Thanks, that's a pretty clear roadmap on its own. If I were starting again, I'd devote more time to cycles. I'm settled into what I do these days. That said, this has huge value as an overlay for my own reading of things. Please let us know if you ever start a subscription service.
THT
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Great - Whatever works for you, we are all built differently - the aim is to profit, who cares how we do it, as long as its positive!
If you look at cycles start with Jim Hurst and Brian Millard - for the generic gist of things, but don't let them interrupt a profitable method, they have to add to it, not compete with it
I reckon I only know a fraction of what some out there know - there'll be some who can nail pretty much most swings in terms of price & time
I was just lucky in that I stumbled on cycles in 2010 and it made a bit of sense to me - enough to explore
Thanks for reading, appreciated
THT
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Quick look at the next possible LOW
PLEASE NOTE the fun and games that the market does on a 2 Dimensional price chart
This chart shows the 175/180 trading day cycle - With cycles you HAVE to calculate the LENGTH, the AMPLITUDE AND probably the most Important aspect the PHASING - the 1st chart below does just that to account for the 3D moves
This chart is not 100% exact, but it is pretty damn good - good enough anyway
The next low comes in DECEMBER'25
This is where it goes wrong on normal price charts
This is the cycle - the vertical lines are the corresponding cycle in the chart above
BUT notice the TIME BARS BETWEEN each cycle - they VARY - this is where it becomes guess work and we don't like guessing in this game/business!
Assuming the current sequence continues, this is the ZONE the static cycle should land within(GREEN and RED vertical lines
This is OK, but its fairly WIDE in TIME and has you second guessing
I appreciate you do not have the cycle software that I do, I just wanted to show you how it looks in the real 2D world we are forced to view price action on
Hopefully you can see why we often get those time counts that vary - my cycle software takes account of part of the 3 Dimensional nature at play
There's nothing wrong with this chart below - We can as shown place the expected min/max cycle timings on as vertical lines or we could place a timing band type Indicator on the chart
One thing is certain, "IF" the cycle continues, you'll get price declining below the 10 SMA into the cycle low and then above the 10 SMA out of it
So if/when you discover cycles - work out the min and max timing over a number of occurrences, that will give you timing bands to work within/watch for a cycle turn point etc
We don't know what type of price moves will follow, you could have straight up/down, laboured swings or even a tired lacklustre sideways move!
Which is why we need trading methods and plans & rules etc and the crucial stop
PLEASE NOTE the fun and games that the market does on a 2 Dimensional price chart
This chart shows the 175/180 trading day cycle - With cycles you HAVE to calculate the LENGTH, the AMPLITUDE AND probably the most Important aspect the PHASING - the 1st chart below does just that to account for the 3D moves
This chart is not 100% exact, but it is pretty damn good - good enough anyway
The next low comes in DECEMBER'25
This is where it goes wrong on normal price charts
This is the cycle - the vertical lines are the corresponding cycle in the chart above
BUT notice the TIME BARS BETWEEN each cycle - they VARY - this is where it becomes guess work and we don't like guessing in this game/business!
Assuming the current sequence continues, this is the ZONE the static cycle should land within(GREEN and RED vertical lines
This is OK, but its fairly WIDE in TIME and has you second guessing
I appreciate you do not have the cycle software that I do, I just wanted to show you how it looks in the real 2D world we are forced to view price action on
Hopefully you can see why we often get those time counts that vary - my cycle software takes account of part of the 3 Dimensional nature at play
There's nothing wrong with this chart below - We can as shown place the expected min/max cycle timings on as vertical lines or we could place a timing band type Indicator on the chart
One thing is certain, "IF" the cycle continues, you'll get price declining below the 10 SMA into the cycle low and then above the 10 SMA out of it
So if/when you discover cycles - work out the min and max timing over a number of occurrences, that will give you timing bands to work within/watch for a cycle turn point etc
We don't know what type of price moves will follow, you could have straight up/down, laboured swings or even a tired lacklustre sideways move!
Which is why we need trading methods and plans & rules etc and the crucial stop
Last edited:
Yes im intéressée too..🙂
THT
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No subscription plans - too much commitment on my side
Not sure on the 24th - not looked at short term recently
The "perfect" smoothed 3D cycle shown above BOTTOMS out on CHRISTMAS DAY
Until then that cycle is down - with down cycles you get down trends AND sideways moves, so it can go higher
I don't have an opinion on a top on 24th Nov - So far the market topped out along with the cycle, it also hit its head on these pre-projected geometrical levels off prior swing points
It's Impossible to be able to get EVERY swing - find something that works and just stick to it - then exploit it
This market could just go sideways, forming a range or it could go down to a retracement level - at this stage its not known, as price action unfolds, it will give clues - If it crashes hard and fast, then you can use the Gann Box angles to find support, if it slowly corrects then retracement levels, if sideways then just watch, at the end of the day, it should all align up with the cycle (If the cycle is applicable), then trends form on LOWER time-frames etc
I'm more Interested in the cycle LOW in DECEMBER'25, because some UK stocks are setting up BIG double/triple bottoms that I want to trade/Invest in one of my accounts - I'm happy to leave the minor swings of the markets at this point in time
Then the big one is next Spring'26 when the beast arrives - Last time it arrived it just fell a measly 7% - If it's the top before the 4 year low, then the fall should be fairly decent % terms
Again I'm just surmising based on knowledge - the market will show its hand accordingly at the time
Trade/Invest at ones own risk - not advice, just educational material! The old "risk" warning
Not sure on the 24th - not looked at short term recently
The "perfect" smoothed 3D cycle shown above BOTTOMS out on CHRISTMAS DAY
Until then that cycle is down - with down cycles you get down trends AND sideways moves, so it can go higher
I don't have an opinion on a top on 24th Nov - So far the market topped out along with the cycle, it also hit its head on these pre-projected geometrical levels off prior swing points
It's Impossible to be able to get EVERY swing - find something that works and just stick to it - then exploit it
This market could just go sideways, forming a range or it could go down to a retracement level - at this stage its not known, as price action unfolds, it will give clues - If it crashes hard and fast, then you can use the Gann Box angles to find support, if it slowly corrects then retracement levels, if sideways then just watch, at the end of the day, it should all align up with the cycle (If the cycle is applicable), then trends form on LOWER time-frames etc
I'm more Interested in the cycle LOW in DECEMBER'25, because some UK stocks are setting up BIG double/triple bottoms that I want to trade/Invest in one of my accounts - I'm happy to leave the minor swings of the markets at this point in time
Then the big one is next Spring'26 when the beast arrives - Last time it arrived it just fell a measly 7% - If it's the top before the 4 year low, then the fall should be fairly decent % terms
Again I'm just surmising based on knowledge - the market will show its hand accordingly at the time
Trade/Invest at ones own risk - not advice, just educational material! The old "risk" warning
THT
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This might help you a little with what and where the SP500 is heading to long term
We put a 37% swing file over price
Notice the 1970's price formation looks very similar to the 2000's - That because they are directly RELATED, we had a REPEAT - the REPEAT happens AGAIN from 2034
Notice the TIMING projection of the swings - its valid until 2034 - you have seen and read my predictions of 2034 previously in this very thread, those predictions were NOT made using this technique!
If and its a big if, price replicates the advance from 1974 to 2000, then we also have price projection levels seen - I'm 100% confident on TIME, less so on price, but it will be there or there abouts
you can very clearly see "buying the dips" works during the UP sections (when the swing file turns GREEN)
So you can see the big picture - what you would do NOW is use a 50% swing file, rather than 37% to suit the last % values of the swing DOWNS/CORRECTIONS
The only thing to seriously consider and note, is that to get the RED down swing to appear, price HAS to fall by 50% - so most of a move is already formed when the red line forms - this is why its key to KNOW by way of TIMING when these big turns are due, then you can just watch and wait for price action to make small formations in the direction of the anticipated price direction to appear and then trade them
You can devise your own trading strategy or Investments around this, all I'm showing you is how the SP500 has worked to swings of 37% since the 1970's - they key is the TIMING, as, once Time runs out, the trend changes and when trends change it also forces swing files to change that work out to that particular trend
As markets are fractal.................................
ALL markets will work out to some % swing file size and those % sizes will differ depending upon the time-frame looking at and to be fair the SP500 just moves great, nice and easy
Obviously with the SP500, the best time to buy and hold is on the 2nd down swing LOW - such as 1974 and 2009 - which circa 34 years apart - just add 34 to 2009 and you will be there or there abouts and you know that there should be at least 2 red down 50% moves after 2034 - So you can formulate something to work on and watch
The key is the TIMING, anything price action wise that seems to undermine the time analysis, will need to be looked at, as the TIMING is king here
We put a 37% swing file over price
Notice the 1970's price formation looks very similar to the 2000's - That because they are directly RELATED, we had a REPEAT - the REPEAT happens AGAIN from 2034
Notice the TIMING projection of the swings - its valid until 2034 - you have seen and read my predictions of 2034 previously in this very thread, those predictions were NOT made using this technique!
If and its a big if, price replicates the advance from 1974 to 2000, then we also have price projection levels seen - I'm 100% confident on TIME, less so on price, but it will be there or there abouts
you can very clearly see "buying the dips" works during the UP sections (when the swing file turns GREEN)
So you can see the big picture - what you would do NOW is use a 50% swing file, rather than 37% to suit the last % values of the swing DOWNS/CORRECTIONS
The only thing to seriously consider and note, is that to get the RED down swing to appear, price HAS to fall by 50% - so most of a move is already formed when the red line forms - this is why its key to KNOW by way of TIMING when these big turns are due, then you can just watch and wait for price action to make small formations in the direction of the anticipated price direction to appear and then trade them
You can devise your own trading strategy or Investments around this, all I'm showing you is how the SP500 has worked to swings of 37% since the 1970's - they key is the TIMING, as, once Time runs out, the trend changes and when trends change it also forces swing files to change that work out to that particular trend
As markets are fractal.................................
ALL markets will work out to some % swing file size and those % sizes will differ depending upon the time-frame looking at and to be fair the SP500 just moves great, nice and easy
Obviously with the SP500, the best time to buy and hold is on the 2nd down swing LOW - such as 1974 and 2009 - which circa 34 years apart - just add 34 to 2009 and you will be there or there abouts and you know that there should be at least 2 red down 50% moves after 2034 - So you can formulate something to work on and watch
The key is the TIMING, anything price action wise that seems to undermine the time analysis, will need to be looked at, as the TIMING is king here
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