWER time-frames etc
I'm more Interested in the cycle LOW in DECEMBER'25, because some UK stocks are setting up BIG double/triple bottoms that I want to trade/Invest in one of my accounts - I'm happy to leave the minor swings of the markets at this point in time
Then the big one is next Spring'26 when the beast arrives - Last time it arrived it just fell a measly 7% - If it's the top before the 4 year low, then the fall should be fairly decent % terms
Again I'm just surmising based on knowledge - the market will show its hand accordingly at the time
Trade/Invest at ones own risk - not advice, just educational material! The old "risk" warning
Not sure on the 24th - not looked at short term recently
The "perfect" smoothed 3D cycle shown above BOTTOMS out on CHRISTMAS DAY
Until then that cycle is down - with down cycles you get down trends AND sideways moves, so it can go higher
I don't have an opinion on a top on 24th Nov - So far the market topped out along with the cycle, it also hit its head on these pre-projected geometrical levels off prior swing points
It's Impossible to be able to get EVERY swing - find something that works and just stick to it - then exploit it
This market could just go sideways, forming a range or it could go down to a retracement level - at this stage its not known, as price action unfolds, it will give clues - If it crashes hard and fast, then you can use the Gann Box angles to find support, if it slowly corrects then retracement levels, if sideways then just watch, at the end of the day, it should all align up with the cycle (If the cycle is applicable), then trends form on LOWER time-frames etc
I'm more Interested in the cycle LOW in DECEMBER'25, because some UK stocks are setting up BIG double/triple bottoms that I want to trade/Invest in one of my accounts - I'm happy to leave the minor swings of the markets at this point in time
Then the big one is next Spring'26 when the beast arrives - Last time it arrived it just fell a measly 7% - If it's the top before the 4 year low, then the fall should be fairly decent % terms
Again I'm just surmising based on knowledge - the market will show its hand accordingly at the time
Trade/Invest at ones own risk - not advice, just educational material! The old "risk" warning
THT
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This might help you a little with what and where the SP500 is heading to long term
We put a 37% swing file over price
Notice the 1970's price formation looks very similar to the 2000's - That because they are directly RELATED, we had a REPEAT - the REPEAT happens AGAIN from 2034
Notice the TIMING projection of the swings - its valid until 2034 - you have seen and read my predictions of 2034 previously in this very thread, those predictions were NOT made using this technique!
If and its a big if, price replicates the advance from 1974 to 2000, then we also have price projection levels seen - I'm 100% confident on TIME, less so on price, but it will be there or there abouts
you can very clearly see "buying the dips" works during the UP sections (when the swing file turns GREEN)
So you can see the big picture - what you would do NOW is use a 50% swing file, rather than 37% to suit the last % values of the swing DOWNS/CORRECTIONS
The only thing to seriously consider and note, is that to get the RED down swing to appear, price HAS to fall by 50% - so most of a move is already formed when the red line forms - this is why its key to KNOW by way of TIMING when these big turns are due, then you can just watch and wait for price action to make small formations in the direction of the anticipated price direction to appear and then trade them
You can devise your own trading strategy or Investments around this, all I'm showing you is how the SP500 has worked to swings of 37% since the 1970's - they key is the TIMING, as, once Time runs out, the trend changes and when trends change it also forces swing files to change that work out to that particular trend
As markets are fractal.................................
ALL markets will work out to some % swing file size and those % sizes will differ depending upon the time-frame looking at and to be fair the SP500 just moves great, nice and easy
Obviously with the SP500, the best time to buy and hold is on the 2nd down swing LOW - such as 1974 and 2009 - which circa 34 years apart - just add 34 to 2009 and you will be there or there abouts and you know that there should be at least 2 red down 50% moves after 2034 - So you can formulate something to work on and watch
The key is the TIMING, anything price action wise that seems to undermine the time analysis, will need to be looked at, as the TIMING is king here
We put a 37% swing file over price
Notice the 1970's price formation looks very similar to the 2000's - That because they are directly RELATED, we had a REPEAT - the REPEAT happens AGAIN from 2034
Notice the TIMING projection of the swings - its valid until 2034 - you have seen and read my predictions of 2034 previously in this very thread, those predictions were NOT made using this technique!
If and its a big if, price replicates the advance from 1974 to 2000, then we also have price projection levels seen - I'm 100% confident on TIME, less so on price, but it will be there or there abouts
you can very clearly see "buying the dips" works during the UP sections (when the swing file turns GREEN)
So you can see the big picture - what you would do NOW is use a 50% swing file, rather than 37% to suit the last % values of the swing DOWNS/CORRECTIONS
The only thing to seriously consider and note, is that to get the RED down swing to appear, price HAS to fall by 50% - so most of a move is already formed when the red line forms - this is why its key to KNOW by way of TIMING when these big turns are due, then you can just watch and wait for price action to make small formations in the direction of the anticipated price direction to appear and then trade them
You can devise your own trading strategy or Investments around this, all I'm showing you is how the SP500 has worked to swings of 37% since the 1970's - they key is the TIMING, as, once Time runs out, the trend changes and when trends change it also forces swing files to change that work out to that particular trend
As markets are fractal.................................
ALL markets will work out to some % swing file size and those % sizes will differ depending upon the time-frame looking at and to be fair the SP500 just moves great, nice and easy
Obviously with the SP500, the best time to buy and hold is on the 2nd down swing LOW - such as 1974 and 2009 - which circa 34 years apart - just add 34 to 2009 and you will be there or there abouts and you know that there should be at least 2 red down 50% moves after 2034 - So you can formulate something to work on and watch
The key is the TIMING, anything price action wise that seems to undermine the time analysis, will need to be looked at, as the TIMING is king here
THT
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I'll have some trades for you in 2026
Gann never revealed his MASTER TIME FACTOR, but its commonly believed that it was 60 years - We'll never know for sure
In a previous post about the 2022 BEAR market, I mentioned that the high and low followed the 60 year cycle
Just from human experience, I bet you could count on one hand how many people then went away to their charts and plotted out 60 year cycles from past key turning points - I might be totally wrong, but I doubt many did
This took me 10 mins to do from start to finish
A simple plot FORWARD in time 60 years from key turning points of the `1960's
As you can see the "mini" bear market of 2023, repeated the mini bear market of 1963!
Then we had a rally up, then a mini crash from 2023-2025, just like 1963-1965!!!!!
Then from the low in 2025 we've run UP just like the market in 1965-feb 1966!!!!!
DON'T take the dates literal - there is LEE-WAY around the dates - I'm just showing the generic picture
Traders from the 1960's made similar trading decisions back then as todays traders are doing!
So if you refer back to the 4 year cycle post - That post included the BEAST 666 cycle expectation for Spring 2026 - you will notice that the possible HIGH for end Jan'26 in this 60 year cycle expectation is there or there abouts in terms of TIME to fit into the BEAST cycle expectation
Then if you look at the low expectation for the 60 year cycle in 2026, we have Sept 2026 time - give a bit of lee-way around the date - As we ARE definitely expecting some sort of DECENT swing LOW in 2026, AFTER the beast cycle, then we now have a possible timing zone for the 4 year LOW cycle to END around, that we can use along with our other analysis on the 4 year cycle
Now I am just thinking out allowed here - I keep mentioning that "technically" the war cycle conditions have been met - a crash like 1966 would perfectly suit a crash associated with outbreak of a war - There is still "space to watch" around the war cycle, so you never know
This is Gann's LAW OF VIBRATION at work!
PS - This will NOT replicate the 1966-1982 period exactly, its not quite that easy! But we will get a "similar" high low sequence - the cycle that REPEATS 1966-1982 starts in 2034
As Humans, we are effectively receivers - our brains can only decode a certain frequency range, we know for instance that other light frequencies and sound frequencies exist, but we can't see them (decode), but we know they exist - Those planets are spitting out frequencies that cause humans to buy and sell in perfect harmony to time and price - we can't see them, but we can use price charts that show the cumulative buying and selling decisions of traders/Investors throughout history that seem to match certain planetary positions and moves uncannily - over the past 15 years, I have proved this to myself, whether you choose to accept it or ignore it is completely up to you
This is likely to be my last post before Christmas and the New Year
So thanks for reading the thread and have a great Christmas and New Year
Gann never revealed his MASTER TIME FACTOR, but its commonly believed that it was 60 years - We'll never know for sure
In a previous post about the 2022 BEAR market, I mentioned that the high and low followed the 60 year cycle
Just from human experience, I bet you could count on one hand how many people then went away to their charts and plotted out 60 year cycles from past key turning points - I might be totally wrong, but I doubt many did
This took me 10 mins to do from start to finish
A simple plot FORWARD in time 60 years from key turning points of the `1960's
As you can see the "mini" bear market of 2023, repeated the mini bear market of 1963!
Then we had a rally up, then a mini crash from 2023-2025, just like 1963-1965!!!!!
Then from the low in 2025 we've run UP just like the market in 1965-feb 1966!!!!!
DON'T take the dates literal - there is LEE-WAY around the dates - I'm just showing the generic picture
Traders from the 1960's made similar trading decisions back then as todays traders are doing!
So if you refer back to the 4 year cycle post - That post included the BEAST 666 cycle expectation for Spring 2026 - you will notice that the possible HIGH for end Jan'26 in this 60 year cycle expectation is there or there abouts in terms of TIME to fit into the BEAST cycle expectation
Then if you look at the low expectation for the 60 year cycle in 2026, we have Sept 2026 time - give a bit of lee-way around the date - As we ARE definitely expecting some sort of DECENT swing LOW in 2026, AFTER the beast cycle, then we now have a possible timing zone for the 4 year LOW cycle to END around, that we can use along with our other analysis on the 4 year cycle
Now I am just thinking out allowed here - I keep mentioning that "technically" the war cycle conditions have been met - a crash like 1966 would perfectly suit a crash associated with outbreak of a war - There is still "space to watch" around the war cycle, so you never know
This is Gann's LAW OF VIBRATION at work!
PS - This will NOT replicate the 1966-1982 period exactly, its not quite that easy! But we will get a "similar" high low sequence - the cycle that REPEATS 1966-1982 starts in 2034
As Humans, we are effectively receivers - our brains can only decode a certain frequency range, we know for instance that other light frequencies and sound frequencies exist, but we can't see them (decode), but we know they exist - Those planets are spitting out frequencies that cause humans to buy and sell in perfect harmony to time and price - we can't see them, but we can use price charts that show the cumulative buying and selling decisions of traders/Investors throughout history that seem to match certain planetary positions and moves uncannily - over the past 15 years, I have proved this to myself, whether you choose to accept it or ignore it is completely up to you
This is likely to be my last post before Christmas and the New Year
So thanks for reading the thread and have a great Christmas and New Year
BuddieBuddiee
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THT
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HAPPY NEW YEAR to all
Hope you all had a great Christmas and new years
Well the old war cycle has been well and truly cemented - It might not even be over either!
What the USA has done could be a perfect pre-cursor for a big nation to stick up for Venezuela
anyway it simply does not matter, it was forecasted decades ago, we can go around the circle multiple times now, to get future conflicts, some will be tiny, some big, you'll never know until they occur and pass
There's a lot that goes on under the radar, with a lot of people (usually most of the masses) scratching their heads as to how & why these things happen
OIL OIL OIL OIL OIL....................you get the picture!
If you go back to the last gulf war 2 in 2003, most people will most likely think that that gulf war 2 happened due to 9/11, it didn't, remember, we were ALL lied to by the UK and USA govts, Weapons of Mass Destruction (which were never found, because they didn't exist!) was used as the "convincer" to get politicians to agree and support a war - Saddam Hussain in 2000 decided to price OIL in EUROS, rather that the good old US Dollar, THAT, was the real reason for gulf war 2 invasion by the USA and if we look right NOW to Venezuela, guess what it is all about, OIL, under the pre-text of drugs, smuggling, justice etc, its all about the OIL
Once the rest of the world decides to decouple from the US Dollar, it will be game over for the mighty state - the question is, will they or won't they have the balls to ditch the US$?
Stock markets should be overall UP to MARCH time, then you have to watch them, 4 year cycle LOW expected in the months thereafter, which should create some sort a decent buying opportunity, this move down should be a mini bear market, the good news is right now the 175/180 day cycle is UP
The reason we did not have a great Santa Rally was due to the 175/180 day cycle being DOWN into it
Hope you all had a great Christmas and new years
Well the old war cycle has been well and truly cemented - It might not even be over either!
What the USA has done could be a perfect pre-cursor for a big nation to stick up for Venezuela
anyway it simply does not matter, it was forecasted decades ago, we can go around the circle multiple times now, to get future conflicts, some will be tiny, some big, you'll never know until they occur and pass
There's a lot that goes on under the radar, with a lot of people (usually most of the masses) scratching their heads as to how & why these things happen
OIL OIL OIL OIL OIL....................you get the picture!
If you go back to the last gulf war 2 in 2003, most people will most likely think that that gulf war 2 happened due to 9/11, it didn't, remember, we were ALL lied to by the UK and USA govts, Weapons of Mass Destruction (which were never found, because they didn't exist!) was used as the "convincer" to get politicians to agree and support a war - Saddam Hussain in 2000 decided to price OIL in EUROS, rather that the good old US Dollar, THAT, was the real reason for gulf war 2 invasion by the USA and if we look right NOW to Venezuela, guess what it is all about, OIL, under the pre-text of drugs, smuggling, justice etc, its all about the OIL
Once the rest of the world decides to decouple from the US Dollar, it will be game over for the mighty state - the question is, will they or won't they have the balls to ditch the US$?
Stock markets should be overall UP to MARCH time, then you have to watch them, 4 year cycle LOW expected in the months thereafter, which should create some sort a decent buying opportunity, this move down should be a mini bear market, the good news is right now the 175/180 day cycle is UP
The reason we did not have a great Santa Rally was due to the 175/180 day cycle being DOWN into it
THT
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This is a top-up / follow on to a couple of past posts - When I make predictions, I make them INADVANCE - you can then judge following actual price action
This year the 4 year cycle is due - Refer to a few months ago for details, below is Larry Williams 4 year OCTOBER static cycle from one of his books, note the 4 year cycle is NOT static, sometimes it lands in Oct, other times it is early or late - see charts below
This cycle did NOT Invert - it simply arrived in DEC'18 due to planetary influence
Don't fall for this cycle being fixed, it isn't, you need to have some lee-way
anyway, refer back to the post I did on the 4 year cycle and you should be able to tie it all together
There is a website called Time & Price - which is brilliant, it posts a lot of really interesting stuff, especially on the time side and planetary things
This is a screenshot from that site and twitter account of a analyst (I don't do twitter)
This fits into the 4 year cycle low about and with my Spring'26 high/top prediction - my forecasts align with this cycle, but my forecasts are NOT this cycle, they just happen to align, which is reassuring
There is also other timing for a summer low point
This is how the old short-term cycle turned out - next 2 charts - trend should be biased UPWARDS overall into the Spring'26
the 160 trading day cycle turned this one up - you usually get a ABC or ABCDE down swing move with this cycle - this will be replicated if you use an Indicator that is aligned to price swings as shown in the chart
Price moved up in line with the cycle projection
Obviously trade/Invest at your own risk and if in doubt don't commit funds - information for the old "educational purposes only" warning
This year the 4 year cycle is due - Refer to a few months ago for details, below is Larry Williams 4 year OCTOBER static cycle from one of his books, note the 4 year cycle is NOT static, sometimes it lands in Oct, other times it is early or late - see charts below
This cycle did NOT Invert - it simply arrived in DEC'18 due to planetary influence
Don't fall for this cycle being fixed, it isn't, you need to have some lee-way
anyway, refer back to the post I did on the 4 year cycle and you should be able to tie it all together
There is a website called Time & Price - which is brilliant, it posts a lot of really interesting stuff, especially on the time side and planetary things
This is a screenshot from that site and twitter account of a analyst (I don't do twitter)
This fits into the 4 year cycle low about and with my Spring'26 high/top prediction - my forecasts align with this cycle, but my forecasts are NOT this cycle, they just happen to align, which is reassuring
There is also other timing for a summer low point
This is how the old short-term cycle turned out - next 2 charts - trend should be biased UPWARDS overall into the Spring'26
the 160 trading day cycle turned this one up - you usually get a ABC or ABCDE down swing move with this cycle - this will be replicated if you use an Indicator that is aligned to price swings as shown in the chart
Price moved up in line with the cycle projection
Obviously trade/Invest at your own risk and if in doubt don't commit funds - information for the old "educational purposes only" warning
THT
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If you've read the blog properly, you'll know the fun and games the markets work out to - you will also understand that at certain points during a markets journey it will highlight geometric levels, in both TIME & PRICE
Due to the (up until now) nature of the USA markets, they have only ever GROWN - that means major swing HIGHS get taken out at some stage - depending upon where you are within the growth process / cycle - the big bear markets take LONGER to recover from due to what price and TIME HAVE to do during those periods - this is why it is important to understand the times when UP turns to DOWN [shown on page 1 of this thread]
This is the fun and games that the Nasdaq has been playing over the past few years - again many features of geometry have already been published in this thread that appear in the chart below
Notice price found support very close [not exactly] to 38.2% decline from the 2021 high / this was also very close [not exact] to 61.8% retracement level of the up trend from 2020-2021 / Time wise price changed trend on 52.6% and 61.8% timing of the prior major trend from 2020-2021 / This support zone was bang on the extended angle through the 75% retracement level of the prior trend/Gann Box / 2025 price plunge fell to the prior main swing high labelled B and bounced [Gann trading method]
I have put the 44.7% [internal ratio of the Square root of 5] and run an extended trendline through it - seems to be pretty important eh!
As I've said before the market KNOWS where it is going and when, it just forgets to inform us!
Remember that OCT 2022 LOW was also the expected 4 year low cycle too - once the market builds its geometric structure, it turns and reverses
anyway, this was just to show you the hidden geometry, that 99.99% of people will never look at, but the market works out too, in its "random" moves
I appreciate that this is way beyond what most people want to apply and analyse
Due to the (up until now) nature of the USA markets, they have only ever GROWN - that means major swing HIGHS get taken out at some stage - depending upon where you are within the growth process / cycle - the big bear markets take LONGER to recover from due to what price and TIME HAVE to do during those periods - this is why it is important to understand the times when UP turns to DOWN [shown on page 1 of this thread]
This is the fun and games that the Nasdaq has been playing over the past few years - again many features of geometry have already been published in this thread that appear in the chart below
- Take a decent trending section and Gann Box it [Green Box in the chart]
- Run % levels from the HIGH
- Run Retracement levels of the prior trend
- Run Timing retracement levels of the prior trend
- Run EXTENDED ANGLES of the Gann Box and Retracement levels [just left the key ones on] from the start of the trend/Gann box
- Run horizontal trendline from previous swing high
Notice price found support very close [not exactly] to 38.2% decline from the 2021 high / this was also very close [not exact] to 61.8% retracement level of the up trend from 2020-2021 / Time wise price changed trend on 52.6% and 61.8% timing of the prior major trend from 2020-2021 / This support zone was bang on the extended angle through the 75% retracement level of the prior trend/Gann Box / 2025 price plunge fell to the prior main swing high labelled B and bounced [Gann trading method]
I have put the 44.7% [internal ratio of the Square root of 5] and run an extended trendline through it - seems to be pretty important eh!
As I've said before the market KNOWS where it is going and when, it just forgets to inform us!
Remember that OCT 2022 LOW was also the expected 4 year low cycle too - once the market builds its geometric structure, it turns and reverses
anyway, this was just to show you the hidden geometry, that 99.99% of people will never look at, but the market works out too, in its "random" moves
I appreciate that this is way beyond what most people want to apply and analyse